Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
632 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

 - Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
   Higher-end severe weather threats are possible, particularly in
   SE OK.

 - Severe storms may also occur Sunday but confidence is lower.

 - Thunderstorm chances linger into Monday and Tuesday across
   eastern areas, but the severe weather potential appears to be
   lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

West-southwest flow aloft persists across the Southern Plains
today and a mid-level shortwave will pass through the region this
afternoon. At the surface, south to southeast winds will provide
continued moisture advection east of a strengthening sfc low
located in NW Texas. This will maintain 60+ dewpoints across
eastern Oklahoma today. A remnant outflow boundary/warm front will
continue to move northward out of Texas this afternoon, providing
greater moisture concentration and low level convergence across
southeast Oklahoma. As sfc temperatures warm this afternoon,
strong instability should develop across eastern Oklahoma,
especially across the southeast.

Low clouds have so far been slow to erode, but isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development is still expected by mid to
late afternoon, especially in the vicinity of the warm front
across central to southeast Oklahoma. A more subtle boundary
further north into NE OK may also prove to be a focus for
potential development. Sfc winds will generally remain out of the
south to southeast today and strongly veer with height, producing
enlarged clockwise-curved hodographs. With steep lapse rates and
strong deep layer shear present, storms are likely to intensify
and become supercellular, especially across SE OK. All severe
hazards will be possible, including very large to giant
hailstones in excess of 2-4 inches, tornadoes (potentially
strong), and damaging wind gusts. Tornado potential is likely to
be maximized along the warm front this evening as the LLJ
strengthens. Given elongated hodographs in the upper levels, storm
splits can be expected, with right-mover motion oriented to the
southeast and left-movers trending northeast.

The greatest severe potential should end by late evening or early
overnight tonight, though some chance of severe weather will
linger into the overnight hours as additional elevated
thunderstorms remain possible into the early morning hours Sunday.
The threat for significant/higher-end severe weather is mainly
before midnight. Additionally, heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding will be possible this evening, especially across
southeast Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Sundays forecast will be largely influenced by what happens today
and tonight, but at least some potential for severe weather will
persist. Showers and storms may be ongoing Sunday morning, with a
gradual trend towards decreasing precip through the morning into
the afternoon. Latest guidance indicates a later arrival of the
shortwave and greater convective inhibition across the warm
sector, casting doubt on afternoon/ evening development across the
FA. Still, if a storm can develop and intensify, the environment
will support severe weather including large hail, damaging winds,
and tornadoes. It appears the greatest potential for severe wx in
our CWA may stem from any supercells which develop west of the
area along the dryline, then move east into the FA. However, this
would probably be a fairly brief window during the late afternoon/
evening hours Sunday.

As the mid-upper level system navigates eastward Sunday night
into Monday, a cold front will push east as well. Thunderstorm
development will be possible along the front Monday afternoon,
potentially impacting parts of far E OK/NW AR before exiting the
region. Severe weather will be possible with this activity, but
less so then over the weekend. A secondary front will push south
into the region Monday evening and overnight, but may tend to hang
up across SE OK Tuesday as a mid-level wave moves across the
Southern Plains. Thunderstorms are again expected to develop along
the front during the afternoon, with severe weather possible
across SE OK and W-Central AR.

A break in the active pattern is expected on Wednesday as the
front finally clears the area with high pressure filling into the
region. Rain chances return late Thursday and Friday as an upper
low moves east from the desert SW. At this time, the greatest
instability is expected to reside across SE OK or south of the FA
altogether, limiting thunderstorm potential. High pressure follows
with a period of quieter weather possible next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue through this
evening, currently two corridors seem favored...over from north
of BVO into northwest AR and another near and south of I-40.
Areas of MVFR ceilings will persist especially within storms. Any
sites directly impacted by storms will see a period of IFR
conditions with potentially gusty winds. For the most part
convection will move out of the forecast areas by 06z, likely
followed by a period of more widespread MVFR ceilings into Sunday
morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday
morning with conditions trending toward more VFR by Sunday
afternoon with winds becoming more gusty out of the south. At this
time the potential for any storms 18 00z is too low to mention.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  79  69  88 /  70  30  30  10
FSM   62  82  69  88 /  80  30  40  30
MLC   63  83  71  88 /  90  20  20  10
BVO   57  78  64  87 /  60  30  30   0
FYV   59  79  65  84 /  70  40  50  40
BYV   59  77  66  84 /  70  40  60  50
MKO   61  80  69  87 /  80  30  30  10
MIO   59  78  67  84 /  70  40  50  20
F10   60  82  69  87 /  80  30  20  10
HHW   63  82  68  87 /  90  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
555 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-262300-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
555 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

 AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southwest of a Fort Smith to Bristow
line.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Severe weather probabilities will continue to increase through the evening
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas in response to a warm
front and any secondary boundaries lifting northward through the
region. Large to very large hail continues to be the most likely
hazard, though tornadoes, potentially strong, and locally damaging
winds will also be a concern into the overnight hours. The favored
area for significant severe weather, including very large hail
and tornadoes will be generally to the southwest of a line from
Bristow to Fort Smith. Severe potential is forecast to begin
weakening late tonight, while storm chances remain into early
Sunday morning. In addition to the severe risk, a heavy rain
threat which could lead to increased flood concerns exists through
tonight over the region. Those with outdoor plans should closely
monitor weather conditions, and have multiple ways of receiving
warnings.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Thunderstorm and High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances continue Sunday into Monday for eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas ahead of an approaching cold
front. The severe threat is more conditional Sunday, but if storms
do develop, they would likely have significant severe weather
potential, including a threat for tornadoes. The cold front will
be slow to clear the area early next week, with storm chances
lingering across parts of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas
Monday and Tuesday. Storm chances will increase again toward the
latter part of the week with the approach of another storm system.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
444 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

OKZ075-176-276-252215-
Latimer OK-Northern Le Flore OK-Central Le Flore OK-
444 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LATIMER AND CENTRAL
LE FLORE COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

At 443 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
northwest of Fanshawe, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Poteau...                         Spiro...
Panama...                         Wister...
Red Oak...                        Bokoshe...
Fanshawe...                       Shady Point...
Milton...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 9508 3506 9511 3506 9493 3514 9493
      3524 9464 3498 9453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 250DEG 25KT 3501 9495

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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