Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
205 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low chance for severe storms remains this afternoon and
  evening. Damaging winds, hail up to quarter size, and a
  tornado or two are possible.

- Rounds of showers and storms producing 1-2" per hour rainfall rates
  could lead to flooding, mainly north of Interstate 70. A
  Flood Watch remains in effect into early Friday.

- Showers and storms may impact northern Kansas Friday evening/night
  and bring a low risk for severe weather and heavy rainfall.

- A higher chance for showers and storms comes Saturday night
  into Sunday night. Locally heavy rainfall is possible again,
  most likely across east central Kansas.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A mid-level shortwave is moving east across the Central Plains this
afternoon with a MCV spinning across central Kansas. An uncapped and
unstable airmass has lead to the development of widely scattered
thunderstorms and coverage has been increasing as the MCV
approaches. While deep shear is rather weak, low-level shear
increases as the MCV moves towards the area, supporting
multicellular structures or even some supercellular structures. Hail
up to quarter size and 60 MPH wind gusts are the main severe hazard.
Steep low-level lapse rates could stretch existing surface vorticity
which, along with the elongation of the low-level hodograph, leads
to the potential for a tornado or two to spin up. The flooding
threat remains as well with HREF members showing the potential for 1-
2" per hour rainfall rates, with best chances for repeated rounds of
rain north of Interstate 70. Rainfall totals of 1-2 are likely with
localized areas up to 4 inches possible. The Flood Watch remains in
effect through 4 AM.

Rain is progged to exit the area early Friday morning with dry time
through the majority of the day. Similar to the past few days, the
environment becomes uncapped by Friday afternoon and isolated storms
could develop. However, a lack of large-scale ascent should limit
coverage and CAMs are generally void of convection until late
afternoon and into the evening when a surface front/trough sags into
southern Nebraska. While guidance varies in location of this
boundary, they have shifted farther north with convection developing
in Nebraska along the nose of the low-level jet. This leads to less
certainty in these storms impacting the forecast area as steering
flow should push storms east-southeast. If storms do impact the
area, they could produce wind gusts of 60 MPH and hail up to quarter
size. High PWATs could lead to locally heavy rainfall as well.

Another break in precipitation appears likely Saturday before the
closed upper low lifts northeast Saturday night into Sunday. Showers
and storms build back into the area and the environment again favors
high rainfall rates with PWATs above the 90th percentile of
climatology. The good news is the best signal for heavy rainfall is
across southeast and east central Kansas which have missed out on
the bulk of rain over the past few days. The NBM mean shows 1-1.5"
of rain across east central Kansas, with the 75th percentile of 2-
2.5".

Conditions dry out for the beginning of next week as ridging builds
overhead. While strength of this ridge varies among guidance, this
ridge brings summer-like heat and humidity. Heat indices of 100+
degrees are appearing more likely beginning Tuesday and continuing
into the middle of next. There could be a couple of waves that ride
the ridge and produce showers/storms, but predictability is low
this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Scattered storms are developing near KMHK, but coverage and direct
impacts to this terminal remain uncertain. Maintained a PROB30 group
for now. CIGs should be mainly low-end VFR, but could drop to MVFR
briefly this afternoon. Better chances for storms come this evening,
especially at KMHK. Kept a PROB30 group going at KTOP/KFOE with
a mention of VCTS at KMHK for the most likely timing of this
convection. Winds remain southerly around 10 kts with gusts of
20kts through the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034.

&&

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
214 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-051915-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
214 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, north central Kansas, and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area this
afternoon and into the evening. Rounds of showers and storms
producing 1-2" per hour rainfall rates could lead to flooding,
mainly north of Interstate 70. A Flood Watch remains in effect for
this area into early Friday.

A few severe thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and
evening across the area. Damaging winds, hail up to quarter size, and a
tornado or two are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday evening and
Friday night across northern Kansas. Storms could produce locally
heavy rainfall as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hail, damaging wind, tornadoes,
or flooding to the National Weather Service in Topeka.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

KSZ009-041800-
Washington-
1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
THROUGH 100 PM CDT...

At 1230 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Morrowville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor
         objects and vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Hanover, Morrowville, Haddam, and Hollenberg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9690 3998 9681 3993 9681 3971 9724
      3982 9736 4000 9724
TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 231DEG 34KT 3981 9721

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Gargan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
334 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

KSZ038-042100-
Wabaunsee-
334 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 334 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Eskridge, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor
         objects and vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eskridge, Harveyville, and Keene.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 9619 3874 9625 3880 9629 3903 9606
      3884 9594 3878 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 235DEG 30KT 3880 9619

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
352 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

KSZ024-042115-
Jackson-
352 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM CDT...

At 351 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Potawatomi Reservation, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor
         objects and vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Holton and Circleville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3945 9569 3932 9593 3935 9599 3955 9590
      3952 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 216DEG 28KT 3937 9592

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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