Alert archive / Oklahoma / River Flood Warnings in 2026

River Flood Warning 3, NWS Tulsa, OK

April 17, 2026Ottawa County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this river flood warning at Apr 17, 2026, 8:31 AM CDT for Ottawa County, Oklahoma. It took effect at Apr 18, 2026, 1:40 PM CDT. It was in force for 60 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 17, 2026, 8:31 AM CDT (13:31 UTC)
In effect from: Apr 18, 2026, 1:40 PM CDT
Expired: Apr 21, 2026, 1:33 AM CDT
In force: 60 hr
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

County Ottawa County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Neosho River near Commerce (COMO2).

Action stage: 14 ft
Minor stage: 15 ft
Moderate stage: 18 ft
Major stage: 24 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07185000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

632 
WGUS44 KTSA 171331
FLWTSA

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
831 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...The National Weather Service in Tulsa OK has issued a Flood 
Warning for the following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County.

&&

OKC115-180145-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.W.0003.260418T2115Z-260421T0835Z/
/COMO2.1.ER.260418T2115Z.260419T1800Z.260421T0234Z.NO/
831 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY TUESDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Neosho River near Commerce.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon to early Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs. 
  Riverview Park experiences minor flooding.
  At 18.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs with Riverview 
  Park experiencing minor to moderate flooding. Low lying places 
  around Miami may be cut off from easy access.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 AM CDT Friday the stage was 11.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    Saturday afternoon to a crest of 17.6 feet early Sunday
    afternoon. It is forecast to fall below flood stage late
    Monday evening. This river forecast is currently based on
    future rainfall.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510


$$

13 follow-up statements

001 
WGUS84 KTSA 171857
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
157 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County.

&&

OKC115-180700-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0003.260418T2115Z-260421T0834Z/
/COMO2.1.ER.260418T2115Z.260419T1800Z.260421T0234Z.NO/
157 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY 
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Neosho River near Commerce.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon to early Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs. 
  Riverview Park experiences minor flooding.
  At 18.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs with Riverview 
  Park experiencing minor to moderate flooding. Low lying places 
  around Miami may be cut off from easy access.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:30 PM CDT Friday the stage was 9.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    Saturday afternoon to a crest of 17.6 feet early Sunday
    afternoon. It is forecast to fall below flood stage late
    Monday evening. This river forecast is currently based on
    future rainfall.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510


$$

465 
WGUS84 KTSA 180125
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
825 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County.

&&

OKC115-181330-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0003.260419T0618Z-260421T0834Z/
/COMO2.1.ER.260419T0618Z.260420T0000Z.260421T0234Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO EARLY 
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Neosho River near Commerce.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night to early Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs with 
  Riverview Park experiencing minor to moderate flooding. Low lying 
  places around Miami may be cut off from easy access.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM CDT Friday the stage was 7.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early Sunday morning to a crest of 17.6 feet Sunday evening.
    It will then fall below flood stage late Monday evening.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510


$$

05

342 
WGUS84 KTSA 180703
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
203 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County.

&&

OKC115-181915-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0003.260419T0312Z-260421T0834Z/
/COMO2.1.ER.260419T0312Z.260420T0000Z.260421T0234Z.NO/
203 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO EARLY TUESDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Neosho River near Commerce.

* WHEN...From this evening to early Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs with 
  Riverview Park experiencing minor to moderate flooding. Low lying 
  places around Miami may be cut off from easy access.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:30 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 9.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late this evening to a crest of 17.6 feet tomorrow evening.
    It will then fall below flood stage late Monday evening.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510


$$

616 
WGUS44 KTSA 181330
FLWTSA

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
830 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County.

&&

OKC115-190130-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0003.260418T1840Z-260421T2241Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.260418T1840Z.260420T0600Z.260421T1641Z.NO/
830 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Neosho River near Commerce.

* WHEN...From this afternoon to Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs with 
  Riverview Park experiencing minor to moderate flooding. Low lying 
  places around Miami may be cut off from easy access.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 13.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this afternoon to a crest of 18.2 feet early Monday morning.
    It will then fall below flood stage late Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510


$$

Mejia

833 
WGUS84 KTSA 181858
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
158 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County.

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Spring River near Quapaw affecting Ottawa County.

&&

OKC115-182000-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260418T1858Z/
/QUAO2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
158 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Spring River near Quapaw.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 18.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river crested this morning at 19.36 feet and
    is now falling. The river is no longer expected to reach
    flood stage.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3695 9469 3682 9469 3682 9481 3695 9481


$$

OKC115-190700-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260421T1926Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.260418T1908Z.260420T0600Z.260421T1326Z.NO/
158 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Neosho River near Commerce.

* WHEN...Until early Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs with 
  Riverview Park experiencing minor to moderate flooding. Low lying 
  places around Miami may be cut off from easy access.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:30 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 14.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this afternoon to a crest of 18.4 feet early Monday morning.
    It will then fall below flood stage Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510


$$

Lacy

699 
WGUS84 KTSA 190112
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
812 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County.

&&

OKC115-191315-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260421T1926Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.260418T1905Z.260420T0600Z.260421T1326Z.NO/
812 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Neosho River near Commerce.

* WHEN...Until early Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs with 
  Riverview Park experiencing minor to moderate flooding. Low lying 
  places around Miami may be cut off from easy access.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 16.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.4
    feet early Monday morning. It will then fall below flood
    stage Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510


$$

MAB

634 
WGUS84 KTSA 191340
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
840 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County.

&&

OKC115-200145-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260421T1810Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.260418T1905Z.260420T0600Z.260421T1210Z.NO/
840 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Neosho River near Commerce.

* WHEN...Until early Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs with 
  Riverview Park experiencing minor to moderate flooding. Low lying 
  places around Miami may be cut off from easy access.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 17.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.0
    feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below
    flood stage Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510


$$

Lacy

959 
WGUS84 KTSA 191908
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
208 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County.

&&

OKC115-200715-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260421T1743Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.260418T1905Z.260420T0600Z.260421T1143Z.NO/
208 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Neosho River near Commerce.

* WHEN...Until early Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs with 
  Riverview Park experiencing minor to moderate flooding. Low lying 
  places around Miami may be cut off from easy access.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:30 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 17.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.0
    feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below
    flood stage Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510


$$

Lacy

165 
WGUS84 KTSA 200125
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
825 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County.

&&

OKC115-201330-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260421T1246Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.260418T1905Z.260420T1200Z.260421T0646Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Neosho River near Commerce.

* WHEN...Until Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs with 
  Riverview Park experiencing minor to moderate flooding. Low lying 
  places around Miami may be cut off from easy access.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 17.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.0
    feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    early Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510


$$

MAB

326 
WGUS84 KTSA 201304
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
804 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County.

&&

OKC115-210115-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260421T1546Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.260418T1905Z.260420T1200Z.260421T0946Z.NO/
804 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Neosho River near Commerce.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs with 
  Riverview Park experiencing minor to moderate flooding. Low lying 
  places around Miami may be cut off from easy access.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 AM CDT Monday the stage was 17.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is cresting and will remain near 18.0
    feet until early afternoon before beginning to fall. It will
    then fall below flood stage late tonight.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510


$$

191 
WGUS84 KTSA 202031
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
331 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County.

&&

OKC115-210845-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260421T1430Z/
/COMO2.1.ER.260418T1905Z.260420T1430Z.260421T0830Z.NO/
331 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Neosho River near Commerce.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs with 
  Riverview Park experiencing minor to moderate flooding. Low lying 
  places around Miami may be cut off from easy access.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 17.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river has crested and is beginning to fall.
    The river is expected to fall below flood stage late tonight.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510


$$

660 
WGUS84 KTSA 210047
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
747 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County.

&&

OKC115-211300-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260421T1251Z/
/COMO2.1.ER.260418T1905Z.260420T1430Z.260421T0651Z.NO/
747 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Neosho River near Commerce.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs. 
  Riverview Park experiences minor flooding.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 16.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    just after midnight tonight and continue falling and remain
    below flood stage.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510


$$

MAB

199 
WGUS84 KTSA 210633
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
133 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County.

OKC115-210745-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260421T0633Z/
/COMO2.1.ER.260418T1905Z.260420T1430Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
133 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Neosho River near Commerce.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:30 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 14.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall and remain below
    flood stage.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510


$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Apr 17, 6:31 AM CDT, 2 hours earlier. Its key messages:

Updated at 624 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues through Friday.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are expected late Friday into early Saturday with a cold front.
Cooler and drier weather is anticipated Saturday into early next week.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 17, 6:31 AM CDT, 2 hours before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
631 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

 - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues through Friday.

 - Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are
   expected late Friday into early Saturday with a cold front.

 - Cooler and drier weather is anticipated Saturday into early
   next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Friday will be another windy, warm, and humid day across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon Friday across parts
of northeast Oklahoma, with an all hazards severe threat with any
activity that does develop during the daylight hours. Afternoon
high temperatures Friday will range from the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A strong cold front will enter northeast Oklahoma early Friday
evening and will move rapidly southeast across the entire forecast
area during the evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected to accompany the front, with
mainly a damaging wind threat. The greatest severe threat will be
across the northern part of the forecast area, with a gradual
weakening trend in storm intensity expected during the late
evening and overnight hours.

Much cooler and drier air will filter into the area following the
passage of the front, with highs Saturday remaining in the 60s.
Some of the colder valleys will likely see temperatures fall to
near or just slightly above freezing Saturday night. South winds
return Sunday, with temperatures warming back to near the
seasonal averages for Sunday into the first part of next week.

Shower and thunderstorm chances look to arrive late next week as
the next storm system approaches the area from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the day, with expanding
lower cloud deck this morning resulting in widespread ceilings a
little above VFR threshold. Periodic MVFR ceilings still possible
this morning with highest probability being across NW AR. South
winds will increase this morning with gusts 20-30 knots common
through afternoon. Data continues to support at least limited
potential for initial discrete thunderstorm development across NE
OK after about 21z, to be handled with PROB30 as coverage remains
uncertain. Higher confidence scenario remains for a line of
intense convection moving into NE OK 02-04Z then pushing into NW
AR/SE OK before 06z while decreasing in intensity. Period of lower
MVFR ceilings and at least brief IFR conditions with passage of
storms, with potential for strong wind gusts >40 knots with storms
at NE OK sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  46  63  41 /  30  90   0   0
FSM   85  53  66  40 /  10  80  30   0
MLC   82  51  64  38 /  10  90  20   0
BVO   82  44  62  34 /  40  90   0   0
FYV   82  47  61  35 /  10  90  30   0
BYV   82  47  60  38 /  10  90  30   0
MKO   83  47  63  38 /  20  90  20   0
MIO   81  45  60  36 /  30  90  10   0
F10   82  47  63  38 /  20  90  10   0
HHW   82  52  65  41 /   0  70  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 17, 4:28 AM CDT, 4 hours 3 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
428 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-180930-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
428 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXPECTED TODAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 5 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Much of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 2 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...North of Interstate 40.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...North of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mid morning.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon from
southern Kansas into north central Oklahoma and spread east and
northeast through the evening. These storms will pose a risk of
significant severe weather with very large hail, locally damaging
winds, and tornadoes all possible. Storms will steadily increase
in coverage through Friday evening across northeast Oklahoma and
eventually align along a quickly advancing cold front. The
predominant severe weather hazard will transition to locally
damaging winds as storms focus along the front. The front is forecast
to move quickly southeastward overnight with a risk of localized
severe weather extending into the early morning hours Saturday.
Locally heavy rainfall and a limited risk of flash flooding will
develop through the evening as storms expand along the cold front.
The heaviest rains are expected to remain north of Interstate 40.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Thunderstorm and High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Breezy winds and cooler temperatures are forecast on Saturday.
A period of dry weather persists through early next week.
Thunderstorm chances return by mid to late next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 17, 3:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pawnee	36 min
Apr 17, 3:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	35 min
Apr 17, 4:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	McIntosh, Muskogee	32 min
Apr 17, 5:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Cherokee, Muskogee	23 min
Apr 17, 6:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	51 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Oklahoma, 2026 Every river flood warning in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.