Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Tucson, AZ

551 
WGUS75 KTWC 120003
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
503 PM MST Sat Jul 11 2026

AZC023-120013-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260712T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
503 PM MST Sat Jul 11 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

Flash flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please
continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3163 11092 3159 11099 3148 11099 3143 11079
      3150 11075 3157 11076

$$

CWR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
213 PM MST Sat Jul 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active monsoon day is likely today across southeastern
  Arizona. Thunderstorms should initially develop this afternoon
  over high terrain and eastern areas closer to the New Mexico
  border and Santa Cruz Counties, with chances transitioning
  westward through the late afternoon and evening hours. Strong
  to severe wind gusts producing blowing dust will be possible,
  with thunderstorms also potentially producing flash flooding
  and hail.

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible again on Sunday, bringing
  the potential for severe wind gusts, blowing dust, and flash
  flooding.

- Thunderstorm chances will continue daily through the upcoming
  week with day to day variability in location and severity.
  High temperatures are forecast to sit around to just below
  normal Monday onwards.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm activity will increase through the
afternoon and evening hours across southeastern Arizona. Severe
wind gusts, blowing dust, hail, and flash flooding will be
possible with any thunderstorm today. Thunderstorm chances will
continue through the upcoming week across southeastern Arizona
with day to day variability in location and severity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have begun to form over the White
Mountains and Chiricahuas and in Santa Cruz County. These will
be the favored areas for thunderstorm development over the next
couple of hours. Aloft, high pressure is centered over the Four
Corners and Rocky Mountains keeping southeast Arizona under
moist easterly flow. GOES total precipitable water ranges from
1.6" in western Pima County to 1.25" along the AZ/NM border,
which is 25-50 percent above normal. Mid-level flow is elevated with
winds at 500 mb between 20-30 kts. This will help lead to 0-6
km wind shear values between 15-30 kts this afternoon and
evening across southeast Arizona. SBCAPE values are around 750
J/kg and and will likely reach as high as 1500 J/kg for portions
of southeast Arizona. Low levels are also dry with DCAPE values
around 1500 J/kg. All of these ingredients will lead to an
active monsoon day with severe wind gusts, hail, heavy rainfall,
and blowing dust all a threat. The SPC and WPC both have
southeast Arizona under slight risks for severe weather and
excessive rainfall.

This afternoon expect further development over the higher
terrain south and east of Tucson with storms moving into the
lower elevations by mid to late afternoon. As this happens there
will be a severe wind gust and blowing dust threat, especially
near dust prone areas along I-10 east of Tucson. By late
afternoon/early evening CAMs show convection mainly outflow
driven with storms over eastern Pima County and southeast Pinal
County. However there are a couple HREF members that show
convection over the Tucson area by mid-afternoon, so a slight
chance storms begin earlier than this evening for Tucson. Severe
wind gusts and blowing dust will continue to be a threat as
storms progress westward. Also, with the wind shear in place
storms with stronger and possibly rotating updrafts will be
capable of hail and wind gusts in excess of 70 mph. The heavy
rainfall and flash flooding threat will cover most of southeast
Arizona, but the best chances for heavy rainfall will be over
Santa Cruz County and southwest Cochise County. Storms in these
areas will be capable of 1"-2" an hour and some of these areas
have already received rainfall over the past few days.

Storms are expected to dissipate by midnight with skies clearing
out overnight into the morning. Atmospheric conditions will will
be similar Sunday to today with the main difference being breezy
easterly surface winds along the AZ/NM border. This area does
dry out some with dewpoints dropping to around 50 degrees and
PWAT around an inch. However the rest of the area remains moist.
CAMs are showing a slightly earlier start tomorrow for most of
the area with initiation around noon or 1 PM from Tucson
eastward, excluding eastern Cochise County. By mid-afternoon hi-
res guidance shows a broken line of storms from the Mogollon
Rim down to Nogales. These storms will progress westward through
the late afternoon and evening, potentially reaching all the
way to Ajo. The main threats will again be severe wind gusts,
blowing dust, hail, and heavy rainfall. If storms do organize as
CAMs are suggesting they could generate a large area of blowing
dust that moves through Pima, Pinal, and Maricopa Counties.

Early into mid next week the high moves further north over the
northern Great Plains which decreases 500 mb flow to around 10
knots by Tuesday. However flow will still be out of the east
which will keep PWAT values 25-50 percent above normal through
the work week. Expect daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms
with day to day variability in coverage. Deterministic models
are also hinting at a weak upper level low moving through the
region mid-week, which could enhance storm activity. With the
center of the high so far displaced high temperatures will cool
to a couple degrees below normal Monday into the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/00Z.
SCT-BKN cigs 8k-12k ft AGL this afternoon and evening with cloud
slowly clearing after midnight. Scattered TSRA expected
initially over the higher terrain this afternoon moving into the
lower deserts by late afternoon. Any thunderstorm will bring
low visibility along with the threat of severe wind gusts, hail,
and blowing dust. Thunderstorm activity more likely near KDUG-
KOLS now into the evening and near KTUS after 12/00Z. Scattered
showers and thunderstorm chances decrease by late evening with
isolated activity lingering late west of KTUS- KOLS. Surface
winds outside of thunderstorms west to northwest 8-13 kts this
afternoon and evening becoming light and terrain driven
overnight. Expect another round of scattered TSRA with
terminals possibly being impacted by 12/20Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
across much of southeastern Arizona today. Any thunderstorm
will likely bring strong and erratic wind gusts, a few
potentially becoming severe. Winds outside of thunderstorm
activity will become mainly be west to northwest 10-15 mph this
afternoon with gusts up to 22 mph. Areas along the AZ/NM border
and the Gila River Valley will see breezy easterly winds Sunday
through Tuesday with areas elsewhere following normal diurnal
winds. Winds become easterly over most of the area Wednesday.
Moisture will be on the rise through the coming days as an
active monsoon pattern will set up. Minimum relative humidity
will be lowest in the Gila River Valley today at around 16
percent, but otherwise above 20-30 percent elsewhere with
further increases into early next week. Daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the coming week
with day to day variability.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MST
this evening for AZZ501>506.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening for
AZZ507>509.

&&

Hardin

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