River Flood Warning 7, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
620 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Multiple opportunities for thunderstorms from this weekend into late
next week.

-Severe storms are possible with any development this afternoon and
again Sunday afternoon.

-Temperatures are warm next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Scattered convection early this morning is occurring along the nose
of the LLJ, and will shift northward into Nebraska by mid-morning.
MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and about 25 kts of effective inflow shear
could result in some small hail and brief gusty winds with storms
early today. Isolated flooding could also occur, especially in north-
central and far northern KS. Later today, a warm front moves
northward through the area, allowing for theta-e advection and an
associated increase in instability. A few CAMS show isolated
thunderstorm development in the warm sector after 20Z, but given the
overall lack of forcing, have kept POPs low in the 20 to 30 percent
range. If, however, a few storms do develop, they could strengthen
to severe criteria given 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE and around 30 kts
of effective shear. At least a low risk for a tornado or two also
exists, especially in far northern KS and into Nebraska where
hodographs show more low level clockwise curvature, resulting
in 150-200 of sfc-3km SRH.

A brief break in precipitation could occur tonight before POPs
increase again Sunday morning as a weak shortwave trough embedded in
the southwest flow moves over eastern KS. This would just be rain
with some embedded storms, but nothing severe. A dryline will then
set up in central KS by Sunday afternoon. Overall forcing again
looks weak, but if storms form near the dryline later in the day,
severe weather would again be a concern due to steep lapse
rates, 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE and at least 30 kts of deep layer
shear. A similar setup is expected Monday with a dryline in
central KS, but once again, there is a lack of large scale
ascent, and the cap looks to hold much of the day. Thus, the
current thinking is that conditions will stay dry Monday.

A more notable H5 wave will bring better forcing late Tuesday and
Tuesday night, which appears to be the next best chance for
additional thunderstorm activity. Temperatures should stay on the
warm side of average through midweek with highs in the 80s from
Monday through Thursday. Another storm system could bring storms
back to the region on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Storms will likely stay north of terminals this morning, but
there is a low chance (20-30%) for isolated storms this
afternoon. Confidence is not yet high enough to include TS
later today. IFR/LIFR CIGS will linger until midday, when MVFR
CIGS are expected. Continued improvement to VFR is likely by
mid-afternoon. Southeast winds will veer to the south through
the morning and will increase to 10-15 kts, gusting to 20-25
kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
320 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-120830-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
320 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated flooding could occur this morning where heavy rain falls in
north central and far northern Kansas. There is then a low chance
that a few storms develop this afternoon. Severe weather could occur
with any storms that develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated severe storms are again possible Sunday afternoon, mainly in
central Kansas.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf