Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

 - Hot and humid weather continues today, with afternoon heat
   index values near or above 100 degrees.

 - Shower and storm chances increase this afternoon and evening
   across NE OK and NW AR. Additional storms possible late tonight
   and Tuesday morning.

 - Cooler and less humid weather is expected Wednesday, but
   unsettled weather returns late week into next weekend with
   daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Another hot and humid day is occurring across eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas today as upper level ridging strengthens
overhead. Temperatures will probably end up a tad higher than
yesterday, with much of the area warming into the mid 90s. This
will combine with a humid airmass to create heat indices in the
lower to mid 100s. This is especially true along and just south of
a southward moving outflow boundary in NE OK today. Please make
sure to drink plenty of fluid and take breaks when outdoors today.

CAMs continue to suggest isolated to scattered convection will be
possible along the aforementioned boundary in NE OK and NW AR
this afternoon/evening. Considering heights will be steadily
rising through the day, it is unclear just how many showers/storms
will develop, but 20-40 percent PoPs are warranted through 03z.
The highest potential will occur over NW AR zones and east of the
FA. Despite weak shear values, the environment will still support
strong to marginally severe storms, with a threat for damaging
wind gusts and large hail. Expect any of this activity will
dissipate by late evening. Separately, a complex of showers and
thunderstorms is forecast to develop in Kansas this evening and
move east and south towards the FA during the overnight hours.
Currently expect this activity to be weakening with southward
extent, but several CAMs suggest there is at least a low chance
for showers and storms to extend into NE OK. Strong to damaging
wind gusts will be possible with any storms that enter the area
overnight, especially initially.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Precipitation may be ongoing Tuesday morning across portions of
the area, gradually moving south. Depending on the exact evolution
tonight and Tuesday morning, a remnant outflow boundary may
become a focus for redevelopment across SE OK during the
afternoon. Ridging overhead continues to raise questions
pertaining to coverage and intensity, but slight chance to chance
PoPs will be maintained for now.

Going into mid-week, a large area of high pressure develops
across E CONUS. It appears this will have just enough influence on
our area to keep us dry on Wednesday and cool temperatures down
to near seasonal averages. Low level flow returns out of the south
on Thursday, providing moisture advection to area. With weak west
to southwest flow aloft, this leads to another period of daily
storm chances Thursday through the weekend. As has been the case,
severe weather should remain limited/isolated overall, though
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will likely be a
concern as PWATs climb back to near or above the 90th percentile.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites through most of the
TAF period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may form along an
outflow boundary later this afternoon between I-44 and I-40.
Although storms may fizzle out before reaching KFSM as they move
southward with time, went ahead and added a PROB30 group to show a
low probability of storms impacting the terminal from 00z through
03z. Light fog will be possible across portions of far NW AR
before sunrise Tuesday. Added a TEMPO group for this possibility
at KFYV. Otherwise, another round of showers and storms is
expected to move into NE OK from the northwest around sunrise,
pushing southeast into SE OK and western AR late in the morning or
early in the afternoon. Included PROB30 groups at KBVO, KTUL,
KRVS, KMLC, and KFSM to show the low probability of this activity
impacting these terminals. Timing and coverage may need be
adjusted as new guidance comes in. Winds stay generally light
through the period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  68  83 /  20  20   0   0
FSM   73  90  65  85 /  30  10   0   0
MLC   73  92  68  87 /  10  20   0   0
BVO   70  87  66  83 /  20  20   0   0
FYV   70  87  61  83 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   67  82  58  78 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   72  89  67  84 /  20  30  10   0
MIO   70  86  63  82 /   0  10   0   0
F10   71  89  67  84 /  20  20   0   0
HHW   73  93  68  84 /  10  30  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
447 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-022200-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
447 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northwest and West-central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending after sunset this evening.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West-central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending by sunset.

DISCUSSION...

A boundary dropping south over northwest and west-central Arkansas
may force a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Damaging
winds is the main threat, but large hail is possible. An isolated
storm could develop over northeast Oklahoma, and if it does it
could become severe. However, chances are low. The activity is
expected to die off with the loss of daytime heating this evening.

It is a hot and humid afternoon with heat index values between
100 and 105 degrees across portions of eastern Oklahoma and the
lower Arkansas River Valley of west- central Arkansas. Conditions
will improve after sunset this evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

The latest short-term models suggest that a decaying thunderstorm
cluster or complex will be moving into northeast Oklahoma late
tonight or early Tuesday morning. Outflow from these storms could
top 40 mph but should stay sub-severe as it moves in from the
northwest during the morning hours Tuesday. Redevelopment of
storms on the outflow boundary is expected Tuesday afternoon
across west-central Arkansas and especially southeast Oklahoma.
These storms will be capable of producing mostly sub-severe gusty
winds as they move south and out of the region by late afternoon.
Storm chances quickly return late week into the weekend from an
area of low pressure moving into the Plains. A heavy rain threat
as well as a limited severe risk exists into the weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
554 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

OKZ060-012330-
Tulsa OK-
554 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL TULSA COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 554 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Tulsa, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Bixby...                          Jenks...
Catoosa...                        Tulsa International Airport...
Jenks Riverside Airport...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 219 and 232.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 9581 3616 9578 3599 9576 3601 9603
      3606 9603 3616 9602 3617 9600 3621 9600
      3623 9582
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 337DEG 7KT 3613 9592

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH