Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
537 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

 - Limited severe potential this afternoon and evening across
   southeast OK and part of northwest AR. Locally heavy rainfall
   likely.

 - Potentially more widespread severe weather threat may develop
   Friday into Saturday, with continued heavy rainfall potential.

 - Unsettled weather returns early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Latest moeso-analysis shows outflow boundary re-inforced by morning
elevated convection was located from roughly a Wilburton-Ft Smith-
Harrison line late this morning with a much cooler and more stable
low level airmass to the north. At least scattered additional
elevated storms are anticipated this afternoon and will pose a low-
end hail threat, which may nudge the boundary a little farther south
through the afternoon. Airmass south of the boundary characterized
by CAPE of 1000-1500 where a few breaks in cloud cover have
developed this morning.

Expectation remains that more surface based storms will develop near
the outflow/front by mid afternoon, and any such storms would pose a
large hail and damaging wind threat, however the strongest deep
layer shear remains to the north closer to the upper system moving
across the Central Plains. Generally weak low-level flow should
limit the tornado threat.

Widespread PWAT values above the 95th percentile remain over the
region and this supports efficient rain producing storms. Some
localized amounts of 2-3" may occur with stronger cells, though such
amounts are expected to remain localized. Showers and storms will
diminish from the north this evening, but at least some threat will
likely linger across southeast OK through the night into Thursday
morning, but severe threat would end by later this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Warm front lifts back north Thursday in response to approaching
stronger upper level system moving across the Great Basin, with
moist war sector airmass likely spreading north across local
forecast area. Severe weather threat becomes focused across the high
plains Thursday afternoon, and some remnants of this are likely to
push toward northeast OK by late Thursday night and early Friday
morning. While this is unlikely to be severe, it does add some
complications to Firday's forecast. Nonetheless, a more substantial
upper system is forecast to eject into the plains Friday, albeit
with the primary forcing well to our north. This will eventually
push the dry line toward eastern OK by afternoon. Overall setup does
favor more robust severe weather with all modes possible, but this
will depend on how well the environment can recover from any morning
convection. Forecasts for the Friday afternoon and evening period
will need to be closely monitored. Fairly strong cold front will
also plunge south late Friday and could force another round of
strong storms.

Overall the weekend should be cooler and drier as cold front surges
south Friday evening. Moisture does not get pursed too far south and
indications are that it would return to some degree next week. The
wet weather should mitigate overall fire weather concerns for
several days, but flood potential may begin to increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Scattered convection will continue this evening along and east of
the stationary frontal boundary stretching from near KMLC into
northwest AR near KFYV. Otherwise expect occasional light showers
to impact northeast OK terminals through 05/06Z before subsidence
occurs behind an exiting shortwave. Showers will continue
overnight at remaining sites with thunder chances becoming more
uncertain so dropped to Prob30 from 02-10Z from southeast OK into
northwest AR. IFR conditions will persist across northwest AR
overnight with ceilings lowering at remaining sites to IFR/LIFR
with persistent warm advection over the frontal boundary. Any
breaks in the clouds will prompt fog to develop maintaining poor
flying conditions through daybreak. Clouds will gradually lift
into late morning Thursday however MVFR conditions are expected to
persist through the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  72  62  76 /  50  30  50  90
FSM   59  77  61  80 / 100  80  10  60
MLC   54  76  63  77 /  90  70  30  80
BVO   45  71  57  75 /  30  20  60  80
FYV   55  74  60  76 /  90  70  20  70
BYV   57  71  60  75 / 100  60  10  50
MKO   53  72  61  75 /  80  60  30  80
MIO   50  71  60  74 /  70  40  40  70
F10   52  74  61  76 /  70  50  40  90
HHW   60  77  62  77 /  90  60  10  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
459 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-052300-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
459 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast and East Central Oklahoma as well as Northwest
		    Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will continue to develop and move northeast across
southeast and east central Oklahoma as well as northwest Arkansas
into the overnight hours east and southeast of a nearly stalled
frontal boundary over the region. Both surface and elevated based
instability will aid in increasing severe potentials through late
evening over these same locations. Large hail and damaging winds
are the primary severe threats, along with a limited tornado
potential. Severe potentials should begin to weaken after midnight
tonight as instability decreases. North of the frontal boundary,
across northeast Oklahoma, chances for elevated showers and storms
remains possible through tonight.

Also, with the thunderstorm activity will be a heavy rain threat,
which could create localized areas of flood concerns through
tonight. Additional rainfall of a half inch to locally in excess
of two inches are forecast through tonight across southeast and
east central Oklahoma as well as northwest Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy
		 Rain Potential.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy
		  Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and storms will linger into the day Thursday before
diminishing. Another round of thunderstorms is expected late
Thursday night and into Friday morning, focused across parts of
eastern Oklahoma. Friday afternoon into Friday night will feature
the highest threat for severe weather, with potential for large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Locally heavy rain will
be possible again on Friday into Friday night as well. Continue
to monitor forecasts through this week and have a severe weather
plan ready to go.

A low severe weather threat may extend into Saturday morning
across southeast Oklahoma before a cold front fully moves south
of the area. Low to medium thunderstorm chances and continued warm
conditions will continue Sunday into Monday, with better storm
chances returning by next Tuesday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1153 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

ARZ002-011-041830-
Carroll AR-Madison AR-
1153 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MADISON AND
SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CST...

At 1153 AM CST, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Withrow Springs State Park, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Rockhouse...                      Withrow Springs State Park...
Hindsville...                     Huntsville...
Carrollton...                     Dryfork...
Rudd...                           Cabanal...
Metalton...                       Connor...
Marble...                         Forum...
Alabam...                         Osage...
Urbanette...                      Delmar...
Berryville...                     Green Forest...
Rule...                           Clifty...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 9333 3612 9348 3610 9348 3604 9380
      3621 9390 3649 9348 3625 9330 3613 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 243DEG 34KT 3616 9375

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Mejia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1259 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

ARZ002-041915-
Carroll AR-
1259 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY
THROUGH 115 PM CST...

At 1259 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
west of Red Bank, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Delmar...                         Connor...
Carrollton...                     Osage...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 9339 3626 9345 3631 9330 3612 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 249DEG 43KT 3620 9333

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

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