Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Topeka, KS

484 
WWUS83 KTOP 150100
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
800 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

KSZ008-020-034-150200-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260415T0100Z/
Republic-Cloud-Ottawa-
800 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
REPUBLIC, CLOUD, AND OTTAWA COUNTIES...

Winds have weakened and relative humidity values will continue to
improve. Thus, the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1242 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in north-central KS this afternoon and
  evening. A very high fire danger.

-Storms could impact far eastern KS Tuesday evening, bringing a
 threat for severe weather.

-Additional storm chances occur Wednesday and again Friday, with
 more uncertainty on timing/location.

-Cooler weather expected this weekend. Possible freeze and
 frost early Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery showed an
upper level trough extending from the Great Basin southwest into
southern CA. Broad southwesterly mid level flow of 40 to to 50
KTS was noted from the base of the Southwest US trough,
extending northeast across the Plains, then northeast across the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes States. A broad upper level ridge
was centered off the FL coast across the eastern Gulf.

At the surface, an area of low pressure was located across the
northeast NE. A warm front extended east northeast across southern
MN. A dryline extended west-southwest across eastern NE, to the far
western counties of the CWA, into western OK. Winds ahead of the
dryline were south-southwesterly at 15 to 25 MPH and gusts to 40
MPH. West of the dryline, winds veered more to the southwest and
dewpoints have dropped down into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

This afternoon and Tonight:

The dryline will move east to a Washington, to Clay center, to
Abilene line late this afternoon. Most CAM soundings do not
show much of cap but weak confluence along the dryline will not
be enough surface convergence to develop thunderstorms. The 3 KM
NAM is showing sfc based storms developing across north central
OK late this afternoon, which may develop northeastward during
the evening hours but most other CAMs do not show any
convection developing along the dryline across the CWA. If
isolated storms were able to develop ahead of the dryline they
would become severe with wind and hail as the primary hazard
given MLCAPES around 2000 J/kg and 35 KTS of effective shear.
The low level winds may be too veered for a tornado threat. but
the probability for storms is below 14 percent across much of
the eastern counties of the CWA. But I may place a 15 percent
chance in Anderson county in case the 3K NAM is accurate with
dryline storms building northeast up towards the southeast
counties. Later shifts may need to update this forecast.

Tonight, as the LLJ increases to 40 to 50 KTS across east central
KS, I cannot rule out a few elevated storms across portions of east
central KS but most of the CAMs do not show storms developing late
Tonight into early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday through Wednesday night:

The upper trough across the southwest US will fill as it lifts
northeast across the Plains Wednesday night.

Tuesday, the dryline will move east across the central part of the
CWA. There will not be as much QG forcing, since the H5 trough will
still be farther west across UT/AZ. The surface shows more
confluence along the dryline, so most of the area will remain
dry. Most CAMs develop surface based storms across northern
OK/south central KS and these storms may move northeast along
across east central KS. The primary hazards will be large hail
and damaging wind gusts but any discrete supercell may spawn a
few tornadoes. However, the low-level wind fields looks to be
veered, so the chances are much lower.

Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night will provide a better
chance for thunderstorms as the H5 trough shifts east into the
Plains. DCVA ahead of the trough axis will provide for stronger
ascent. At the surface a cold front will shift southeast into the
northern counties and dryline will push east across the southwest
counties. Thunderstorms will develop along the front and possibly
south along the dryline. Some of these storms may be severe with the
primary hazards being large hail and damaging wind gusts. Through the
evening hours a line of storms will congeal along the cold front,
and the threat will become isolated damaging wind gusts. The
front should push southeast of the CWA during the early morning
hours of Thursday.

Thursday through Thursday night:

Early Thursday, an upper level trough will move onshore across the
Pacific northwest and dig southeast into the Great Basin. We may see
a break from any thunderstorms as the Pacific front will push east
into western MO. Frontolysis will occur through the afternoon hours
and westerly winds will diminish and become southerly through
Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday:

The extended range models are in fair agreement. The GFS is a bit
more progressive and maybe more favorable for severe
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.The H5
trough across the Great Basin will dig east-southeast across
the central Rockies, then across the Plains Friday night into
Saturday Morning. A cold front will push southeast across the
northern High plains, then southeast across NE through the day.
A surface low and dryline across western KS will shift east.
Thunderstorms will develop across central KS through the
afternoon hour. If discrete thunderstorms develop within the
warm sector where there will be sufficient vertical wind shear
and instability for supercell thunderstorms. The hazards from
supercell thunderstorms would be large hail, damaging wind
gusts, and possibly a few tornadoes. It still remains uncertain
if these discrete supercells will remain south of the area
Friday afternoon. Though the slightly more progressive GFS
solution would provide a better chance for supercell
thunderstorms developing ahead of the cold front/dryline during
the afternoon hours before the storms congeal into a squall
line. The slower ECMWF solution shows most storms developing
ahead of the cold front during the mid and late evening hours.
If a line of storms develop the the primary hazard would be
isolated damaging wind gusts along the squall line. The cold
front will move southeast of the CWA during the morning hours of
Saturday and the rain and thunderstorms will shift east of the
area. We will see a cool down by the weekend with highs in the
mid 50s north to lower 60s south. Highs Sunday will be in the
lower to mid 60s. Low temperatures early Sunday morning may fall
below freezing across the northern counties of the CWA with mid
30s across much of the area. Therefore, a freeze warning and
frost of advisory may be needed Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

An H5 ridge will move towards the Plains next week, which will cause
temperatres to warm into the 70s on Monday and the 80s by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Strong winds and a chance for storms are the main aviation
hazards this period. South winds with gusts around 25 kts
persists tonight. A 55kt LLJ also develops, which could create
some LLWS despite gusty winds at the sfc. South-southwest winds
increase after sunrise. Chances for TS return during the
evening. Convection looks scattered, but most likely to impact
terminals after 00Z Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

While green up of vegetation is underway, a Red Flag Warning
will continue across north-central KS, where gusty winds and
low RH will combine to create extreme fire danger. Dew points
are forecast to drop this afternoon in this area as a dryline
moves east. Minimum RH behind the dryline could quickly fall to
around 20 percent. South-southwest winds will be sustained at 15
to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph throughout the
afternoon. Similar conditions will be in place behind the
dryline (mainly in central KS) on Tuesday, with minimum RH
between 20 and 25 percent and continued gusty south-southwest
winds. Fire headlines are not currently anticipated Tuesday.
However, at this time the Range Land Fire Index has only a very
high fire danger for north central KS. All Burning should be
postponed through midweek.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Teefey
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan/Teefey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
834 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-150145-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
834 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, north central Kansas, and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms ongoing over east central Kansas continue to
move steadily out of the area over the hour to two hours. No
further severe storms are expected overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance for severe thunderstorms Tuesday through
Wednesday night. Then again Friday and Friday night. The primary
threats will be hail and wind.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
802 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Hail             5 S Osage City          38.56N 95.84W
04/13/2026  M2.00 Inch       Osage              KS   Trained Spotter

&&

ST

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
808 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Ottawa              38.59N 95.27W
04/13/2026                   Franklin           KS   Public

            Reports of damage in southern Ottawa, on
            Main Street between 15th and 23rd, including
            wall and rood damage to a hotel, roof damage
            and wall down at a gas station, roof removed
            from Daylight Donuts and trees down. No
            power.

&&

ST

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
905 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     Tornado          Quenemo                 38.57N 95.53W
04/13/2026                   Osage              KS   Storm Chaser

            Delayed report. Storm chaser reported a
            tornado occurred just southwest of town. Was
            on the ground approximately two minutes and
            damaged a sheet metal shed.

&&

Flanagan

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
914 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Ottawa              38.59N 95.27W
04/13/2026                   Franklin           KS   Public

            Damage to the roof and a wall of the
            T-Mobile store on South Main Street in
            Ottawa.

&&

ST

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
934 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     Hail             1 N Ottawa              38.63N 95.27W
04/13/2026  M2.75 Inch       Franklin           KS   Public

&&

ST

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1132 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Hail             1 SSW Ottawa            38.60N 95.28W
04/13/2026  M2.00 Inch       Franklin           KS   Public

            Delayed report of 2 inch hail stones across
            the street from Ottawa High School. Photos
            sent via email.

&&

ST