Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

 - Showers and storms through tonight primarily north of I-40.
   Isolated severe storms across NE OK through evening.

 - Rain chances and wide ranging temperatures continue Monday.
   Drier and warmer on Tuesday.

 - An unsettled weather pattern continues mid to late week with multiple
   periods of showers and thunderstorms. There is the potential
   for both severe weather and heavy rainfall hazards in the mid
   to late week period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1230 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Expanding area of showers and storms currently spreading into NE
OK will continue eastward through the afternoon and evening. A
continued increase in coverage is expected with primarily north of
Interstate 40 which generally aligns along and north of the
stalled frontal zone. Isolated strong to severe storms will
possible through the evening with large hail the primary concern
as most storms will be in the more elevated post frontal airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 123- PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible Monday as
the warm front begins to lift northward. Wide ranging temps again
likely across the front zone. The warm sector expands area wide on
Tuesday with unseasonably warm temperatures and breezy south winds
expected. This pattern will allow a more meaningful increase in
low level moisture area wide ahead of the next shortwave trough
timed to influence the region Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Expectation is numerous to widespread showers and storms develop
along and ahead of the associated cold front with at least an
isolated severe weather risk especially south and east through the
day Wednesday. A more widespread footprint of beneficial rainfall
is likely.

The warm sector quickly resets and expands northward on Thursday
ahead of the next wave which will increase shower and storm
chances Thursday night through Friday night. A similar widespread
swath of precip is expected along and ahead of the associated
frontal passage with potential severe and locally heavy rainfall
concerns. The pattern is likely to remain unsettled into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Broken/overcast mid and high clouds at the start of the period
remain common into this evening before MVFR/IFR ceilings spread
into the CWA tonight through Monday morning. The greater potential
for IFR conditions are across northeast Oklahoma into far
northwest Arkansas. At the same time, scattered rain showers along
with thunderstorm chances are forecast this afternoon into the
overnight hours for the CWA as a frontal boundary sags through the
region. Within the stronger storm potential, MVFR conditions and
variable winds are possible. Majority of the precip looks to move
off to the east Monday morning and have added Prob30/Tempo groups
for timing of greater potential. Winds through the period start
out south to easterly and become north to east behind the frontal
boundary tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  63  54  79 /  70  20  10  20
FSM   52  73  55  81 /  40  20   0  10
MLC   50  73  58  79 /  40  20  10  10
BVO   38  55  47  79 /  70  20  20  20
FYV   49  70  54  77 /  60  30  10  10
BYV   45  64  53  78 /  80  30  20  20
MKO   48  67  56  79 /  60  20  10  10
MIO   45  61  53  78 /  80  30  20  20
F10   48  66  57  80 /  60  20  10  10
HHW   56  73  57  79 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
448 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021100-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
448 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage this afternoon and evening in the vicinity and north of a
frontal boundary that will be draped across the area. Locally
heavy rainfall may occur with a few storms this evening and
overnight. A limited fire weather danger will exist this
afternoon, especially south of the frontal boundary where
unseasonably warm temperatures are once again expected and rain
coverage will be lower.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Near daily shower and thunderstorm chances will exist through the
coming week. The best chances for locally heavy rainfall and
possibly a few strong to severe storms will be Wednesday and again
Friday into early Saturday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.