Snow Squall Warning 4, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
429 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day of widespread snow, including snow squalls and
  strong winds.

- Turning drier and warm during the work week.

- Several days of strong winds possible over North Central MT next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 425 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:
An atmospheric river of precipitation continues to affect our CWA
this morning. This river of precipitation goes from the state of
WA to IL this morning. Central MT is right under the direct path
of this river of precipitation. A cold front is now moving
southward through Southern Alberta. This cold front will push this
river of precipitation southward today, then eventually eastward
tonight, ending the precipitation.

Expect widespread snow over Central and North Central MT today.
The only change to the winter statements was to add Hill/Blaine
counties as precipitation over spreads this area later this
morning. Additionally, as the cold front move southward from
Canada, expect gusty north winds to develop behind the front. This
will also create areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility.
There is also the potential a portion of the winter statements
might need to be extended until Midnight between Great Falls and
Lewistown, as the snow will be slow to end this evening.

Over Southwest MT, it will be mild to start. Mid level winds are
progged to mix down as the cold front move southeast through
Southwest MT later this morning/afternoon. Some wind gusts will
approach 60 mph, thus the high wind warning will continue. An
isolated lightning strike is also possible as the front moves
through. Overall this will be a short high wind event, with most
of the higher gusts at ridge tops. However, some higher gusts will
also occur in the valleys. There is the potential that this high
wind warning might be able to be cancelled a few hours early this
evening.

Additionally, snow showers/snow squalls will be possible over
Southwest MT as the front moves through. The highest probability
of snow squalls is east of a line from Dillon to Bozeman late this
morning and into the afternoon hours.

After today, expect a warming trend for all of next week, with
afternoon temperatures approaching record highs for several days
next week. However, strong winds are also possible numerous days
next week over North Central, possibly as early as Monday night
along the Rocky Mountain Front and in the Cut Bank area. High wind
statements could be issued as early as later today or tomorrow for
portions of North Central MT.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
There is nearly an 80 percent chance or higher of strong winds
along the Rocky Mountain Front and in the Cut Bank area daily from
Monday through Friday. Wind gusts over 75 mph have at least of 75
percent chance as well during this same period. Thus high wind
statements are likely for much of next week.

There is at least a 60 percent chance or higher of afternoon
temperatures breaking records Thu, Fri, and Sat of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
14/12z TAF Period

Widespread light snow will affect Central MT through about 6z Sun
before decreasing. Some blowing snow could impact terminals later
this morning/through this afternoon. Over Southwest MT, expect a
frontal passage, mostly during the afternoon hours. Rain/snow or
an isolated thunderstorm will accompany the frontal passage. A few
strong wind gusts are also possible. Overall, expect decreasing
clouds and lighter winds after 6z Sun. Mountains/passes will be
obscured across the CWA through at least 6z Sun. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  27   8  30  16 / 100  80   0  20
CTB  25  -2  26  12 /  90  20   0  10
HLN  32  12  35  24 / 100  80  10  40
BZN  48  13  35  21 /  80  70  10  40
WYS  43   5  30  15 /  70  40  10  40
DLN  47  17  37  26 /  70  40   0  10
HVR  30   5  26  10 / 100  50   0   0
LWT  26   4  26  10 / 100  80  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Big Belt,
Bridger and Castle Mountains-Cascade County below 5000ft-East
Glacier Park Region-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Elkhorn
and Boulder Mountains-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gates of the
Mountains-Helena Valley-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-
Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Meagher County Valleys-
Northern High Plains-Northwest Beaverhead County-Snowy and
Judith Mountains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain
Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Bears
Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Eastern Glacier, Western
Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Hill County-
Northern Blaine County-Western and Central Chouteau County.

High Wind Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Big Belt, Bridger
and Castle Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area-Elkhorn and Boulder
Mountains-Gallatin Valley-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains
and Centennial Mountains-Madison River Valley-Missouri
Headwaters-Northwest Beaverhead County-Ruby Mountains and
Southern Beaverhead Mountains.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1126 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 AM     Snow             5 NE Hilger             47.31N 109.28W
03/14/2026  M13.0 Inch       Fergus             MT   Trained Spotter

            Spotter reported 13 inches of snow.

&&

ACW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1140 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 AM     Snow             7 SSE Ulm               47.33N 111.48W
03/14/2026  M7.0 Inch        Cascade            MT   Trained Spotter

            7 inches snow total accumulations.

&&

ACW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1204 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     Snow             2 SE Black Eagle        47.51N 111.25W
03/14/2026  M6.5 Inch        Cascade            MT   NWS Employee

            Storm total so far. Snowing at the time of
            observation.

&&

JTG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1208 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     Snow             1 E East Helena         46.59N 111.89W
03/14/2026  M3.0 Inch        Lewis and Clark    MT   Trained Spotter

&&

JTG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1245 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     Snow             4 SSE Bynum             47.93N 112.29W
03/14/2026  M15.0 Inch       Teton              MT   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station BYNM8 Bynum 4 SSE.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1246 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     Snow             2 SE Lewistown          47.04N 109.39W
03/14/2026  M20.0 Inch       Fergus             MT   Trained Spotter

&&

JTG