Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Tulsa, OK

922 
WWUS84 KTSA 180028
RFWTSA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
728 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

OKZ054-059-064-065-180130-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260318T0000Z/
Osage-Pawnee-Creek-Okfuskee-
728 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

Fire weather conditions continue to slowly improve across 
northeast Oklahoma this evening. However, winds will continue to 
periodically gust around 20 mph through much of tonight in more 
exposed areas. Humidity levels remain in the 20 to 30 percent 
range this evening, but will gradually rise to around 50 percent 
in most locations.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
614 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

 - Another hard freeze expected tonight into Tuesday morning.

 - Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Tuesday
   afternoon.

 - A sharp warming trend starts Tuesday and continues through the
   end of the week. Well above average temperatures are expected by
   mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Light winds along with clear skies will lead to another
widespread hard freeze for the entire forecast area tonight. Lows
again will dip into the lower to mid 20s, with some upper teens in
normally colder locations.

Dew points starting the day in the single digits indicative of the
dry airmass in place. Dry return flow sets up Tuesday as the
surface high slides southeast toward the Gulf coast and lee
troughing reverses the gradient. While dew points should rise to
some degree by afternoon, some model solutions struggle with this
and as such, NBM dew points appear somewhat optimistic. With temps
expected to warm into the upper 50s and low 60s, these lower dew
points yield RH values potentially as low as 10-15% in parts of
eastern OK, generally west of Highway 75, Coupled with south winds
gusting 20-25 mph, elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions can be expected. Per coolab with OUN will not issue a
Red Flag warning at this time, however a Fire Danger Statement
will be issued for most of the local forecast area, with emphasis
on US 75 corridor westward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

A strong warming trend will continue through the end of the week
as anomalously strong high pressure ridging aloft over the
southern CONUS shifts more toward the east, with expanding
thermal ridge. Fortunately wind speeds will be reduced during
this time, but the much above normal temperatures and dry
conditions will lead to limited fire weather conditions each
afternoon. By Thursday and Friday, parts of eastern OK will
approach 90 for daytime highs, and likely exceed 90 by the
weekend. Cold front should knock temperatures back to above normal
by Monday as opposed to near record.

Precipitation chances are minimal for the next 7 days, aside from
a low (<20% chance of measurable) probability of a light shower
across extreme NE OK or NW AR Tuesday night near the nose of a
strengthening LLJ as indicated by some high-res model data.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period with
considerable mid level cloudiness. South winds will gust to near
25 knots at times today into tonight. A strong low level jet will
result in LLWS at all sites late this evening and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  45  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  41  73  47 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   61  44  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   63  41  77  44 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   54  40  71  48 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   51  42  69  49 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   60  44  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   55  43  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   63  45  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   60  42  72  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
533 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
533 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early Afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Southerly winds return today with gusts of 20 to 30 mph forecast
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. These winds
combined with warmer temperatures and minimum humidity levels in
the 15 to 25 percent range will elevate fire weather danger this
afternoon. Area of greater concern is along and west of Highway 75
in northeast Oklahoma, where lower humidity and higher wind gusts
will create near critical grassland fire spread rates.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Periodic limited to elevated fire weather danger exists each
afternoon Wednesday into the weekend over the region, with Sunday
having the greater fire weather danger in extended period. At the
same time, high pressure expanding from the Desert Southwest
United States will help temperatures climb well above seasonal
average late week into the weekend, with potential for near to
record temperatures for some locations.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.