Severe Thunderstorm Warning 367, NWS Tulsa, OK

898 
WWUS54 KTSA 121635
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1135 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

OKC143-145-121645-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0367.000000T0000Z-260912T1645Z/
Wagoner OK-Tulsa OK-
1135 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND EAST
CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1145 AM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 9581 3616 9568 3613 9559 3599 9574
      3613 9588 3620 9582
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 312DEG 15KT 3611 9575 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

 - Thunderstorm chances return Saturday with medium confidence
   in exact placement and coverage.

 - Unseasonably hot temperatures continue this weekend through at
   least the middle of next week. Expect heat headlines at times.

 - While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 36
   hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more
   rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue
   during periods of stronger winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The rest of the ongoing overnight period should be on the quieter
side, with the afternoon and evening storms having diminished with
sunset. Overnight lows should be in the low to mid 70s in most
areas, with areas near the Kansas border and in far northwest
Arkansas dipping into the 60s.

The forecast for Saturday remains somewhat in question, with
concerns revolving around how much thunderstorm coverage occurs
tomorrow and how far south. Most of the CAMs and some of the
synoptic models are largely in agreement that a thunderstorm
complex will develop to the north and push southward into
northeast Oklahoma mid to late morning tomorrow as a mid level
disturbance drops southward through the area. If this occurs as
expected, this would likely push the afternoon thunderstorm
potential into areas near and south of I-40. This is the idea that
will be featured in this evening/s forecast. With these
expectations, areas along and south of I-40 should be hot once
again, with potential for peak heat index values above 105. A Heat
Advisory will be issued for this area Saturday, given the higher
confidence there. If the storm coverage is not as great, the
advisory may need to be expanded northward by later shifts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Somewhat higher uncertainty exists for the Saturday evening into
Sunday morning period, with another batch of thunderstorms
advertised across parts of northeast Oklahoma and into northwest
Arkansas during this time frame in association with a weak front
in the vicinity of the Kansas border. Showers and storms may
linger into the daylight hours Sunday, primarily across far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with hot and dry
weather prevailing thereafter through at least the early part of
next week. Additional heat headlines will likely be needed during
this time frame. Breezy conditions on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday
will fuel increased fire weather concerns, with the recent rains
not being nearly enough to squelch the impact of the ongoing
drought. Toward the end of next week, a cold front continues to be
advertised in the longer range models, but the timing and strength
of the front remains in question. If/when it does come through, an
increase in shower and thunderstorm potential will accompany it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period outside
of any possible convective influences. An outflow boundary
tracking south out of Kansas will likely cause a brief wind shift
with gusty northerly winds across NE OK this morning. KBVO stands
the best chances at seeing impactful wind conditions by mid to
late morning and have introduced a TEMPO group to show the wind
change. The boundary should begin to weaken and wash out as
mixing intensifies through the morning and is less likely to
impact KTUL and KRVS as much, though a brief change in direction
is still possible. Storm chances have decreased this morning, but
additional storm chances are possible late this afternoon and
evening through the end of the TAF period as a frontal boundary
stalls near the region. NE OK and NW AR sites have the best chance
at seeing convective impacts through the latter half of the TAF
period.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  74  98  78 /  20  40  10   0
FSM   99  74 101  75 /  20  20  10   0
MLC  100  75 101  76 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   94  67  98  70 /  20  40  20   0
FYV   94  68  97  71 /  20  40  20   0
BYV   93  70  95  72 /  20  40  20   0
MKO   97  71  98  73 /  20  10  10   0
MIO   93  70  95  72 /  20  40  20   0
F10   98  72 100  74 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   99  74  98  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-065-066-070-071-073>075-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ129-219-220.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
451 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-131000-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
451 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...Late Afternoon.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Primarily Along and South of I-40.
	ONSET...Midday.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers or thunderstorms could move into portions of
northeast Oklahoma this morning as a dying complex of storms drops
south out of Kansas. Severe weather is not expected with this
activity but some heavy downpours will be possible through the
morning hours. Additional thunderstorm development will be
possible along a weak boundary late Saturday afternoon and
evening. Profiles show potential for damaging downburst wind gusts
with the strongest storms as they potentially track across
northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas.

Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will build back into the
region this afternoon, particularly south of the weak boundary.
Heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees will be common this
afternoon, especially across southeast Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing early Sunday
morning across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
The severe weather threat should be waning by this time, but some
stronger storms could pose a risk of locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds. Hot weather will steadily build into the region on
Sunday through much of the next week. Heat headlines will be
likely most days across the area. A potential stronger cold front
could arrive toward the end of next week, bringing increasing
thunderstorm chances and cooler temperatures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1116 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

ARZ011-121630-
Madison AR-
1116 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY
THROUGH 1130 AM CDT...

At 1116 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
southwest of Japton, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
St. Paul...                       Crosses...
Patrick...                        Delaney...
Brashears...                      Combs...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3583 9372 3577 9385 3577 9389 3588 9395
      3600 9394 3603 9389
TIME...MOT...LOC 1616Z 327DEG 20KT 3591 9389

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1120 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

OKZ060-067-121645-
Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
1120 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND EAST
CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM CDT...

At 1120 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southwest of Catoosa, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Catoosa...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 230 and 232.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3618 9581 3616 9581 3616 9575 3613 9561
      3600 9576 3611 9589 3618 9582
TIME...MOT...LOC 1620Z 310DEG 9KT 3614 9581

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH