Flash Flood Warning 154, NWS Tucson, AZ

378 
WGUS75 KTWC 280040
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
540 PM MST Thu Aug 27 2026

AZC023-280050-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0154.000000T0000Z-260828T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
540 PM MST Thu Aug 27 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3156 11085 3149 11089 3149 11093 3147 11093
      3147 11089 3148 11085 3145 11077 3145 11076
      3152 11079

$$

DVS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
216 PM MST Thu Aug 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoon pattern ramps up as early as today and settles
in through the weekend with daily thunderstorm chances. High
temperatures will remain well above normal through the week with an
Extreme Heat Warning in effect for much of southeast Arizona.
Temperatures are forecast to fall to near normal Sunday through
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently, storms are beginning to form in the Sky Islands
across Southeastern Arizona. Through this afternoon and evening
storms will move off the terrain into the valleys and move West
to Northwest at 10-15 kts. Main impacts from storms today are
primarily strong outflow winds at 40-60 mph that can loft areas
of blowing dust and reduce visibilities. With this modest storm
motion, flash flooding will be isolated and mainly limited to
backbuilding/training thunderstorms across the area.

Looking at tomorrow, it will all depend on how strong and
widespread the thunderstorm activity we see today. Some CAMs
like the HRRR is more ambitious with scattered thunderstorms
across much of Southeastern Arizona, but if the area is worked
over enough from the activity today, that will keep much of the
stronger storm activity at a minimum. If there are storms,
hazards will be similar to today with the stronger wind gusts,
then flash flooding.

This weekend continues to look more active, but still unclear
which day will be more impactful out of the two days. As the
area of high pressure begins to move east and trough digs down
to our west, this synoptic forcing will allow for longer lived
storms. As the upper level flow shifts SW, ample moisture will
come into the area, increasing PWs to 1.5 inches in Tucson by
Saturday. This increase in moisture will switch the primary
hazard to flash flooding.

The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through Saturday with
the hottest temperatures through Friday. Temperatures will lower
to near normal levels Sunday into next week, with perhaps Monday
even coming in slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 29/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds mainly 10k-13k ft for the period with isolated
to scattered SHRA/TSRA between now thru 28/09Z and again aft
28/19Z thru the end of the period. Thunderstorms have the
potential to produce strong wind gusts, but otherwise surface
winds light and terrain driven outside of a few afternoon gusts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with an
active period expected today through Monday (30 to 70 percent
daily thunderstorm chances). Temperatures will remain well above
normal today with a cooling trend this weekend into early next
week. Minimum relative humidity values mainly 10 to 20 percent
in the valleys and 20 to 30 percent in the mountains through
Friday. Minimum RH values increase to 20 to 40 percent starting
Saturday in valleys and 30 to 50 percent in the mountains. Winds
will generally remain less than 15 mph and terrain driven
through the week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ501>509.

&&

JT

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1138 AM MST Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     Hail             10 NW Rio Rico          31.59N 111.09W
08/26/2026  M0.75 Inch       Santa Cruz         AZ   Cocorahs

            Delayed Report. Penny sized hail with no
            reported damage.

&&

JVT