Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
533 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are likely (60-80% chance) across the area this
  evening and overnight. A couple of storms could be strong to
  severe and produce hail up to 1-1.5" inches in diameter and localized
  damaging wind gusts.

- Severe storm chances return Friday afternoon and evening with
  all modes of severe weather possible (large hail, damaging
  winds and a few tornadoes). Uncertainty still remains, see
  discussion below for more details.

- Dry weather returns this weekend with above average
  temperatures into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Overall, not a ton of drastic changes to severe storm chances in the
last 12 hours but let's dig into some of the latest thinking for
tonight's and Friday's severe storm risk. The upper low that will
bring severe chances to the area still resides over the mountain
west. Through the day today, vorticity advection over the central
Rockies will increase as the main upper wave takes on more of a
negative tilt by early Friday morning. WAA and moisture advection
within the southerly low level flow regime will usher in 50-55
degree dewpoints this afternoon and evening, further helping to
destabilize the atmosphere. For the remainder of the afternoon, mid
to upper 60 degree highs can be expected by the mid to late
afternoon, with warmer areas in areas that have scattered out the
Cu.

Storm chances increase late this evening and overnight into Friday
morning as mid-level energy overspreads the area and isentropic
ascent maximizes within a 50-60kt LLJ. Some elevated scattered
convection may initially develop across northern Kansas near a speed
convergence zone of the LLJ nose. By 12AM - 2AM, convection that had
developed along the dryline in TX and OK will move northeast into
central KS. Severe parameters by midnight tonight 1000-1500 J/kg of
MUCAPE, 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear and modest ML lapse
rates indicate a multi-cellular storm mode, but cannot rule out a
few low-topped supercells given shear profiles. An 850mb warm layer
should help to keep most convection elevated, so main hazards with
the strongest storms will be large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter).
Cannot rule out some localized wind gusts with convection moving out
of south-central Kansas, but the wind threat should mainly be
confined to central KS.

Attention then quickly turns to Friday's severe weather risk after
storms and showers move east of the area by 7-9 AM. All of eastern
Kansas is still looking at the chance for widespread strong to
severe storms Friday (late afternoon and evening), but there are
still some uncertainties with this system. The overall synoptic set-
up has not changed much with a negatively-tilted embedded shortwave
ejecting into northwestern Kansas with low-level cyclones and
troughs extending from north-central KS and south towards western
Oklahoma. As the mid-level shortwave ejects into the high central
Plains, a 60 knot 500 mb jet will overspread the state by the early
afternoon. Closer to the surface, CAM guidance suggests a triple
point to develop near the Salina, KS area with a dryline extending
south and a cold front draped from Omaha, NE to southwest Kansas.
Ahead of these features in the warm sector, 60-65 degree dewpoints
will push north into eastern Kansas slowly increasing instability.
That said, stratus seems likely to hang around in the warm sector
for much of the morning and early afternoon Friday, limiting
warming. Temperatures should still push into the upper 60s and low
70s under the WAA pattern, but instability will be on the lower side
given the lack of solar insolation. With the potential for stratus
holding on into the afternoon, low-level lapse rates will remain
fairly weak. Even with some weak forcing with a pre-frontal trough
by the later afternoon hours Friday, confidence is not overly high
that convection will be able to fire within the warm-sector without
a robust source of lift (i.e. cold front/dryline). There is a
possibility that some cells do develop but struggle to maintain
an updraft due to 700mb warm layers and dry air entrainment. All
this said, if a scenario plays out where stratus scatters out
more than guidance is suggesting, numerous cells would be more
likely to develop with all modes of severe weather possible, but
this scenario is not overly likely (10-20% of occurrence). The
most likely scenario it would seem would be for a storm or two
to develop by the 4-7 PM time range before the cold front moves
in from the north and west. Any storms that develop ahead of the
cold front will bring the highest risk for large hail (2+
inches) and tornadoes. As the frontal boundary slides into
northeast Kansas, it should provide enough lift to generate
convection with storms quickly growing upscale and forming a
line. Given the deep and low level shear profiles across eastern
Kansas Friday evening, cannot rule out a QLCS tornado threat
within the cold front convection. These tornadoes would be
fairly weak (EF0-EF1). This seems to align with a high shear,
low CAPE set-up. That said, damaging winds gusts and hail up to
1 inch in diameter seem to be the main concerns. Storm threat
should come to an end by midnight Friday night.

High pressure builds in quickly behind the frontal boundary early
Saturday morning ushering in clearer skies and dry conditions for the
weekend. CAA will limit warming a bit Saturday afternoon, topping
temperatures out in the mid 50s. Low-level flow returns to the
south/southwest by Sunday returning above-average temperatures to
the area for the early part of next week. Some precipitation chances
build back in by Tuesday and Wednesday as a cutoff low moves in from
the southwestern US. With the warm and moist airmass paring with
shear aloft, this could usher in another chance for strong to severe
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

MVFR cigs have returned and will likely lower to IFR for a
period overnight as storms approach terminals. Still uncertainty
in coverage and location of storms, but have included a window
for some TS at sites. Showers and storm chances decrease around
sunrise with VFR conditions looking probable for a few hours
Friday morning before MVFR cigs build back in. Winds increase
from the south overnight, becoming gusty with gusts of 25-30kts
through the daytime Friday. Shower and storm chances increase
again late in the period, but confidence in coverage and
location is too loc for inclusion.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Flanagan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1259 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-061900-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
1259 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday night, mainly after
midnight into early Friday morning. Hail up to one inch in diameter
is the main hazard with an isolated damaging wind threat near central
KS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a greater risk for severe storms Friday afternoon into the
evening. These storms could produce damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and potentially a few tornadoes.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
755 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

KSZ021-022-035-036-060230-
Geary-Clay-Dickinson-Riley-
755 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN DICKINSON...
NORTHWESTERN GEARY...SOUTHWESTERN RILEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY
COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CST...

At 755 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Milford Lake, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to outdoor objects and vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wakefield, Riley, Milford, Leonardville, and Milford Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 9703 3905 9713 3942 9696 3927 9668
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 213DEG 35KT 3909 9703

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH