Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2026

Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 12, 2026Pima County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 12, 2026, 3:57 PM MST for Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 12, 2026, 3:57 PM MST (22:57 UTC)
Expired: Jul 12, 2026, 6:08 PM MST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Pima County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 40 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 178 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 682 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -95 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1861 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

955 
WGUS55 KTWC 122257
FFWTWC
AZC019-130200-
/O.NEW.KTWC.FF.W.0016.260712T2257Z-260713T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
357 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

The National Weather Service in Tucson has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  East Central Pima County in southeastern Arizona...

* Until 700 PM MST.

* At 357 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 1 inch of rain has fallen.
  Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned
  area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
           drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tucson, Tanque Verde, Vail, Saguaro National Park East and Rita
  Ranch.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 10 between mile markers 271 and 282. Route 83 near mile
marker 58.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Harrison Rd at Pantano Wash, Agua Caliente Wash from Soldier Trl to
Fort Lowell, Wentworth Rd at Tanque Verde Wash, Tanque Verde Loop Rd
at Tanque Verde Wash, Old Spanish Trl at Rincon Creek, Camino Loma
Alta at Rincon Creek, Freeman Rd between Broadway and Old Spanish
Trail, Limberlost Rd from Soilder Trail to Homestead Ave and Old
Spanish Trail at Jeremy Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3236 11071 3225 11076 3208 11086 3199 11069
      3206 11062 3230 11056 3239 11056 3238 11062
      3238 11067

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

JRM

2 follow-up statements

604 
WGUS75 KTWC 130005
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
505 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

AZC019-130200-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-260713T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
505 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

At 505 PM MST, Earlier heavy rain has ended, but light to moderate
rain showers continue. Flash flooding remains a threat for areas
within the warning.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tucson, Tanque Verde, Vail, Saguaro National Park East and Rita
  Ranch.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 271 and 279.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Wentworth Rd at Tanque Verde Wash, Old Spanish Trl at Rincon Creek,
Camino Loma Alta at Rincon Creek, Freeman Rd between Broadway and Old
Spanish Trail and Old Spanish Trail at Jeremy Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 11074 3219 11078 3209 11085 3202 11073
      3206 11068 3219 11064 3225 11062

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

JRM

353 
WGUS75 KTWC 130108
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
608 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

AZC019-130118-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-260713T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
608 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 11074 3219 11078 3209 11085 3202 11073
      3206 11068 3219 11064 3225 11062

$$

JRM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 12, 12:05 PM MST, 3 hours 52 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, bringing a threat of strong to severe wind gusts with blowing dust and periods of heavy rainfall. An isolated flash flooding threat will also come with this activity. Greater coverage of thunderstorms will generally be through Pinal, Pima, and Santa Cruz counties with lowest coverage in eastern Cochise county.
Thunderstorm chances will continue daily through the upcoming week with day to day variability in location and severity. High temperatures are forecast to sit around to just below normal Monday onwards.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 12:05 PM MST, 3 hours 52 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1205 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
  evening, bringing a threat of strong to severe wind gusts with
  blowing dust and periods of heavy rainfall. An isolated flash
  flooding threat will also come with this activity. Greater
  coverage of thunderstorms will generally be through Pinal,
  Pima, and Santa Cruz counties with lowest coverage in eastern
  Cochise county.

- Thunderstorm chances will continue daily through the upcoming
  week with day to day variability in location and severity.
  High temperatures are forecast to sit around to just below
  normal Monday onwards.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm activity will return this afternoon and evening,
bringing a threat of strong to severe wind gusts, blowing dust,
and flash flooding. Thunderstorm chances will be greater in
Pinal, Pima, and Santa Cruz counties with more isolated activity
in eastern locations closer to the New Mexico border.
Thunderstorm chances will continue through the upcoming week
across southeastern Arizona with day to day variability in
location and severity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A field of cumulus clouds is developing areas Tucson eastward
with a few small thunderstorms are beginning to develop along
the AZ/NM border. Surface dewpoints are now in the 50s out east
gradually increasing into the low 60s in western Pima county
with satellite derived PWATs around 1.4 to 1.6 inches. High PWAT
is also shown in the 12Z upper air sounding launched in Phoenix
with a value of 1.84 inches. Severe, organized thunderstorms
are expected again this afternoon and evening. Forecast
soundings continue to depict inverted-V soundings producing
DCAPE between 1500-1800 J/kg. This instability combined with up
to 20-25 kts of effective shear will be conducive to severe,
organized thunderstorms. The 12Z HREF highlights an area from
Tucson westward up to Phoenix of 10-30% chance for greater than
50 knot (58 mph) winds this afternoon into the evening. The 12Z
issuance of the day 1 outlook produced by SPC has expanded the
slight risk westward to now include all of the Tohono O'odham
Nation. WPC maintains our area to be in marginal risk for
excessive rainfall. Slower storm motion of 10 to 15 mph and
ample moisture will preclude a widespread flash flooding threat,
heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are likely with
any thunderstorm. Storms will begin to initiate around 1 to 2 pm
this afternoon in Cochise/ eastern Pima county gradually
pushing westward as the evening progresses.

Tomorrow, ample moisture will remain in place as the high
pressure center oscillates around the Four Corners. The
ingredients for severe weather are not as pronounced as they
have been the past few days but still present for tomorrow.
Inverted-V soundings are producing DCAPE around 1100-1300 J/kg.
12Z HREF has a 50-70% chance for 30 knot (35 mph) wind gusts
therefore strong to severe winds will be a concern. SPC has our
area in general risk for severe thunderstorms. Suitable
moisture in place will also lead to localized flash flooding
with stronger thunderstorms with rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.5
inches per hour possible. WPC has our are in marginal risk for
excessive rainfall.

Healthy precipitable water values should remain in the area as
mean flow continues out of the east, though shear should come
down a bit by Tuesday as wind speeds aloft decrease with the
ridge becoming further displaced to the northeast. Daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
week with day to day variability in locations and severity.
Though there is some discrepancy in timing, ensemble models
continue to show signs of an easterly wave arriving mid to late
in the week, which would enhance thunderstorm chances. This wave
along with the northern displacement of the ridge would bring
high temperatures down below normal, with best chances of lower
high temperatures currently falling Friday through the coming
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 14/00Z.

Thunderstorm activity expected to develop after 12/20Z,
especially near a KAVQ-KTUS-KOLS line. Scattered thunderstorms
will then move west through the afternoon and evening. Severe
wind gusts and blowing dust may accompany any thunderstorm along
with heavy rain and mountain obscurations. Thunderstorm
activity will decrease in coverage after 13/03Z with isolated
light SHRA/-TSRA into the overnight hours. Surface winds in
eastern areas including KSAD- KDUG continue east/southeast after
increasing to 9-14 kts with gusts to 20 kts aft 13/15Z while
winds elsewhere generally remain light and under 10 kts outside
of thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered thunderstorms expected to redevelop this afternoon,
especially through Pinal, Pima, and Santa Cruz counties.
Isolated activity in eastern areas. Any thunderstorm will likely
bring strong and erratic winds with a few becoming severe. Winds
outside of thunderstorms today will become east to southeast
10-15 mph with gusts to 22 mph in Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise
counties, with more light and variable winds to the west. With
moisture on the rise today, minimum relative humidities will be
above 20-30 percent across the area and increasing further in
the coming several days. Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms are forecast through the upcoming week with day to
day variability.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MST
this evening for AZZ501>505.

&&

Malarkey/ Edwards

Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 12, 10:16 AM MST, 5 hours 41 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1016 AM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Dust Storm       13 SE Eloy              32.64N 111.38W
07/11/2026                   Pinal              AZ   Public

            Delayed report. Near zero visibility
            reported near Picacho Peak due to dust.

&&

KLM

Local storm report, Jul 12, 10:56 AM MST, 5 hours 1 minute before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1056 AM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 NE Tucson             32.25N 110.82W
07/11/2026                   Pima               AZ   Public

            Delayed report. 8 inch tree limb down.

&&

KLM

Local storm report, Jul 12, 12:33 PM MST, 3 hours 24 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1233 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     Flash Flood      Oracle                  32.61N 110.78W
07/11/2026                   Pinal              AZ   Public

            Flash flooding around Lavender Farms with
            roads impassable and two picnic tables
            damaged and washed downstream. Time
            estimated based on radar.

&&

JRM

Local storm report, Jul 12, 12:54 PM MST, 3 hours 3 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1254 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     Flash Flood      1 SE Oracle             32.61N 110.77W
07/11/2026                   Pinal              AZ   Public

            Flash flooding in Oracle Park, causing
            damage to community gardens and appears to
            flood at least one small building.

&&

JRM

Local storm report, Jul 12, 1:42 PM MST, 2 hours 15 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
142 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 ESE Tucson            32.16N 110.83W
07/11/2026                   Pima               AZ   Public

            Several instances of minor roof damage.
            Shingle loss and roofing material peeled
            back verified through photos. Numerous
            reports of large tree branches snapped and
            or uprooted trees.

&&

JRM

Local storm report, Jul 12, 3:15 PM MST, 42 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
315 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 W Benson              31.96N 110.40W
07/12/2026  M58 MPH          Cochise            AZ   Public

            Personal weather station recorded 58 MPH
            wind gust.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 11, 5:02 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pinal	28 min
Jul 11, 5:02 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	28 min
Jul 11, 5:27 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pinal	48 min
Jul 11, 5:28 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	32 min
Jul 11, 5:57 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	48 min
Jul 11, 6:00 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	118 min
Jul 11, 6:17 PM MST	Dust Storm Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	88 min
Jul 11, 6:34 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	TWC	Pima	28 min
Jul 11, 6:38 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pinal	3 hr
Jul 11, 6:58 PM MST	Dust Storm Warning	TWC	Pima	92 min
Jul 11, 7:33 PM MST	Dust Storm Warning	TWC	Pinal	84 min
Jul 11, 7:57 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima, Pinal	2 hr
Jul 11, 8:00 PM MST	Dust Storm Warning	TWC	Pima	109 min
Jul 11, 8:31 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	22 min
Jul 12, 7:59 AM MST	Blowing Dust Advisory	TWC	Pima, Pinal, Santa Cruz	12 hr
Jul 12, 2:31 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	29 min
Jul 12, 3:12 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise, Pima	48 min
Jul 12, 3:24 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	TWC	Pima	51 min
Jul 12, 3:47 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	43 min
Jul 12, 3:58 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	39 min
Jul 12, 4:00 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	45 min
Jul 12, 4:15 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	2 hr
Jul 12, 4:25 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	35 min
Jul 12, 4:30 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	97 min
Jul 12, 4:30 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	45 min
Jul 12, 4:37 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pinal	38 min
Jul 12, 4:41 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pinal	2 hr
Jul 12, 4:45 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	2 hr
Jul 12, 4:56 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	19 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2026 Every flash flood warning in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.