Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
216 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible this afternoon into early evening as storms
  develop along a cold front over north central areas and move east.
  Very large hail, damaging winds along with potential for tornadoes
  is possible. Flooding also can't be ruled out over areas that see
  repeated storms.

- A brief window for very high fire danger may set up behind the cold
  front as winds change to the northwest over north central counties
  and the relative humidity falls to around or just below 20 percent
  but overall the winds are expected to remain under 20 mph.

- Additional rounds of severe storms may be possible late day on
  Saturday and then again late day into the overnight hours on
  Sunday. Sunday may be the more impactful storm system but details
  still remain uncertain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The main period of concern for today is focused on this afternoon
and evening. Currently, the upper low is over the northern Plains
region with a negatively tilted trough and the best forcing
extending into northeastern Nebraska where storms have been ongoing
for a couple of hours. The surface cold front is just west of the
area through north central Kansas into central and southwestern
Kansas areas. The dryline is further south into north central
Oklahoma.

Storms are expected to initiate across the local area this afternoon
but may initially struggle with strong capping sampled from the 18Z
KTOP sounding. Much of the area today has been under a quite
expansive area of stratus but clearing has taken place over western
areas. Perhaps this has allowed for the cap to weaken sufficiently
over western areas. The lift from the cold front should allow for
storms in an area of steeper low level lapse rates to initiate due
to the slightly better and more long lasting insolation that has
taken place. Mid-level lapse rates are very steep so any storms that
breach the cap should rapidly intensify. If the clearing can continue
over the next couple of hours then the low level moisture in place
will allow for rapid destabilization as well. With environmental
southerly flow in place the low level hodograph structures should
allow for support of tornadoes if the winds can become locally backed
with initial supercellular storms but also 0-3km shear vectors
appear to be forecast to become more orthogonal to the any developing
line of storms later as storms grow upscale along the front. Long
story short, expect initial semi-discrete supercells mainly possible
of very large hail and a tornado or two. Then storms congeal into a
line over the next 3-4 hrs as they advance east focusing more on the
damaging wind threat and possible flooding but also QLCS type tornado
potential. The hail threat appears to diminish with eastward motion.
Two concerns with eastward motion is the cap strength combined with
prior resident time of the stratus. What impact does that have on the
evolution of storms remains to be seen but it wouldn't be surprising
to see storms initiate and rapidly intensify then struggle with
eastward progression.

This weekend, the potential for two more quick moving weather
systems move through the area with severe weather impacts Saturday
afternoon/evening and then again on Sunday evening/night. The time
of day the forcing shifts over the area on Sunday will be critical
to the development of any storms as well as the severity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Cigs continue to lift overall and some areas continue to see clearing
but these have tended to quickly fill back in with the inversion
holding strong aloft and continued moist advection into the area. The
trends point to BKN to SCT cigs that remain above VFR levels into
and through this afternoon. The cold front is west of KMHK and will
continue to push into and through the area this afternoon into this
evening. Expect thunderstorms to form along the front by mid to late
this afternoon but should progressively move through so have TEMPO
groups indicating the best time frame with storm potential to impact
terminals. Winds change to the WNW post frontal passage.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
211 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-241915-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
211 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, north central Kansas, and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe storms possible this afternoon into early evening as storms
develop along a cold front over north central areas and move east.
Very large hail, damaging winds along with potential for tornadoes
is possible. Flooding also can't be ruled out over areas that see
repeated storms.

A brief window for very high fire danger may set up behind the
cold front as winds change to the northwest over north central
counties and the relative humidity falls to around or just below 20
percent but overall the winds are expected to remain under 20 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional rounds of severe storms may be possible late day on
Saturday and then again late day into the overnight hours on Sunday.
Sunday may be the more impactful storm system but details still
remain uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe hail, wind or
rainfall amounts over one inch to the National Weather Service in
Topeka.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
146 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

KSZ008-009-231915-
Republic-Washington-
146 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN REPUBLIC AND
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 146 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Narka, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor
         objects and vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Narka and Mahaska.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9715 3983 9737 3994 9756 4000 9751
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 218DEG 27KT 3995 9741

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
224 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

KSZ008-009-232000-
Republic-Washington-
224 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL REPUBLIC AND
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 224 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Haddam, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Strong wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail damage to outdoor objects and
         vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Haddam and Mahaska.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for north central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9702 3980 9732 3989 9744 4000 9735
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 219DEG 26KT 3990 9731

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BD

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