Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Tulsa, OK

302 
WGUS74 KTSA 240307
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1007 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

ARC033-143-240415-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-260524T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Crawford AR-Washington AR-
1007 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CRAWFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AR 
COUNTIES...

At 1007 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated rain showers across the 
warned area, though the heavy rains have ended. Radar estimates 
between 2 and 3.5 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is 
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Winslow...                         Brentwood...
Blackburn...                       Devils Den State Park...
Mount Gayler...                    Wyola...
Arnett...                          Durham...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 9395 3594 9395 3589 9395 3588 9395
      3586 9395 3585 9395 3584 9395 3583 9395
      3583 9396 3578 9396 3567 9423 3580 9429

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

649 
WGUS74 KTSA 240411
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1111 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

ARC033-143-240421-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-260524T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Crawford AR-Washington AR-
1111 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1115 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTH CENTRAL CRAWFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AR COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 9395 3594 9395 3589 9395 3588 9395
      3586 9395 3585 9395 3584 9395 3583 9395
      3583 9396 3578 9396 3567 9423 3580 9429

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
638 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

 - Some patchy dense fog is possible again tonight across
   portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

 - Showers and storms to taper off this evening. After a relative
   lull Sunday and Monday, near daily rain chances are expected
   next week. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat.

 - Temperatures warm back to near normal for much of the next
   week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

An MCV left from the storms last night continues to spin over
northeast OK early this afternoon. A band of rain and embedded
thunder extends from the low to the southeast into west-central
AR. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest the MCV and associated
precip will lift slowly northeast through the afternoon and
evening. The latest mesoanalysis shows some destabilization has
occurred north of the area of rain across southeast KS, far
northeast OK and northwest AR. This is where the greatest coverage
of more spotty showers and storms will be, as indicated on radar
mosaic. Additional development is possible further south through
the afternoon as well as environment becomes at least weakly
unstable. Severe weather is not expected owing to insufficient
deep layer shear. Rain/storm coverage should decrease this evening
with a mostly quiet night expected. The latest guidance clears
skies enough across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas to
allow for fog development toward daybreak Sunday morning.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The latest CAMs and global models forecast a mostly quiet day on
Sunday, aside from maybe an isolated shower or storm in the
terrain of SE OK and NW AR during the afternoon. Monday will be
quiet for most, with increasing PoPs from the southeast Monday
afternoon and night in association with an approaching upper low
from the ArkLaTex. The upper low will lift N/NNW over the region
on Tuesday, yielding higher areawide PoPs that day. Another wave
will lift north into the area from TX on Wednesday, keeping higher
more areawide PoPs going. A trough of low pressure aloft will
remain over the region through the end of the week, trapped
beneath an omega block in the higher latitudes. Expect daily
rain/storm chances to continue.

With weak flow aloft, severe potential will be pretty low.
However, slow-moving storms could drop locally heavy rainfall and
lead to isolated flash flooding.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Scattered to overcast mid and high clouds will continue into this
evening over the CWA as an area of low pressure lifts northeast
out of the region. Scattered rain showers along with a low thunder
potential will also remain common for mainly far eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas into mid evening and then begin to taper
off and exit tonight. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are
capable within the stronger showers and any storm development.
Overnight tonight into Sunday morning, cloud cover is forecast to
scatter out which will aid the development of fog across parts of
the CWA. Will continue with tempo groups for timing of the greater
potential, with the greater chance of LIFR conditions over far
northwest Arkansas. Conditions should improve after sunrise, with
a few passing mid/high clouds Sunday afternoon. Winds through the
period remain light/variable into Sunday and then become more east
to northeast Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  82  63  83 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   63  84  65  83 /  30  20  10  20
MLC   62  83  64  83 /  10  10   0  20
BVO   57  82  58  84 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   58  82  58  81 /  50  10   0  30
BYV   59  80  61  79 /  70  10   0  20
MKO   61  82  62  82 /  20  10   0  10
MIO   59  81  61  83 /  30   0   0   0
F10   60  82  62  83 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   64  81  65  80 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
458 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-242200-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
458 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing Through Mid Evening.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

POOR VISIBILITY.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered rain showers along with chances for thunderstorms remain
forecast across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
into this evening as an area of low pressure moves through the
region. The greater thunder potential with an isolated to limited
severe threat resides over far northeast Oklahoma into far
northwest Arkansas ahead of the low pressure center. Also, the
slow movement of these showers and storms will create locally
heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flood concerns. This
activity should taper off and exit late evening, with a slight
chance of rain remaining into the overnight hours for parts of
northwest Arkansas.

Late tonight into Sunday morning, patchy areas of fog are expected
to develop mainly within the valleys of northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. This fog may be dense in spots and should burn
off shortly after sunrise Sunday.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Dense Fog Potential.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Patchy fog may linger into Sunday morning mainly in the valleys
of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This fog may be
dense in spots and will burn off shortly after sunrise. After
a relative lull in the activity Sunday, daily thunderstorm
chances are forecast next week, peaking during the afternoon
hours each day. Organized severe weather is not expected, but
slow- moving storm could drop locally heavy rainfall which could
lead to isolated flash flooding.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
508 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

OKZ049-053-232245-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
508 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL PUSHMATAHA AND
NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 508 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 6 miles
southeast of Oleta, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Sobol...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3415 9535 3425 9515 3416 9515 3416 9516
      3405 9516 3403 9524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 319DEG 10KT 3415 9524

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

ARZ011-232345-
Madison AR-
622 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY
THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 621 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
east of Aurora, moving northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and up to dime size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Aurora...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 9349 3589 9359 3599 9372 3610 9362
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 135DEG 4KT 3599 9361

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH