Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Topeka, KS

799 
WGUS73 KTOP 042205
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
505 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

KSC177-197-042215-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-260705T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Shawnee KS-Wabaunsee KS-
505 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHAWNEE AND 
CENTRAL WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3895 9650 3902 9604 3902 9581 3887 9581
      3887 9582 3887 9585 3887 9587 3887 9588
      3887 9592 3887 9595 3885 9650

$$

Jones

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
157 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms may redevelop late this afternoon and early evening.
  Areas south of I-70 have the higher chances of seeing storms.

- If storms form, there is a risk for damaging winds and hail. Be
  ready to move indoors if a thunderstorm threatens your location.

- A slight cool down and lower humidity is expected as we begin the
  new week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

19Z water vapor imagery showed an MCV moving into MO but profiler
data across eastern NEB with veering 500MB winds hinted at a second
perturbation moving along the MO river valley too. A low amplitude
wave was noted across the northern plains. At the surface, convection
from earlier today caused a meso-high to set up across northeast KS
with the effective surface front/inverted trough axis shunted south
over northern OK.

For this evening the big picture is for redevelopment to be mainly
across southern KS where an 850MB boundary is progged to be. This
looks to be between KTWX and KICT right now. But there is also the
development along a wind shift coming out of north central KS. I
would expect this convection to only reinforce the meso-high and
keep the synoptic boundary south of the forecast area. But the
predictability in this weakly forced environment is poor as evident
by the CAMs performance and forecast confidence remains low. With
this in mind have continued with some chances for elevated showers
and storms to reform. The forecast has chances for redevelopment
along I-70 in the 30 to 50 percent range. Areas along and south of
Ottawa to Council Grove have a better chance in the 55 to 75 percent
range due to a closer proximity to the 850MB boundary. If storms
develop, the RAP/NAM still prog steep mid level lapse rates with 30KT
to 40KT of bulk shear. Discrete storms may have some supercell
characteristics with the potential for large hail and damaging winds.
But weak storm motion is expected to favor storm mergers and and
eventual evolution into an MCS with a transition to damaging winds
and rain. If the latest models are right, this transition may be as
the storms are moving through southern KS. For areas along and north
of I-70, it looks like there is a high chance for dry weather this
evening.

Not a lot of changes to the forecast after tonight. There are
indications of some weak vort maximum moving through the MO river
valley Sunday afternoon. But most of the solutions are keeping any
pop up showers east of the area. So have dry forecast with precip
chances around 10 percent for northeast and east central KS. The
early part of the work week should see mid-level height rises
locally over the forecast area. This is progged to favor weak
subsidence and dry weather for Monday and into Wednesday as temps
remain seasonal. This pattern breaks down by the end of the week
with a more zonal flow and weak perturbations possible. So chances
for precip return to the forecast for Wednesday night through
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Low confidence forecast as models continue to struggle in this
weakly forced environment. Overall think this morning's convection
and meso-high should limit precip chances this afternoon with the
bulk of guidance showing redevelopment this evening south of the
terminals along an 850MB boundary. This fits with the current
analysis, but then there are the storms over central KS. So the
overall prob looks to be around 30 percent through 02Z and since
predictability of storms is low, will keep a dry forecast and amend
as needed. VFR conditions should prevail outside of any convection
that may develop.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ026-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
203 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-051915-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
203 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central,
north central, and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms remain possible into this evening for areas along
and south of Interstate 70. Any storms that develop may be capable
of damaging winds and hail. Areas along and south of a line from
Ottawa to Council Grove have the better chance of seeing storms.
The forecast is for much of this activity to be pushing south of
the area by around 10 pm tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any severe weather to the National Weather
Service in Topeka, KS.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Wolters

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1043 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 WSW Olpe              38.25N 96.21W
07/04/2026  E60 MPH          Lyon               KS   Trained Spotter

            Small tree branches down with strong wind
            gust.

&&

ST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1103 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

KSZ059-041700-
Anderson-
1103 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ANDERSON COUNTY THROUGH NOON
CDT...

At 1102 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles south of Waverly to 4 miles west of Le
Roy. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Garnett, Colony, Greeley, Westphalia, Kincaid, Lone Elm, and Harris.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9551 3836 9507 3804 9508 3804 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1602Z 277DEG 40KT 3832 9557 3808 9571

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Hartford                38.31N 95.96W
07/04/2026                   Lyon               KS   Public

            Reports from the Lyon County Fire District 5
            Facebook page, confirmed by the county
            Emergency Manager, of roof partially removed
            and windows broken at City Hall. Numerous
            trees and tree branches down throughout
            Hartford.

&&

ST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
105 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

KSZ037-038-041830-
Wabaunsee-Morris-
105 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MORRIS AND
SOUTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM CDT...

At 105 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Parkerville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor
         objects and vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
White City, Alta Vista, Dwight, and Parkerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3871 9674 3885 9672 3887 9663 3887 9650
      3890 9650 3894 9634 3874 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 256DEG 37KT 3879 9664

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Jones