Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
707 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop tonight after sunset.
A few severe storms possible (30%), with large hail and damaging
winds the main hazards.

- Much cooler tomorrow and Wednesday behind cold front, with
occasional periods of rain.

- Gradually warming up again towards the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Broad confluent flow evident on water vapor imagery this afternoon,
with one deep upper low dropping southeast over the Northern Plains
while another spins just offshore California. The northern stream
low is beginning to push a cold front southward through the area. As
that occurs this evening, isentropic ascent will increase along and
north of the boundary, allowing scattered thunderstorms to develop
within the unstable airmass. Forecast soundings indicate storms will
likely be a bit high-based and elevated, but in an environment of
moderate CAPE (1500-2000 J/kg), moderate effective shear (~35 kts),
and very steep mid-level lapse rates (8-8.5 C/km). So large hail
potentially up to golf ball size looks to be the main hazard with
any initially developing storm, followed by some damaging wind
potential as updrafts become more numerous just along/behind the
front.

Much cooler air will filter in behind the front overnight. With the
southern stream upper low still well to our southwest, we'll see a
longer period of continued isentropic ascent atop the chilly
airmass. So off and on rain chances look to continue throughout the
day Tuesday and into Wednesday. Particularly if low clouds can
linger throughout the day, this will keep temperatures down, with
highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

The main trough axis looks to pass off to our east by Thursday,
bringing in drier and sunnier conditions. This should help us begin
another warming trend into the weekend ahead of our next upper
trough. Details with this system are fuzzy 5-6 days out, but in
generally expect another increase in rain chances as it approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A few scattered thunderstorms may develop over or close to the
terminals after 3Z. A cold front will pass through and most of the
thunderstorms will move southeast of the terminals. light rain
showers may continue through after 9Z into the morning hours, north
of the front. At this time ceilings should remain above 4000 feet.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Gargan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1247 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-051800-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
1247 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Storm chances increase this evening. A few storms could become
severe with mainly a large hail with damaging wind threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1101 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

KSZ036>038-050430-
Wabaunsee-Geary-Morris-
1101 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN GEARY...
NORTHEASTERN MORRIS AND SOUTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES THROUGH 1130
PM CDT...

At 1101 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Parkerville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down twigs or small limbs and blow
         around objects. Hail damage to outdoor objects and
         vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
White City, Alta Vista, Dwight, and Parkerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3866 9668 3886 9681 3899 9648 3876 9638
TIME...MOT...LOC 0401Z 243DEG 21KT 3879 9668

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1130 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

KSZ037-038-054-050500-
Wabaunsee-Lyon-Morris-
1130 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MORRIS...
SOUTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE AND NORTHWESTERN LYON COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1130 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles south of Alta Vista, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down twigs or small limbs and blow
         around objects. Minor damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alta Vista and Council Grove Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 9655 3886 9656 3892 9622 3866 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 0430Z 267DEG 19KT 3878 9646

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Griesemer