Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
151 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms likely tonight. Isolated to scattered severe
  storms remain possible late this afternoon and this evening
  with large hail and damaging winds.

- Cool and cloudy Friday with some showers.

- Warmer this weekend into the middle of next week with several
  chances for more thunderstorms, some possibly severe mainly
  Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Moisture advection near and north of the surface front over extreme
northern Kansas continues to support high-based convection early
this afternoon. This activity, and the lack of much forcing along
the front, lead to some uncertainty in how late afternoon and evening
convection potential transpires. Other than interference from this
precipitation, the setup isn't much different than earlier
expectations, with moderate instability in decent mid-level lapse
rates despite dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s and deep-layer
shear around 35 knots. Most early-morning model output produces near
all deeper convection north of the boundary and this could easily be
the case based on a less pristine warm sector. The front looks to
settle north of the area late this afternoon, and with high cloud
bases, expect the main storm concerns to be wind and hail initially
then hail into the late evening. Storm motions may be parallel
enough to the boundary to bring some locally heavy rain early, but
pushing of the front from outflow and the northern Plains upper wave
should keep storm residence area somewhat limited, with the front
south of the CWA by mid-morning Friday. Deep low stratus and some
scattered precip should keep temps much cooler Friday.

Moisture return Friday night into early Sunday should lead to more
showers and storms, though limited instability should keep a severe
threat in check. Southwest upper flow brings a weak wave or two
through late Sunday into Monday night with minor concern for some
dryline convection Sunday and more so Monday, but greater potential
looks to come around Tuesday when the upper wave may emerge from the
Southwest. Timing differences remain notable at this range and
instability and shear Sunday through Tuesday is not impressive --
LREF probabilities of at least 1000 J/kg with at least 30 knots of
shear are less than 50 percent. Clouds and precip may keep highs
around 70 in some places this weekend with warmer conditions Monday
into at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

High-based showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move
east-northeast from central into northeast Kansas and see little
reason this won't continue for at least several more hours.
Main concerns still on track to come after 00Z as more robust
convection looks more likely though aforementioned activity
leads to some uncertainty. Have increased to TEMPO for TSRA
when potential is highest though timing confidence is not high.
Guidance is very consistent in IFR ceilings moving in behind the
front for the latter third of the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
347 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-100900-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
347 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon and
evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main hazards
with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Spotters may be needed this afternoon or tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
625 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Hail             1 SE Belleville         39.82N 97.63W
04/09/2026  E1.00 Inch       Republic           KS   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

AJ

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