Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
622 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms becoming numerous early to mid afternoon today
  and spreading east to southeast this evening. Very large hail,
  damaging winds, and tornadoes all quite possible.

- Flash flooding remains a concern through tonight especially where
  heavy rain fall Sunday night.

- Gusty south winds on track for the next several hours in
  southwestern areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Warm, humid airmass was surging north into central Kansas ahead of a
cold front toward a nearly-stationary front just northeast of
northeast Kansas with a modest upper wave just upstream. Instability
of 3000 J/kg already commonplace in central Kansas at 17Z with 40-50
knots of deep-layer shear. Vectors for this layer remain close to
parallel to the front so there is some uncertainty in how long
storms can remain discrete, but some backing of low-level flow and
otherwise good setup brings all severe hazards in play. Main area of
concern over the next few hours is north-central Kansas with storms
spreading east and southeast and becoming more widespread with time.
Threats should turn more to wind versus strong tornado in eastern
areas as mode shifts to more linear. Overall a more progressive
system should keep storm residence somewhat limited, but areas that
saw heavy rain Sunday night will not take much more rain to
experience flash flooding and intense updrafts with PW values around
1.5 inches will bring quick rainfall. Storms push southeast before
dawn with flash flooding threat falling off, though rivers and
creeks may be high for a few more days. Surface winds

Next few days continue to look benign with modified Canadian high
pressure in place with cooler temperatures. Moisture return in the
mid-levels supports at least moderate precipitation chances Thursday
into Thursday night but instability remains modest. A more unstable
airmass should return around the holiday weekend though forcing for
ascent is not readily apparent.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Line of strong/severe thunderstorms pushing through KMHX currently
with continued eastward movement of main convective line. TEMPO
group through 01-05z for KTOP and KFOE for TSRA with viz 1SM and
MVFR/IFR conditions. Conditions improve from west to east later in
forecast period, around 05z for western TAF sites; 10z for eastern
TAF sites.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-
KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-
KSZ059.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-
KSZ038-KSZ054.

&&

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...JTW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
138 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-191845-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
138 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, north central Kansas, and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

South winds sustained around 25 MPH with gusts around 45 MPH are
forecast for locations southwest of a line from Abilene to Alma to
Emporia in to the evening.

Severe thunderstorms are expected through the middle of the
afternoon in north central Kansas. These storms may form into a
line as they move east and southeast late this afternoon and this
evening. Very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few strong
tornadoes are the main hazards.

Localized flooding is also a concern, especially if storms
persist over areas that received heavy rain Sunday night. A Flood
Watch remains in effect through 7 AM Tuesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will likely be needed this afternoon or tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

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