Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1223 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A conditional threat for severe storms continues this evening,
 however, some uncertainty exists in whether storms develop.

-Best chances for storms early week will be in central KS. Chances
 increase eastward later in the week.

-Hot and humid to start the week, slightly cooler midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

The main focus in the short-term is on the potential for severe
thunderstorms this evening. Looking at the synoptic pattern,
southwest flow persists aloft with an H5 trough axis across the
Northern Plains. Water vapor isn't showing much in the way of
shortwaves within the southwest flow as of midday. At the surface
low pressure is over northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas early
this afternoon. Instability has been building in the wake of this
morning's thunderstorm activity, although cloud cover is hampering
temps/dew points and associated instability a bit. The cloud cover
could continue to be a factor. However, most models agree on a quick
increase in instability into the evening with over 3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE in eastern KS by 21/22Z. The 18Z TOP RAOB still shows a cap
with 14C at 750mb. RAP forecast soundings show a similar cap, but
erode it by around 01/02Z. Some CAMs show storm initiation in our
southeastern counties around that same timeframe. Have kept POPs
only around 30 percent given uncertainty that remains on a forcing
mechanism and whether the cap can be overcome. If storms do develop,
there should be enough instability and deep layer shear to support
supercells with a damaging wind and hail risk. Backed sfc and low
level winds would also aid in a tornado risk with both RAP and HRRR
forecast soundings showing over 100 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH and over 200
m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH.

Monday looks hot and humid with highs reaching the upper 80s and low
90s. Most of the day should be dry but chances for storms will begin
increasing again Monday night and early Tuesday, mainly in central
KS where models show impacts from a shortwave H5 trough. A mid-level
ridge will build over the area early in the week and a sfc ridge
will move in from the northeast midweek. That set up should keep the
main axis of storms in central KS until the upper ridge advances
eastward as an upper trough moves across the far northern CONUS.
Shortwaves aloft can be tough to predict several days in advance,
but in general, POPs will increase eastward late in the week as that
ridge pushes east. The 12Z run of long range models continue to show
a storm system moving over KS next weekend, which would keep rain
chances around. Temperature-wise, a slight cool down is expected
through midweek due to the sfc ridge nudging in from the east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Thunderstorms will likely continue in the vicinity of KTOP
and KFOE for another hour or two. Once these storms clear out, calm
winds and high moisture should help some areas of fog develop. Some
uncertainty on exact timing and coverage, but areas towards KMHK may
see the densest fog towards sunrise. Any fog should clear out by mid
morning, with VFR conditions and light east winds in place the rest
of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Reese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
158 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-011900-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
158 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few thunderstorms may develop in eastern Kansas this evening. Any
storm that develops could produce damaging wind, and large hail. A
tornado could also occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a slight chance for a few additional storms Monday
evening and night. These storms could produce some gusty winds or
small hail, primarily in central Kansas.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1105 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     Hail             3 E Gridley             38.10N 95.84W
05/31/2026  M2.25 Inch       Coffey             KS   Public

            Resent. Report from mPING: Hen Egg+ (2.25
            in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1114 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 PM     Hail             5 WSW Emporia           38.38N 96.26W
05/31/2026  M1.00 Inch       Lyon               KS   Storm Chaser

            Spotter network report.

&&

DR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1127 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 PM     Hail             Gridley                 38.10N 95.88W
05/31/2026  E2.50 Inch       Coffey             KS   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager relayed photo of estimated
            tennis ball size hail in Gridley. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

DR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1128 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 PM     Hail             6 W Le Roy              38.10N 95.74W
05/31/2026  E1.75 Inch       Coffey             KS   Public

            Report from mPING: Golf Ball (1.75 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1153 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1143 PM     Hail             3 N Olpe                38.30N 96.18W
05/31/2026  E1.50 Inch       Lyon               KS   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SE Alta Vista         38.82N 96.45W
06/01/2026  E60 MPH          Morris             KS   Trained Spotter

            Also getting hail but cant see what size.

&&