Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
629 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening
  with damaging winds and large hail.

- A conditional risk for severe storms remains for late Sunday
  afternoon and evening. If storms develop, large hail and damaging
  winds are possible.

- Low precipitation chances linger for much of next week with
  seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Scattered convection continues at midday in east-central Kansas in
broadly-diffluent though modest southwest mid/upper level flow in
persistent isentropic lift under easterly surface flow. This lift
should slowly dissipate into early Sunday as southerly winds return
near the surface and upper heights rise. The main area of attention
over the later afternoon today remains to be to the southwest where
a dryline is sharpening. Forcing here remains largely limited to
convergence along the dryline with the main upper wave displaced to
the northwest. ML CAPE was already around 3000 J/kg at 18Z ahead of
the dryline and will continue to increase northeast with time and
space into the evening. Deep-layer shear continues to look less than
ideal for supercells, so most CAMS congealing storms into at least a
broken line as they move northeast seems on track. Wind gusts may
the be primary threat this far northeast with DCAPE values
potentially around 1200 J/kg into the early evening, though some
large hail could still occur. Most of the severe threat should be to
the east by midnight, but some continued WAA convection may linger
overnight. A somewhat to very unstable airmass with somewhat
stronger shear will likely remain in place Sunday and Monday though
forcing for ascent is hard to find. Generally-weak low-level flow
Sunday could leave outflow boundaries around for some focus with the
main time of storm concern from late afternoon to late evening.

Weak upper riding looks to take hold from the central Plains
northeast into central Canada for the middle portions of next week,
keeping precipitation chances somewhat reduced and slightly favoring
central Kansas over eastern Kansas. Highs in the 80s and lows in the
60s should dominate this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Convective-based forecast as a line of thunderstorms moving out of
central Nebraska is expected to impact the terminals later this
evening. Upgraded KMHK from a PROB30 to prevailing line of TS as
confidence was better for the line of thunderstorms to hold together
that far. As the line moves east, storms may weaken a bit and
confidence in timing and coverage is not high so kept with the
PROB30 for KTOP and KFOE. MVFR CIGs move in by early Sunday morning
with clearing to VFR by the late TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Griesemer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
148 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-311900-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
148 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, north central Kansas, and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to move east to northeast across the
area late this afternoon to around midnight tonight. Some of these
may be severe and produce damaging winds gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across the
entire area late Sunday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
810 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 N Enterprise          38.94N 97.12W
05/30/2026                   Dickinson          KS   Emergency Mngr

            3-5 inch limbs down.

&&

ng