Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Topeka, KS

932 
WWUS83 KTOP 140118
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
818 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

KSZ008-020-034-140230-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-260414T0200Z/
Republic-Cloud-Ottawa-
818 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY 
AND GUSTY WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

The National Weather Service in Topeka has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning.

Winds have begun to calm and relative humidity is increasing so
have canceled the Red Flag warning for the area.

$$

Drake

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1236 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain tapers off this afternoon. Very conditional risk
(10%) for a brief storm over central Kansas.

- Better thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly across
eastern Kansas. Any storms that do develop could be severe.

- Staying warm through Friday PM, when a stronger cold front
arrives. More thunderstorms possible along this front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Within the southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the main upper low, a
weak shortwave trough is currently lifting northeast over the
Ozarks. Light rain associated with this shortwave is beginning to
weaken in intensity and coverage, as the best forcing shifts off to
our east. Expecting to be mostly dry by early evening. In its wake,
we'll see synoptic scale subsidence across the area. Can't
completely rule out a storm (briefly capable of small hail and gusty
winds) developing along the dryline in central Kansas, but between
the clouds and subsidence not expecting anything to develop.

Forcing remains low tomorrow, with 500 mb heights staying generally
neutral as the main upper low stays well to our west. So despite
some weak dryline convergence, it seems unlikely any convection
develops during the PM hours, despite an unstable and moderately
sheared environment in place. Maintaining some 15% PoPs in far east-
central KS where the cap is weakest during the evening, but overall
expecting things to stay dry. Additionally, depending on how far
east the dryline mixes, we may see a few hours of very high fire
danger across parts of central Kansas. RH drops to around 20% behind
the dryline, with southwest winds gusting to around 25 mph.

Slightly better chances for storms begin Tuesday evening as we begin
to see some modest height falls ahead of the upper low. Exact
position of the dryline is somewhat uncertain, but may end up
somewhere near the Kansas Turnpike. With dewpoints increasing into
the 64-68 degree range ahead of the dryline, and steep mid-level
lapse rates, ML CAPE increases to around 3000 J/kg. Coupled with
effective shear of around 40-50 kts, any storm that develops across
east-central KS will be quite capable of becoming severe. However
there are still some questions with storm coverage, given the late
arriving forcing and lingering capping. If we do see
development, it would likely only be a few more scattered
storms across east-central KS. Similar to Monday, we could also
see some elevated fire concerns behind the dryline across parts
of central Kansas.

Details for Wednesday will be heavily dependent on the timing of the
main upper low as it lifts northeast, pushing a front through our
area. A faster timing will shunt the instability and thus the
thunderstorm risk off to our east, while a slower timing will keep
more of our area in the risk. Wherever the front does end up, do
have better confidence that thunderstorms do develop along it mid to
late afternoon, with mainly a wind/hail risk.

Shortwave ridging prevails for Thursday as another deep upper low
dives into the western US. This will keep the day dry, though still
warm for this time of year. A stronger cold front then approaches
late Friday evening as that next upper low approaches. Confidence is
low in details, but with increasing moisture and shear we'll have to
at least watch for thunderstorm potential as the cold front moves
through. Cooler temperatures then follow for the weekend, with highs
dropping into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Recent satellite trends are showing a batch of MVFR CIGS moving
into the area from the south. Am thinking the cloud deck will
stay SCT, so have kept VFR in the TAF for now. Amendments may be
needed for a few hours overnight. Otherwise, wind is the main
aviation hazard. A 45-50 kt LLJ is in place tonight. Sfc winds
will likely become gusty early this period, but did include
LLWS at KMHK until sfc winds increase more toward the early
morning hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Teefey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
148 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-131900-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
148 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low chance, less than 15 percent, for an isolated storm
to develop late this afternoon across central KS. If, however, a
storm develops, it could become severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a better chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be
possible.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf