Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Topeka, KS

628 
WGUS73 KTOP 200342
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1042 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSC013-200352-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-260920T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brown KS-
1042 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3991 9555 3991 9534 3965 9534 3965 9566
      3971 9566

$$

Reese

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
649 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered strong to severe storms are expected to develop along a
 front late this afternoon/early this evening.

-Shower/storm chances linger through the night, but the severe threat
 should largely diminish after dark.

-A dramatic temperature swing occurs between today and early in the
 upcoming workweek. Below average temperatures stick around through
 the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The main focus in the short-term is on thunderstorm chances from this
afternoon into tonight, and whether storms will reach severe
thresholds. At 18Z, a cold front was moving into north central KS. A
few agitated cu had grown tall enough to produce isolated, small
showers ahead of the boundary. SBCAPE has increased to 2000-3000 J/kg
ahead of the boundary and DCAPE is over 1000 J/kg, but deep layer
shear is less impressive at around 25 kts. This environment is
developing as expected and continues to indicate downburst wind
potential with any storms that form today. CAMs still do not show a
lot of agreement on timing and location of the more robust
convection, but thinking is that coverage of storms will increase
after 23Z with initiation likely occurring along a line extending
from near Sabetha to Manhattan to Herington. Initial updrafts could
congeal into clusters as the entire system progresses eastward across
the area this evening. Severe potential should begin to diminish in
the hours after sunset in far eastern KS as CIN increases. Most CAMs
then show another cluster of showers and storms moving into central
KS overnight in response to a shortwave ahead of a main wave aloft.
Models show those storms producing some gusty winds in central KS and
weakening with eastward extent.

Rain showers may linger into the early morning hours of Sunday with
chances decreasing after sunrise. The cold front should be south of
the area by midday tomorrow, so with low clouds and north winds,
temperatures will be noticeably cooler (following a six day stretch
of 90+ highs). Will maintain at least slight chance POPs in east-
central areas through the afternoon with rain possibly clipping the
area from the south near the stalled H85 boundary.

A cooler air mass fully settles into the area with a surface ridge
early next week. NBM has high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s
in far northern KS to the mid 70s near I-35 Monday afternoon in part
due to limited insolation from lingering cloud cover. Tuesday could
be the coolest day of the period with highs in the 60s nearly area-
wide (this is cooler than recent nighttime lows). Temperatures slowly
creep back up, but stay on the cool side of average through the
workweek. POPs return later in the week when longer range models show
the next shortwave aloft possibly impacting the region. Confidence
is not currently high on that possible round of wet weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

For the 00Z TAFs, expect the storms over central Kansas areas to
continue to steadily move ENE across the area. Expect strong damaging
winds to impact the terminals then as the front pushes into the area
winds change to the WNW then N into the overnight period. Expect this
initial round of storms to exit by 04-05Z. There may be another
round of storms that move east into the area, but are expected to
generally weaken. Time of arrival would be around 11Z over western
terminals and around 13Z over eastern terminals if any storms do hold
together.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
224 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-201930-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
224 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur late this
afternoon and this evening. Storms are likely to develop along a cold
front located east of a line from Marysville to Minneapolis after 5
PM. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard but small hail and
heavy rain could also occur. Storms should weaken into the nighttime
hours in eastern Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
746 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 WNW Pauline           38.99N 95.77W
09/19/2026  M64 MPH          Shawnee            KS   Mesonet

            Personal weather station measured 64 mph
            gust near Sherwood Lake in southwest Topeka.

&&

DR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
801 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Holton                  39.47N 95.74W
09/19/2026  M61 MPH          Jackson            KS   Mesonet

            Personal weather station measured 61 mph
            gust.

&&

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
806 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ010-011-200200-
Nemaha-Marshall-
806 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NEMAHA AND NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL
COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 805 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Seneca, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marysville, Sabetha, Seneca, Frankfort, Centralia, Axtell, Wetmore,
Beattie, Bern, Corning, Summerfield, Goff, Vermillion, Oneida, Oketo,
Baileyville, Lillis, and Woodlawn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9581 3957 9630 4000 9681 4000 9580
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 229DEG 26KT 3979 9609

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
812 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ012-200145-
Brown-
812 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BROWN COUNTY THROUGH 845 PM
CDT...

At 812 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Fairview, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hiawatha, Sabetha, Horton, Everest, Fairview, Robinson, Morrill,
Powhattan, Hamlin, Willis, and Kickapoo Reservation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 9534 3965 9534 3965 9579 4000 9579
      4000 9563
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 204DEG 19KT 3982 9569

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
817 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ054-200145-
Lyon-
817 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LYON COUNTY THROUGH 845
PM CDT...

At 817 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Emporia, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Americus, Neosho Rapids, and Reading.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 128 and 143.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 117 and 140.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3853 9635 3860 9595 3833 9595 3830 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 256DEG 32KT 3840 9632

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
818 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WNW Meriden           39.19N 95.59W
09/19/2026                   Jefferson          KS   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down at 82nd and Sherman Roads. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

DR