Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

 - Strong to severe thunderstorm potential to continue into early
   Saturday morning with increasing heavy rainfall potential.

 - Cooler and drier conditions Sunday into early next week.

 - Unsettled pattern returns late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

The severe weather potential has ramped up over the last hour or
so with the intensification of the line segment along the cold
front in far northeast Oklahoma and the arrival of a complex that
developed earlier in the evening to the west in parts of western
and central Oklahoma. The latter has a history of reported brief
tornadoes, as well as severe winds, and is just now moving into
parts of east central Oklahoma along I-40. Both effective shear
and instability drop off east of Highway 75, with potential for
the severity to decrease some once the storms move east of the
highway. Rainfall rates in the existing storms have been greater
than an inch an hour per mesonet observations, reinforcing the
earlier thoughts that the heavy rain and flash flood threat would
increase late this evening and into early Saturday morning.
Okfuskee and Okmulgee counties have been added to the Flood Watch
given these observations.

Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front from the north
leading to most of the rainfall shifting south and east of the
area by midday Saturday. A general decrease in cloudiness and
below normal temperatures should be expected for the afternoon
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A more settled pattern will prevail for the remainder of the
weekend and into the early to middle part of next week. Surface
high pressure will linger across the region from Saturday night
into Monday, leading to a couple of chilly mornings on Sunday and
Monday. Maximum relative humidities and lighter wind speeds both
mornings may lead to some frost potential that may require an
advisory on a future shift. The high moves away, leading to a
return to southerly winds and warmer temperatures Monday into
Tuesday. The warming trend will continue into Wednesday.

Toward the end of next week, the flow aloft becomes more
southwesterly as an upper level low moves toward the southwestern
United States. This will increase the potential for showers and
thunderstorms once again, as moisture increases and a front
approaches from the north and lingers across the Southern and
Central Plains. The main upper level system looks to make a slow
approach toward the area, leading to potential for multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at the
northeast Oklahoma sites. A line of thunderstorms will affect the
southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites during the first
few hours of the forecast period with MVFR/IFR conditions
expected. MVFR ceilngs and light showers will continue into
Saturday morning at those sites before the rain ends and
conditions improve to VFR. North to northwest winds will gust near
20 knots at times during the day Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  42  68  44 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   67  43  70  43 /  90   0   0   0
MLC   66  45  69  43 /  80   0   0   0
BVO   64  37  68  39 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   64  39  66  40 /  80   0   0   0
BYV   61  40  63  38 /  80   0   0   0
MKO   64  40  67  40 /  60   0   0   0
MIO   61  37  64  38 /  20   0   0   0
F10   64  41  68  40 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   66  45  69  44 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ049-065-066-
     068>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-010-019-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
447 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-042200-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
447 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD AND HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
 	ONSET...Mid Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A line of thunderstorms is ongoing late this afternoon across
western and central Oklahoma and is expected to sweep eastward
through the evening and into early Saturday morning across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. During the early to middle part of
the evening, a large hail and damaging wind threat will exist,
along with a low, but nonzero chance of tornadoes. The primary
threats will transition to damaging wind, heavy rain and flash
flooding mid to late evening and into early Saturday morning
across areas south of Interstate 44.

In addition, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will
remain late this afternoon and into the early evening ahead of the
main line of storms. This activity will have a lesser potential to
be severe.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm and High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers will be ongoing early Saturday across southeast Oklahoma
and portions of western Arkansas, ending by late Saturday
morning. Quiet weather is then expected before thunderstorm
chances return by the end of next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1213 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

OKZ070>075-040545-
Haskell OK-Pittsburg OK-Muskogee OK-Latimer OK-Sequoyah OK-
McIntosh OK-
1213 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT HASKELL...NORTHEASTERN
MCINTOSH...NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH...NORTH CENTRAL LATIMER...EAST
CENTRAL PITTSBURG AND SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM
CDT...

At 1212 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Warner to near Porum to 4 miles east of Blocker.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Kanima...                         Briartown...
Vian...                           Whitefield...
Webbers Falls...                  Kinta...
Porum...                          Quinton...
Warner...                         Featherston...
Stigler...                        Enterprise...
Gore...                           Tamaha...
Lequire...                        Lewisville...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 272 and
297.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
southeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 9554 3533 9536 3557 9542 3558 9496
      3534 9493 3502 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 0512Z 268DEG 33KT 3550 9532 3533 9528 3507 9548

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1219 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

OKZ067-068-070-072-040545-
Muskogee OK-Sequoyah OK-Cherokee OK-Wagoner OK-
1219 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH...
SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...SOUTHERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM CDT...

At 1219 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 2 miles south of Sequoyah State Park to 2 miles
southeast of Keefeton. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tahlequah...                      Eldon...
Greenleaf State Park...           Box...
Pumpkin Center...                 Fort Gibson...
Cookson...                        Braggs...
Cherokee Landing State Park...    Sequoyah State Park...
Lake Tenkiller State Park...      Keefeton...
Muskogee...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 9481 3554 9492 3556 9535 3591 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 264DEG 31KT 3586 9523 3558 9531

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1242 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

OKZ068>070-072-074-040630-
Haskell OK-Adair OK-Muskogee OK-Sequoyah OK-Cherokee OK-
1242 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN HASKELL...WESTERN
SEQUOYAH...WESTERN ADAIR...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MUSKOGEE COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM CDT...

At 1242 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 5 miles west of Cherokee Landing State Park to 3
miles southeast of Gore to 3 miles southwest of Stigler. Movement was
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Kanima...                         Sallisaw...
Eldon...                          Proctor...
Christie...                       Vian...
Marble City...                    Box...
Kinta...                          Cookson...
Brushy Lake State Park...         Mc Key...
Keota...                          Stigler...
Cherokee Landing State Park...    Bunch...
Tamaha...                         Lake Tenkiller State Park...
Tahlequah...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 288 and
307.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 9462 3527 9482 3510 9525 3547 9512
      3582 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0542Z 238DEG 23KT 3579 9500 3551 9506 3521 9516

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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