Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1225 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

 - Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue into Friday. Near
   daily rain chances will continue through next week with periods
   of heavy rain possible.

 - Temperatures warm back to near normal for much of the next
   week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

An increase in shower and isolated thunderstorm coverage is
expected overnight into Friday morning as an upper level
disturbance moves across the area. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with this activity. Precipitation coverage will decrease
from west to east during the day Friday, with some sunshine
returning and allowing afternoon temperatures to warm into the 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Shower and isolated thunderstorm coverage will increase again late
Friday night and Saturday as another upper level disturbance moves
across the area, with locally heavy rainfall again possible.
Somewhat drier air will move into at least northeast Oklahoma
Sunday and Monday, with mainly dry weather expected in that area
those two days. Upper troughing will remain over the area through
the next week, resulting in daily shower and thunderstorm chances
Tuesday through the end of the week. Temperatures next week look
to remain near the seasonal averages for late May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Ongoing VFR conditions at most locations will transition back to
a mix of MVFR and IFR as showers and a few thunderstorms expand
back across the local area over the next few hours. Occasional
showers will persist through Friday morning, with gradual
improvement in flight conditions by later Friday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  62  78  62 /  60  30  50  40
FSM   80  63  83  64 /  70  10  60  50
MLC   81  63  81  64 /  40  50  60  40
BVO   78  58  78  58 /  50  30  50  40
FYV   77  58  81  59 /  70  10  60  60
BYV   73  59  80  61 /  70  10  60  60
MKO   79  61  80  62 /  60  30  60  40
MIO   76  59  78  60 /  80  10  60  50
F10   80  61  80  62 /  30  40  50  40
HHW   80  63  80  64 /  40  40  70  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
528 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-222230-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
528 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Areawide.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Areawide.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Areawide.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across
eastern Oklahoma for the next few hours, gradually drifting east
into northwest Arkansas this evening. Severe weather is not
expected. However, areas of heavy rain and dangerous lightning are
likely. Localized flash flooding or minor river flooding is
possible. Storm activity may diminish for a few hours overnight
but additional storm activity is expected close to daybreak.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will continue for the next
week. The periods that look more likely for precipitation are
Friday morning, Saturday-Sunday, and Tuesday. Severe weather
remains unlikely through the forecast period. Multiple rounds of
rainfall will gradually increase the flood potential for areas
that see heavier rainfall, but widespread or severe flooding is
not expected. Temperatures will mostly remain near normal.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.