Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Topeka, KS

783 
WGUS73 KTOP 210937
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
437 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

KSC027-029-061-143-149-161-210947-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-260621T0945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clay KS-Cloud KS-Geary KS-Ottawa KS-Pottawatomie KS-Riley KS-
437 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 445 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR NORTHWESTERN GEARY, CLAY, SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD, NORTHEASTERN 
OTTAWA, SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHWESTERN RILEY COUNTIES...

Flash Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please 
continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT Sunday for portions 
of central and east central Kansas.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT Sunday for portions 
of east central, north central, and northeast Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3939 9748 3943 9696 3946 9651 3921 9651
      3914 9657 3913 9696 3913 9698 3913 9701
      3913 9708 3913 9719 3913 9721 3913 9722
      3913 9723 3913 9731 3913 9737 3913 9748

$$

Gargan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1224 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances increase this evening, then become likely
overnight into Sunday morning (60-90%). Heavy rainfall with flooding
and severe storms with damaging winds are the primary concerns,
although hail to quarter size and a brief tornado cannot be ruled
out.

- Storms may linger in east central KS Sunday late morning and
afternoon (20-50% chance).

- Temperatures stay a bit cooler than average through next week
alongside periodic storm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Surface low pressure has been deepening in eastern CO in response to
an upper trough traversing out of the Great Basin and Intermountain
West region. The surface warm front has started to slowly lift north
through the CWA this morning, likely placed along or just south of
the I-70 corridor based on 19z observations and visible satellite.
Meanwhile, a subtle perturbation rounding the low-amplitude ridge
overhead has helped to trigger elevated supercells in central
Nebraska, which have been following the MUCAPE gradient this morning
into the early afternoon. This trajectory would favor these storms
staying just north of the KS/NE border through the afternoon, which
is what more recent HRRR runs have shown as well.

Our main focus remains on this evening and overnight, and we should
stay quiet until then assuming the above scenario pans out.
Shortwave energy from the aforementioned upper trough looks to eject
across the High Plains this evening and eventually across the MO
River Valley by Sunday morning. This feature will lead to the
development of storms in western KS this evening that will
eventually evolve into an MCS. There is still a bit of uncertainty
in whether any discrete storms can develop along the warm front
earlier this evening (around 02-03z) ahead of the MCS, which looks
to move into our area closer to midnight. If these discrete cells
can develop, this would present more of a threat for hail or
tornadoes than anything later on, as sfc winds are more backed at
this time. They become more veered with the approach of the MCS. All
the while, the strengthening LLJ this evening will continue to pump
in more moisture and provide the lift needed to maintain a severe
weather risk as storms enter north central KS. Damaging winds are
the main severe hazard with a lower risk for hail or a brief spin-up
tornado. Flooding is the other primary concern with storms
overnight. In addition to the MCS coming from western KS, CAMs have
shown more rounds of rainfall with clusters and lines of storms
coming southeastward out of Nebraska. This setup could lead to some
locations getting hit by repeated rounds of heavy rainfall if they
go over the same places again and again. While it is uncertain
exactly where this might happen and where the highest amounts could
be as a result, several CAM solutions show pockets of 3-6" through
Sunday morning. The HREF has a subtle signal for intense rainfall
rates, and more specifically, the HRRR has been indicating 2-3"/hr
rainfall rates may be possible in localized areas. Overall, most
locations can expect to see 1-3", but some will probably see those
locally higher amounts mentioned, which presents a concern for flash
flooding and river flooding. Have made no changes to the going Flood
Watch.

Some of the storms and heavy rain may linger into mid/late morning
in east central KS before it eventually moves out and subsidence
takes over behind the upper wave. From there, the chance of any
redeveloping storms in the afternoon and evening will be highly
dependent on the location of any outflow boundary the morning
convection lays out. That or the synoptic cold front could be the
focus for afternoon storms by that point. Current CAMs have this
activity mainly along and south of I-35 before it pushes south later
in the evening. If storms develop before the boundary moves south,
they could have large hail or damaging winds with them.

Getting into the next work week, our area finds itself in a
northwest flow pattern aloft with ridging parked over the
southwestern US. Embedded perturbations rounding the ridge bring
more chances for storms at times through the next week, but
predictability of the timing and placement of these waves tends to
be lower at this range, so PoPs are generally below 50% at any
particular time period. Temperatures look to hold slightly cooler
than average through the week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Showers and storms continue to steadily work from west to east during
the overnight into early morning period. Generally, lightning should
trend down as storms move through with VCSH through roughly mid
morning as skies slowly lift and scatter. Look for winds veer to the
NNW as a weak frontal boundary pushes southeast across the area into
midday and early afternoon. Wouldn't completely rule out a few
isolated showers or a storm into the afternoon with residual moisture
behind the boundary.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-
KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040.
Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-
KSZ059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
252 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-212000-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
252 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, north central Kansas, and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely late tonight, especially through the
overnight hours. Primary hazards are damaging winds and heavy
rainfall leading to flooding, although large hail and a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Severe storms may continue into Sunday morning across east central
KS, along with the potential for heavy rainfall. A few additional
storms may redevelop Sunday afternoon and evening along and south
of Interstate 35.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1033 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

KSZ011-012-210400-
Brown-Nemaha-
1033 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL NEMAHA AND CENTRAL
BROWN COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM CDT...

At 1033 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fairview, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Strong wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hiawatha, Sabetha, Horton, Fairview, Robinson, Morrill, Powhattan,
Hamlin, Willis, and Kickapoo Reservation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3998 9572 3983 9537 3965 9553 3965 9562
      3979 9587
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 304DEG 26KT 3984 9573

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Prieto

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1045 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

KSZ009-021-210415-
Clay-Washington-
1045 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM CDT...

At 1045 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Linn, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Strong wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Clifton, Linn, Greenleaf, Barnes, Morrowville, and
Palmer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
north central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3974 9681 3971 9681 3957 9691 3957 9696
      3952 9696 3955 9728 3989 9729
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 286DEG 23KT 3969 9714

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Prieto

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1057 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

KSZ012-210430-
Brown-
1057 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN BROWN COUNTY THROUGH
1130 PM CDT...

At 1057 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hiawatha, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Strong wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hiawatha, Everest, Robinson, Powhattan, Hamlin, and Willis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3990 9534 3965 9534 3965 9536 3975 9568
      3993 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 0357Z 283DEG 22KT 3983 9558

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Prieto

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1234 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

KSZ021>024-035-036-038-039-210615-
Wabaunsee-Geary-Shawnee-Clay-Pottawatomie-Dickinson-Riley-Jackson-
1234 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN DICKINSON...GEARY...
RILEY...NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE...NORTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE...
POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES
THROUGH 115 AM CDT...

At 1233 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles north of Louisville
to Ogden to 5 miles north of Moonlight. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Strong wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Junction City, Wamego, Westmoreland, St. Marys, Ogden,
Grandview Plaza, Wakefield, Riley, St. George, Milford, Leonardville,
McFarland, Belvue, Emmett, Louisville, Delia, Milford Lake, Keats,
and Tuttle Creek Lake.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 287 and 331.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
central, north central, northeastern and east central Kansas. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3930 9575 3903 9629 3890 9686 3914 9728
      3935 9694 3949 9631
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 285DEG 24KT 3932 9633 3912 9672 3907 9714

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Prieto