River Flood Warning 49, NWS Topeka, KS

422 
WGUS83 KTOP 100044
FLSTOP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
744 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...Observed flooding changed to Minor severity and increased in 
duration for the following rivers in Kansas...

  Vermillion Creek near Wamego affecting Pottawatomie County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

This product along with additional weather and stream information is 
available at www.weather.gov/top/.

&&

KSC149-100645-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-260710T0639Z/
/VCWK1.1.ER.260709T2257Z.260709T2345Z.260710T0039Z.NO/
744 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Vermillion Creek near Wamego.

* WHEN...Until just after midnight tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 20.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs along Vermillion 
  Creek.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:45 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 20.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 3.7 feet early
    Tuesday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3940 9619 3940 9616 3933 9620 3933 9624


$$

Prieto

570 
WGUS83 KTOP 100544
FLSTOP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1244 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Kansas...

  Vermillion Creek near Wamego affecting Pottawatomie County.

KSC149-100645-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-260710T0544Z/
/VCWK1.1.ER.260709T2257Z.260710T0115Z.260710T0256Z.NO/
1244 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Vermillion Creek near Wamego.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:45 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 17.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to continue to fall through
    the day.


&&

LAT...LON 3940 9619 3940 9616 3933 9620 3933 9624


$$

Jones

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (10-15%) for isolated showers/storms to redevelop this
afternoon with better chances (30-60%) coming overnight along/south
of I-70.

- Widely scattered showers/storms may linger through Friday,
followed by drying conditions into the weekend.

- Near average temperatures hold through the weekend, then gradually
warm through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Zonal flow aloft dominates the Central Plains, and VAD wind
profilers early this morning show a subtle perturbation moving
through the MO River Valley. The LLJ feeding into the forecast area
helped to maintain the leading cluster of storms as it moved from
southern NE across northeast KS, producing sporadic marginal severe
gusts and brief intense rainfall rates (2-2.5"/hr). The veering jet
will continue to push these storms east with storms progged to exit
the area entirely around sunrise or shortly after, though the
strongest winds and heaviest rain are over at this point.

For the rest of today, the first challenge will be how far south an
outflow boundary will end up from these storms and whether or not it
retreats north as an effective warm front this afternoon. If it does
come back further north than anticipated, then temperatures could
reach the low 90s as far north as I-70. However, a consensus would
keep this boundary closer to I-35 or south. This is where a few
isolated storms could develop late this afternoon as the inverted
trough axis approaches and provides enough convergence for ascent.
Inverted-V soundings suggest strong wind gusts would be possible
with any of these storms that may develop. Greater chances for
storms come late tonight, mainly after midnight with a line or
cluster of storms coming from western KS. It remains uncertain how
strong they might still be this far east and how much of the area
would be impacted. The LLJ is displaced south with the main synoptic
boundary south of the area by that time, but there could be enough
elevated instability and shear to support marginal severe gusts with
storms along the 850mb front. Instability still looks to decrease
with time, leading to weakening storms through the night.

CAMs are suggesting an MCV may be left behind Friday morning,
leading to widely scattered showers and storms lingering in the
area. Depending on how long these persist through the day, clouds
and rain could keep temperatures cooler. The synoptic boundary looks
to hang around just south of the area Friday into Saturday, and
another weak perturbation aloft looks to trigger another round of
scattered showers and storms Friday night into Saturday morning.
This would present a similar setup as tonight with similar storm
risks.

Once the front finally pushes far enough south to keep dry
conditions in our entire area, upper ridging builds across the
Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest early next week. This places
us more in easterly flow, which should keep the thermal ridge north
of us with slightly lower humidity levels here. So despite
temperatures gradually warming through the 90s next week, heat
indices may end up staying in the 90s as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Expect VFR conditions through most of the next 24 hours. Several of
the CAMs keep the showers and thunderstorms south of the terminals
overnight and through the Friday morning. I did keep the prob 30 at
KMHK, between 8z-12Z Friday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
435 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-100945-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
435 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A couple of strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon
into the overnight, mainly along and south of Interstate 70. The
strongest storms may produce damaging wind gusts and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A couple of strong to severe storms are possible once again Friday
night, mainly along and south of Interstate 70. The strongest storms
may produce damaging wind gusts and small hail.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
946 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Louisville         39.23N 96.34W
07/09/2026                   Pottawatomie       KS   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Delayed report. Quite a few 6-8 inch tree
            limbs down. Time estimated from radar.

&&

Flanagan

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1014 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     7 WNW Pauline           39.02N 95.80W
07/09/2026  E65 MPH          Shawnee            KS   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report. 60-65 MPH wind gusts.

0220 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WSW Topeka            39.03N 95.72W
07/09/2026                   Shawnee            KS   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report. 4-6 inch tree limbs down.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1017 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     Rain             1 NNE Horton            39.67N 95.52W
07/09/2026  M2.00 Inch       Brown              KS   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station HRTK1 Horton.

0800 AM     Rain             1 WSW Holton            39.46N 95.76W
07/09/2026  M2.00 Inch       Jackson            KS   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station HLTK1 1.1 W Holton.

0700 AM     Rain             4 W Meriden             39.19N 95.64W
07/09/2026  M2.02 Inch       Shawnee            KS   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station KS-SN-55 Topeka 10.9 NNE.

0700 AM     Rain             Rossville               39.13N 95.95W
07/09/2026  M2.04 Inch       Shawnee            KS   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station RVEK1 Rossville.

0800 AM     Rain             Denison                 39.40N 95.63W
07/09/2026  M2.14 Inch       Jackson            KS   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station KS-JA-12 Denison 0.2 NNW.

0700 AM     Rain             7 NNE Olsburg           39.52N 96.56W
07/09/2026  M2.16 Inch       Pottawatomie       KS   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station FSTK1 Fostoria 7 NW.

0700 AM     Rain             4 ESE Bremen            39.88N 96.71W
07/09/2026  M2.21 Inch       Marshall           KS   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station KS-MS-8 Herkimer 0.5 S.

0939 AM     Rain             3 WSW Meriden           39.17N 95.62W
07/09/2026  M2.26 Inch       Shawnee            KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW7360 Topeka.

0900 AM     Rain             2 NNW Haddam            39.88N 97.31W
07/09/2026  M2.40 Inch       Washington         KS   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station HADK1 Haddam 1 NNW.

0940 AM     Rain             1 NE Bremen             39.91N 96.77W
07/09/2026  M2.44 Inch       Marshall           KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station AV057 Bremen.

0800 AM     Rain             5 SSE Marysville        39.78N 96.62W
07/09/2026  M2.45 Inch       Marshall           KS   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station KS-MS-35 Marysville 5.1
            SSE.

0700 AM     Rain             3 SE Hoyt               39.21N 95.67W
07/09/2026  M2.46 Inch       Shawnee            KS   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station KS-SN-52 Topeka 11.8 N.

0830 AM     Rain             Mclouth                 39.19N 95.21W
07/09/2026  M2.48 Inch       Jefferson          KS   Emergency Mngr

0700 AM     Rain             Blue Rapids             39.68N 96.66W
07/09/2026  M2.72 Inch       Marshall           KS   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station BRPK1 Blue Rapids.

0700 AM     Rain             5 S Frankfort           39.63N 96.41W
07/09/2026  M2.75 Inch       Marshall           KS   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station KS-MS-34 Frankfort 5.2 S.

0937 AM     Rain             Mclouth                 39.20N 95.21W
07/09/2026  M2.83 Inch       Jefferson          KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station GW0320 Mclouth.

0600 AM     Rain             1 NE Marysville         39.85N 96.63W
07/09/2026  M2.87 Inch       Marshall           KS   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station KS-MS-25 Marysville 0.5
            ENE.

0700 AM     Rain             1 SSW Washington        39.81N 97.06W
07/09/2026  M3.05 Inch       Washington         KS   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station WMAK1 0.7 SW
            Washington.

0700 AM     Rain             4 N Lillis              39.67N 96.30W
07/09/2026  M3.06 Inch       Marshall           KS   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station KS-MS-24 Frankfort 6.5 ESE.

0600 AM     Rain             3 SE Valley Falls       39.31N 95.42W
07/09/2026  M3.13 Inch       Jefferson          KS   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station KS-JF-12 Valley Falls 3.2
            SE.

0935 AM     Rain             1 NE Marysville         39.85N 96.63W
07/09/2026  M3.16 Inch       Marshall           KS   ASOS

            ASOS station KMYZ Marysville.

0700 AM     Rain             5 NNW Waterville        39.76N 96.78W
07/09/2026  M3.26 Inch       Marshall           KS   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station KS-MS-31 4 NNW Waterville.

0800 AM     Rain             Marysville              39.84N 96.64W
07/09/2026  M3.27 Inch       Marshall           KS   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station KS-MS-27 Marysville 0.4 S.

0715 AM     Rain             Waterville              39.69N 96.74W
07/09/2026  M3.35 Inch       Marshall           KS   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station KS-MS-17 Waterville 0.2
            ENE.

0700 AM     Rain             5 NW Narka              40.00N 97.50W
07/09/2026  M3.45 Inch       Republic           KS   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station HUBN1 Hubbell.

0700 AM     Rain             Frankfort               39.71N 96.41W
07/09/2026  M3.55 Inch       Marshall           KS   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station KS-MS-4 Frankfort 0.4 NE.

0530 AM     Rain             Frankfort               39.71N 96.42W
07/09/2026  M3.57 Inch       Marshall           KS   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station KS-MS-30 Frankfort 0.1 N.

0700 AM     Rain             3 SSW Valley Falls      39.30N 95.49W
07/09/2026  M3.70 Inch       Jefferson          KS   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station VLYK1 3.1 SW Valley
            Falls.

0700 AM     Rain             4 N Frankfort           39.76N 96.42W
07/09/2026  M3.95 Inch       Marshall           KS   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station KS-MS-12 Frankfort 4.1 N.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1044 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Riley                   39.30N 96.83W
07/09/2026                   Riley              KS   Trained Spotter

            Report of 2-6 inch diameter tree limbs
            broken from thunderstorm winds overnight in
            the city of Riley. Time is estimated from
            radar.

&&

co