Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1149 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1116 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

 - Potentially more widespread severe weather threat with all
   modes possible may develop this afternoon and continue into
   early Saturday morning.

 - Continued heavy rainfall potential through Saturday morning
   with a localized flash flooding threat.

 - Dry for Sunday, but additional storm chances return early to
   middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

An active severe weather day is still anticipated over the local
area from this afternoon through tonight, though details regarding
the corridor of highest threat remain unclear. At this time, the
potential for higher-end severe weather exists, with areas east of
Highway 75 generally favored, but this threat remains highly
conditional. BLUF...residents of eastern Oklahoma and west central
and northwest AR need to remain alert to severe weather potential
and keep up with the forecast as details start to emerge over the
next several hours.

At present, a band of elevated thunderstorms continues along and
west of Highway 75 in northeast OK in a zone of low level warm
advection. Latest CAMs continue to weaken this and lift it north
into early this afternoon, which makes sense, but they have
struggled with the initialization. For the moment these remain
sub-severe, though MUCPAE of around 1000 does support a hail
threat. One signal that has emerged in the data is for additional
discrete cells to develop this afternoon within an axis of
stronger sfc-based instability that spreads north into SE OK and
eventually points north later this afternoon. Early signs of this
could be in developing convection currently across central TX,
which would lift northeast into this increasingly unstable air.
Should these sustain, this might be the best opportunity for more
significant severe weather, especially as low level jet
strengthens this evening. But again, uncertainty remains quite
high.

By late this evening and overnight, a cold front will begin to
push southeast across the local area, with additional convection
forced along this boundary. Still not clear how much the
environment will be impacted by storms today, but frontal storms
should at least pose a limited wind threat overnight, while
becoming more focused over southeast OK and into WC AR with time.
Front may tend to undercut storms which could be a limiting
factor as well.

Finally, worth noting that PWAT values well above climatology
reside over the region, and will support high rainfall rates in
more sustained convection. OVerall rainfall amounts could end up
highly variable, but at least localized 3-4" amounts are feasible
and would result in some flash flooding through tonight,
especially from SE OK through NW AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday near the
frontal zone and continue through much of the morning at least.
Lingering potential for severe weather continues, though most
storms are expected to be elevated, outside potentially areas
near the Red RIver early. Once this finally clears the area, quiet
conditions prevail Saturday night and Sunday, with a light freeze
possible Sunday morning across some of NE OK and NW AR.

Cutoff portion of upper low is forecast to eject into the
southern plains early next week with rain and thunderstorm chances
returning. Some additional flooding and severe potential will
likely exist into mid-week. Pattern is then expected to transition
back to a more settled WNW flow aloft late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue near
and west of KTUL, KRVS, and KBVO through 20Z. Ceilings of 2.5-
4kft will persist for eastern OK. Storm coverage will increase
into the afternoon and evening from southwest to northeast. Some
of the storms may be severe with large hail and damaging wind.
Storms will also produce locally heavy rainfall with lowered
visibility. Ceilings will decrease to 1.5-3 kft for much of the
area for the late afternoon and evening as well. Multiple rounds
of storms are possible until after midnight.

A cold front will then move through after midnight with
precipitation winding down behind the front. Breezy south winds
will shift to northwest. Ceilings will break up and rise into the
mid morning period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  46  61  38 /  70  60  10   0
FSM   79  58  70  43 /  60  90  60  10
MLC   77  50  66  41 /  80  80  30  10
BVO   75  41  60  33 /  60  60   0   0
FYV   78  50  67  37 /  50  80  50  10
BYV   76  55  65  38 /  50  90  50  10
MKO   77  48  62  37 /  80  80  20  10
MIO   75  45  58  36 /  60  80   0   0
F10   76  46  60  37 /  80  70  10  10
HHW   78  57  68  46 /  70  90  70  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...06

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
121 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071930-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
121 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to quickly increase in
coverage and intensity during the afternoon and evening hours.
There is a conditional threat for severe weather this afternoon
and tonight, with ongoing uncertainties relating to widespread
cloud cover and somewhat cooler air left behind from earlier
storms. But assuming storms are able to get going, large hail (2+
inches), damaging winds (70+ mph), and tornadoes may all occur.
Areas of heavy rain are likely. Storms will initially focus across
southeast OK, spreading north and east with time. Storm activity
will diminish overnight behind a cold front.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A few storms will persist into Saturday morning before completely
winding down. Sunday appears to be quiet, but another weather
system will bring storms back to the area Monday-Wednesday. Once
again, there will be the potential for severe weather and heavy
rain for much of the area. Temperatures will remain above normal
for the entire week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1121 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

OKZ054-061800-
Osage OK-
1121 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY
THROUGH NOON CST...

At 1121 AM CST, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Hominy, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Barnsdall...                      Hominy...
Wynona...                         Bartlesville Municipal Airport...
Tallant...                        Osage Hills State Park...
Pershing...                       Nelagoney...
Okesa...                          Wolco...
Avant...                          Pawhuska...
Bartlesville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 9600 3652 9600 3632 9641 3649 9650
      3680 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 225DEG 39KT 3641 9642

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
406 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

OKZ065-066-062245-
Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-
406 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND
EASTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CST...

At 406 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
southwest of Weleetka, moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bryant...                         Henryetta...
Clearview...                      Schulter...
Okmulgee State Park...            Weleetka...
Pharoah...                        Okfuskee...
Okmulgee...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 222 and
237.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for northeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 9622 3559 9586 3529 9609 3529 9630
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 200DEG 38KT 3530 9619

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
415 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

OKZ071-062245-
McIntosh OK-
415 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MCINTOSH COUNTY THROUGH
445 PM CST...

At 415 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Raiford, moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Raiford...                        Pierce...
Vivian...                         Stidham...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 248 and
261.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for southeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3520 9573 3522 9586 3552 9578 3550 9555
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 200DEG 38KT 3527 9578

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH