River Flood Warning 1, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1149 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and a few rumbles of thunder are possible this morning,
  Expect the rainshowers to continue through the afternoon
  hours. highest rainfall totals along and south of the KS
  Turnpike

- Warm, breezy and dry conditions may lead to heightened fire
  concerns Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper
level trough extending from eastern CO, south-southwest across NM
into northern Mexico. A second upper level trough was located across
the eastern Pacific off the western US coastline. A southern Stream
upper level ridge was located across the lower MS River Valley. A
broad upper trough was located off the eastern US coast over the
western Atlantic Ocean.

The 7Z surface map showed a surface low across the far northwest
corner of the TX PNHDL. A warm front extend east-northeast into
far southern KS. Dewpoints south of the warm front across OK
and North TX were in the mid to upper 50s. North of the warm
front a band of showers and scattered thunderstorms extended
from southern Dickinson County east across Lyon, Osage, and
Franklin counties. These showers and thunderstorms extended
southward into south central and southeast KS. A few showers
were beginning to develop north of MHK.

Today:

AS the NM/CO H5 trough shifts east into western KS and western TX,
DCVA ahead of the H5 trough axis will provide stronger ascent along
with isentropic lift to produce widespread showers and some
thunderstorms across the southern half of the CWA this morning.
The better chance for thunderstorms will be this morning but
they will not be severe. A pulse elevated storm may provide
some isolated pea size hail this morning. The best MUCAPE of
200-500 J/KG will remain across the southern counties of the CWA
and will begin to shift southeast of the area this afternoon.

The H5 trough will move across eastern KS and extend south-southwest
into north TX. As the stronger ascent shifts east into MO, the
rain will become scattered showers by late afternoon from west
to east across the CWA. North winds will increase as the surface
low moves east along the OK/KS border. Most CAMs show the
scattered showers exiting the CWA during the early evening
hours.

Areas of Lyon, southern Osage, northern Coffee, northern
Anderson and southern Franklin have received 0.75" to 1.5 inches
of rainfall. SREF shows an additional inch of rainfall may fall
across the southeast counties this morning and through the
afternoon hours, which could bring total rainfall amounts over 2
inches in some locations. The I-70 corridor may see 0.75"-1.0"
of QPF. The northwest counties are projected to see the lowest
QPF of 0.2" to 0.5".

Tonight through Wednesday:

The eastern Pacific H5 trough will move onshore across the western
US Monday night. A down stream H5 ridge will amplify across the
southern and central Plains. Southwest flow across the central
Rockies will deepen a lee surface trough across eastern CO and
western KS. South-southwest surface winds will increase on
Tuesday afternoon to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30 to 40 MPH.
Highs will warm into the lower 60s on Sunday, mid to upper 60s
on Monday, and lower to mid 70s on Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday a lead southern stream H5 trough
will lift northeast across the central Rockies into SD/NE. At
this time the stronger ascent will stay north of the area but a
Pacific cold front will move east across northeast KS, switching
winds to the west. There may be a few isolated showers Tuesday
night ahead of the front.

Wednesday's highs will be a bit cooler as westerly winds
diminish through the afternoon hours but a slightly cooler and
much drier airmass will move east across the CWA. Highs will be
in the mid to upper 60s, with a few 70 degree readings across
the far southeast counties.

A more amplified H5 trough will move east into the western US
through the day Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Saturday:

The extended range models are in agreement with the broad upper
trough slowly translating east across the Plains on Friday. A
more amplified lead H5 trough will lift northeast across NE into
southern MN by 12Z FRI. As the more amplified H5 trough lifts
north of the area a cold front will move southeast across the
CWA on Thursday. Highs will be in the mid 50s northwest of the
front across north central KS. The southeast counties may reach
the mid 60s before FROPA occurs Thursday afternoon. Expect a dry
and cooler airmass to move southeast across the region to end
the week. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 40s to
mid 50s. As the broad H5 trough will move east across the
Plains, there may be enough ascent for isolated showers during
the day, and may be rain mixed with snow showers Friday night.
However, moisture will be lacking and only expect trace amounts
of precipitation.

The H5 trough will shift east of the Plains on Saturday and skies
should clear from west to east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Challenging forecast with rain departing, a brief period of VFR
possible at KMHK before possible fog formation as skies
scatter. Current thinking is that MVFR visibility and IFR CIGs
will hold following precipitation for a few hours this
afternoon. Some lifting of ceilings could the occur this evening
before visibilities drop late tonight with possible fog
formation. Fog will be most likely (40-60% chance less than 2
mi. visibility) where clouds scatter faster tonight. Timing of
hazards may need to be updated as trends are monitored.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM CST SAT Feb 14 2026

The previous Fire Weather discussion is right on target. Winds
Wednesday afternoon will be lighter from the west-southwest
during the afternoon hours but minimum RHs Wednesday afternoon
will be in the 15-20 percent range. Thursday, wind gusts
increase over 25 MPH during the afternoon hours with RHs in the
20 to 30 percent range.

While the immediate focus is on rainfall, partners should be
alerted to a rapidly evolving fire weather threat for Tuesday
through Thursday. The combination of unseasonably warm
temperatures, deep mixing, and strong south-southwest winds will
rapidly dry out fuels. Despite the wetting rains tonight and
tomorrow, the dormant vegetation will cure quickly, creating a
setup for elevated to critical fire conditions Tuesday through
Thursday of next week. Relative humidity falling into the
20-30% range and sustained wind of 20-30 mph with gusts
approaching 45 mph are possible Tuesday and Thursday afternoons.
While wind speeds may be slightly less on Wednesday, humidity
may be the lowest of the week, potentially less than 20%. If
the rain tonight/tomorrow underperforms, fire concerns will only
be magnified.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Teefey
FIRE WEATHER...Jones

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
940 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     Rain             3 NW Emporia            38.43N 96.22W
02/14/2026  M1.20 Inch       Lyon               KS   CO-OP Observer

            Event total as of 6am.

0700 AM     Rain             Gridley                 38.10N 95.88W
02/14/2026  M1.24 Inch       Coffey             KS   CO-OP Observer

            Event total as of 7am.

0706 AM     Rain             Burlington              38.19N 95.75W
02/14/2026  M1.25 Inch       Coffey             KS   Public

            CoCoRaHS report.

0700 AM     Rain             5 N Westphalia          38.26N 95.50W
02/14/2026  M1.23 Inch       Anderson           KS   CO-OP Observer

            Event total as of 7am.

&&