Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
625 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

 - Severe storm chances continue through late evening Wednesday.

 - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues through Friday.

 - Additional thunderstorm chances, some potentially severe, are
   expected Friday into early Saturday with a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Early afternoon Wednesday, a moisture plume with precipitable
water values locally in excess of 1.5 inches remained common
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas east of a surface
boundary positioned from west Texas through western Oklahoma and
across central Kansas. Within this plume, both surface and
elevated instability had become re-established across the region
with the instability maximized along the boundary and eastward
over central and northeast Oklahoma. Scattered convection was
ongoing over southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas within a
southern portion of a 30-35KT low level jet holding over the CWA.
A limited severe potential exists with this activity, though deep
layer shear vectors were not quite as strong as they are back to
the west. Small hail and gusty winds are probable with the
stronger storms. This activity should move out of northwest
Arkansas through the early afternoon hours.

Additional storm development is expected over the CWA through the
afternoon hours both initiating near the surface boundary and also
out ahead of it. Deep layer shear is progged to increase from west
to east as the boundary pushes eastward toward the CWA from a
shortwave moving east northeast across the Plains. The combination
of increasing shear, steep mid level lapse rates, the amount of
instability over the CWA and dewpoints running in the mid/upper
60s will quickly aid in the increase of severe probabilities. At
the onset, with more discrete storm development, the potential
for all modes of severe weather exist this afternoon. With shear
values more parallel to the boundary, storm development becoming
broken lines and clusters could transition severe probs to more of
a damaging wind threat this evening into tonight. Also, a heavy
rain threat exists with the potential for localized flood concerns
through tonight.

At the same time, a tornado threat remains across the CWA with the
greater potential looking to become QLCS along the leading edge
of the broken line segments this evening into the early overnight
hours. This is in response, to 0-1km storm relative helicity
values of 200-300 m2/s2 and low level shear values becoming more
oriented to the south southeast forecast this evening.

Severe potentials begin to weaken after 06z with much of the
precip exiting southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early
Thursday morning. The boundary itself is expected to remain just
west of the CWA tonight, which will keep temperatures in the upper
50s to mid 60s for lows Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

During the day Thursday, before the mid/upper level trof axis
departs to the east, a slight chance of showers and storms remains
for parts of far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Any
lingering precip development Thursday afternoon could tap into
shear/instability holding east of the surface boundary, and carry
a limited severe potential. To the west of any precip development,
continued southerly low level flow and more scattered cloud cover
will help afternoon temperatures climb into the 80s, while upper
70s/near 80 deg are forecast for northwest Arkansas.

Thursday night into Friday, another shortwave is progged to move
through the Rocky Mountains and into the Plains. This will push
the cold front back toward the CWA during the day Friday, and then
through the CWA Friday night/early Saturday morning. Moisture and
instability continues to be common over the region ahead of the
front and will allow for another round of storm development,
especially Friday afternoon into Saturday morning with the front.
Again, severe potentials exist along and ahead of the front with
the greater potential over northeast Oklahoma as the front enters
this area late afternoon through evening hours.

Showers and thunderstorms taper off and exit during the morning
hours as the front clears the CWA to the southeast. In the wake of
the departing front and while the mid/upper level trof axis moves
over the region, northerly flow transporting a cooler and drier
airmass into the region is forecast. High temperatures in the 60s
are forecast Saturday, with lows Saturday night falling into the
upper 30s and 40s as cloud cover tries to clear. Temperatures
more closer to seasonal average are forecast Sunday into early
next week while a ridge of high pressure builds over the Southern
Plains. There are some indications of a wave moving over top the
ridge during the middle part of next week which could return the
potential for showers/storms. Uncertainty exists this far out and
for now will carry a slight chance of precip.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible for all terminals the
next few hours, with the densest coverage shifting from northeast
OK towards northwest AR and southeast OK around 01-02Z. The
impacts will include lightning, heavy rain, hail, gusty winds,
lowered visibility to 1-2 SM, and brief ceilings of 2-3 kft.
Storms will wind down overnight. A few additional storms could
develop Thursday but were not included in the TAFs at this time
due to low confidence in coverage and location. Gusty southerly
winds will weaken a bit overnight but remain southerly, returning
again during the day Thursday. Low ceilings will redevelop for all
areas Thursday morning, most likely breaking up in the late
morning or early afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  85  67  83 /  80  10  10  50
FSM   64  79  67  86 /  90  20  10  10
MLC   65  84  67  82 /  80  10  10  10
BVO   57  85  64  83 /  60  10   0  60
FYV   61  78  64  84 /  90  20  10  20
BYV   61  77  64  83 /  90  20  10  20
MKO   62  81  66  83 /  80  10  10  20
MIO   61  79  65  80 /  80  10   0  60
F10   62  84  67  83 /  80  10  10  20
HHW   64  83  65  82 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
539 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-162245-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
539 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast and East Central Oklahoma as well as Western
		    Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Along and North of Interstate 40.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will continue to develop across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening with the greater potential along
and north of Interstate 40. Storm development will continue to be
more scattered for the next hour or two, and then develop into
a complex later this evening before weakening late overnight.
The initial storms through mid evening will be capable of large
to very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Then,
storms will transition to a damaging wind and quick spin-up
tornado threat for the late evening and early overnight hours. In
addition to severe potentials, a heavy rain threat will exist,
with minor flash flooding possible under any storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Some early morning thunderstorms may linger over western Arkansas
Thursday morning before moving east. Isolated afternoon storms
could develop over portions of far eastern Oklahoma into western
Arkansas Thursday afternoon. If a storm develops, it would have
potential to become severe.

More thunderstorms are expected to develop across northern
Oklahoma Friday afternoon along a dryline, ahead of an upper
storm system and associated surface low pressure and cold front.
These storms will have a decent chance of becoming severe in an
unstable and strongly sheared environment, and would be capable of
producing higher-end severe weather. This includes very large
hail, locally damaging wind and tornadoes. Eventually, the cold
front will overtake the dryline and will force a band of storms
along it, with a damaging wind threat Friday night.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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