Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
626 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

 - Severe storms are possible this afternoon through early tonight,
however confidence remains low in overall storm coverage.

 - Thunderstorm and severe weather chances linger into Monday and
Tuesday across eastern areas.

 - After a break from active weather on Wednesday, rain and low
thunderstorm chances return late week. Severe potential appears low
at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A mid level trough gradually ejects from the Rockies today, while a
warm front lifts north and moisture advection continues at the
surface east of a dryline and sfc low in Western/Central OK. The
eastern end of the warm front will likely struggle with its
northward advance, and the front is expected to end up draped across
our area this afternoon and evening, oriented NW to SE. This
maintains widespread 60+ dewpoints, with pockets of 70+ possible
this evening, and results in an increasingly unstable airmass across
the warm sector. With steep lapse rates and increasing wind shear,
the environment will certainly be supportive of severe weather and
any storm that develops and takes advantage will likely become
severe. All severe hazards will be possible this afternoon into
tonight, including large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts,
and tornadoes (particularly if sfc-based storms are present in the
evening).

With that said, storm coverage remains uncertain, and overall storm
chances remain fairly low... only between 20 and 40 percent this
afternoon through tonight. Warm advection storms will be possible
north of the front with additional isolated storms possible across
the remainder of the area as inhibition decreases, with preference
along the dryline/triple point. The environment will continue to
support severe weather into the overnight period, however,
thunderstorm and severe chances should generally trend downward by
late overnight/early morning. Overall, it remains to be seen how
many storms will develop to take advantage of the environment today,
but it is a day to remain weather aware and appreciate the potential.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Additional thunderstorm development will be possible along and ahead
of an advancing dryline/frontal boundary Monday afternoon/early
evening, some of which may be severe. Based on the latest timing
expectations, this places far E OK and NW AR in the greater risk for
severe weather. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary
concerns Monday. The front is expected to stall in the vicinity of
western Arkansas and SE OK Monday night into Tuesday as another
shortwave moves across the region. This results in yet another day
of severe weather potential, particularly along and south of I-40 in
E OK and into W-Central and NW AR during the afternoon and evening.

The cold front will eventually move south of the local area Tuesday
night, with high pressure providing a break from the active weather
pattern on Wednesday. Precip chances increase late week as another
shortwave passes overhead and an upper low moves east out of the
Desert SW. Instability during this period continues to look fairly
weak, so thunder chances remain much lower through the end of the
week with no severe weather expected. Quiet weather is possible
Sunday with another period of high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail into the evening. The main concern in
the near term will be scattered storm potential across NE OK over
the next several hours. Used PROB30s to cover potential. Another
round of storms is expected later tonight from the west, mainly
across NE OK. Storm chances greatest at KBVO, a bit lower at
KTUL/KRVS. Kept TEMPO mention at KBVO and PROB30 mentions at
KTUL/KRVS for the overnight storms. Storm chances/coverage too
uncertain to mention storms at the SE OK and NW AR TAF sites at
this time. MVFR cigs are expected to overspread the region from
the south late tonight and will persist into Monday morning. Skies
will clear from west to east with a front during the day. Storm
chances Monday afternoon should be east of the TAF sites.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  89  55  74 /  40  10  10  40
FSM   68  87  64  82 /  30  30  30  70
MLC   71  89  63  80 /  20  20  20  60
BVO   65  86  49  72 /  40  10   0  20
FYV   66  84  57  78 /  40  40  30  80
BYV   66  83  55  79 /  30  40  30  80
MKO   69  87  58  76 /  30  20  10  60
MIO   67  84  51  72 /  40  20  10  50
F10   69  87  57  76 /  20  10  10  50
HHW   69  87  66  80 /  20  20  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
528 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-272230-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
528 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...HIGHER END SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated to near Significant.
	AREA...Mainly Northeast Oklahoma. Some risk Northwest Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Late this afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated to near Significant.
	AREA...Mainly Northeast Oklahoma. Some risk Northwest Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Late this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase by late this
afternoon across northeast Oklahoma. Multiple rounds of storms
are expected across northeast Oklahoma from late this afternoon
into the overnight hours. Storm coverage is more uncertain across
northwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. Any storms that develop
will have the potential to produce all severe hazards, including
very large hail, locally damaging wind and tornadoes. Storms
during the overnight hours, especially across northeast Oklahoma,
will have higher-end tornado potential. The storm threat should
come to an end by around 5 AM.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe storm potential will increase Monday afternoon
along and ahead of a cold front. This potential will be greatest
east of Interstate 49 in northwest Arkansas, with lower potential
across extreme southeast Oklahoma. Large hail and locally damaging
winds will be the main threats. Another round of storms and some
potential for severe weather Tuesday afternoon, south of the front
across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

A lull in storm chances is forecast Wednesday, however storm
chances increase again for the latter part of the week with the
approach of another storm system. At this time, the severe weather
potential is expected to be low.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
658 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

OKZ154-270030-
Western Osage OK-
658 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 658 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Kaw
City, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Burbank...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Pearsonia...                      Eastern Kaw Lake...
Webb City...                      Apperson...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 9643 3675 9644 3667 9685 3675 9689
      3675 9687 3674 9683 3676 9682 3677 9682
      3677 9679 3678 9679 3678 9675 3694 9675
      3700 9664 3700 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 243DEG 22KT 3679 9682

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH