Flash Flood Warning 124, NWS Tucson, AZ

311 
WGUS75 KTWC 110346
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
846 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

AZC009-110630-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0124.000000T0000Z-260811T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Graham AZ-
846 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY...

At 846 PM MST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1
and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to
1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban
         areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Safford, Thatcher, Roper Lake State Park, Mount Graham, Frye Mesa
  Dam, Fort Grant and Swift Trail Junction.

This includes the following highways...
Route 191 between mile markers 112 and 118. Route 266 near mile
marker 121...and between mile markers 125 and 126.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Frye Creek, Twilight Creek, Jacobson Creek, Gila River, Gibson
  Creek, Ash Creek, Stockton Wash, Noon Creek and Marijilda Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 10993 3274 11006 3283 10984 3280 10970
      3271 10968

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

KJS

099 
WGUS75 KTWC 110628
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1128 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

AZC009-110638-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0124.000000T0000Z-260811T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Graham AZ-
1128 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 10993 3274 11006 3283 10984 3280 10970
      3271 10968

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
Issued by National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
208 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect daily chances of showers and thunderstorms much of this
week. While there will be day to day variability, Monday and
Wednesday look to be the most active days. Storm coverage will
be much less Friday into the weekend. High temperatures will be
near normal today and Tuesday with additional lowering to around
3 to 6 degrees below normal Wednesday and Thursday before
temperatures warm again into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 2 PM, thunderstorms are beginning to initiate in the
expected areas in the White and Chirichua Mountains. Activity is
expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon
and evening. The multi-hazard impacts of severe winds and flash
flooding are still on track.

Looking to tomorrow, there can be another day of multi-hazard
impacts of severe wind and flash flooding. For the strong to
severe winds, the latest 11/15Z U of A WRF HRRR (usually the
most bullish of the models) is showing the potential for a line
of thunderstorms forming forming from initial activity the
Huachucha Mountains/Santa Cruz County moving northwest towards
the Tucson Metro into Central Pima and Pinal Counties. This is
the reasonable worst case scenario, with the more likely
scenario being thunderstorms being strong to severe but more
scattered in nature, not in a formal line. The 11/12Z HREF is
showing a 10% probability of 50 kts within 40 km in mainly
Cochise County with this run. I wouldn't be surprised if future
HREF runs spreads this contour westward as it accounts for the
HRRR's latest runs that are latching onto more activity and
stronger outflow winds. Moisture from the west and south moves
back into the eastern valleys, allowing for more of a flash
flood threat for areas Tucson eastward. The 11/12Z HREF is
highlighting these areas for 3 hour probabilities of storm
totals between 1-2 inches, with a localized threat for 3 inches.

The elevated monsoonal pattern continues into Thursday this week
with day to day variability. With the high pressure staying in
the four corners region, the easterly flow aloft will keep the
ability for the afternoon/early evening activity to move out of
the area and allow for the atmosphere to recharge each night.
The only caveat to this would be any overnight convection that
could hamper and/or shut down the activity for the next day.

On the bright side, the increased thunderstorm activity will
'cool' high temperatures, especially Tuesday through Thursday.
Temperatures begin to warm up Friday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/00Z.
Now thru 11/06z, SCT -SHRA/-TSRA with clouds 8-12k ft AGL.
Isold vsbys 1SM +TSRA. Gusty erratic winds of 35-50 kts possible
with any thunderstorm. Outside of storms SFC winds WLY/NWLY at
8-12 kts with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 kts this
afternoon and evening. Aft 11/06z, ISOLD -SHRA mainly W of KTUS
diminishing. Lower cloud decks also diminishing. SFC winds light
and terrain driven after 11/06Z. Additional SHRA/TSRA chances
aft 11/18Z thru the end of the period. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
through Thursday with less coverage Friday into next weekend.
Minimum relative humidity will be 20-40 percent Monday through
Thursday lowering to around 15-30 percent thereafter.
Temperatures will be near normal through Tuesday, dropping to
below normal Wednesday and Thursday, then warming again next
weekend. Outside of thunderstorms, winds terrain driven to
around 10 mph with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 2 PM MST this afternoon through this evening
for AZZ501>506-514-515.

Flood Watch from 2 PM MST Tuesday through 11 PM MST Tuesday for
AZZ503-504-507>509-511>514.

&&

JT

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
654 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     8 ENE Tucson            32.22N 110.75W
08/10/2026  M66 MPH          Pima               AZ   Mesonet

            Personal weather station gusted to 66 mph.

&&

JVT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
719 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SE Tucson             32.17N 110.87W
08/10/2026  M59 MPH          Pima               AZ   ASOS

            ASOS station KDMA Davis Monthan AFB.

&&

JVT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
753 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     7 NNW Willcox           32.35N 109.86W
08/10/2026  M66 MPH          Cochise            AZ   Mesonet

            Personal weather station gusted to 66 mph.

&&

JVT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
809 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     7 N Green Valley        31.95N 110.98W
08/10/2026  M59 MPH          Pima               AZ   Public

&&