High Wind Watch 21, NWS Great Falls, MT

692 
WWUS75 KTFX 121847
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1247 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

MTZ323>330-131000-
/O.NEW.KTFX.HW.A.0022.260513T1800Z-260514T0300Z/
Canyon Ferry Area-Missouri Headwaters-Madison River Valley-
Gallatin Valley-Northwest Beaverhead County-Beaverhead and
Western Madison below 6000ft-Ruby Mountains and Southern
Beaverhead Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and
Centennial Mountains-
Including the following locations: Three Forks, Chief Joseph
Pass, McAllister, Willow Creek, Big Hole Pass, Toston, Winston,
Townsend, West Yellowstone, Glen, Dewey, Dillon, Harrison,
Whitehall, Gallatin Gateway, Big Sky, Bozeman, Waterloo, Norris,
Bannack, Pony, Targhee Pass, Monida Pass, Cameron, Wisdom,
Jeffers, Raynolds Pass, Wise River, and Ennis
1247 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Southwestern Montana along and south of Interstate 90, and 
  Canyon Ferry Area.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wednesday afternoon there will also be 
  isolated thunderstorms in these areas that will bring wind gusts 
  in excess of 60 mph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.

Remember, a High Wind Watch means that there is at least a 50% 
chance of 40 mph sustained winds or 58 mph wind gusts occurring 
during the watch period.

&&

$$

MTZ301>303-307-308-315-131000-
/O.EXT.KTFX.HW.A.0021.260514T0000Z-260515T0600Z/
East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains-Eastern Glacier,
Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-
Southern High Plains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass-
Including the following locations: Flesher Pass, MacDonald Pass,
Kiowa, Lincoln, Marias Pass, Bynum, Cut Bank, Marysville, Logan
Pass, Dupuyer, Babb, Rogers Pass, Heart Butte, Santa Rita,
Browning, Choteau, Ethridge, Saint Mary, East Glacier Park, and
Pendroy
1247 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH 
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 75 mph possible 
  along the immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front, 
  with gusts up to 65 mph by Cut Bank and MacDonald Pass.

* WHERE...The Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent foothills and 
  plains, Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera 
  Counties, and Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause isolated power outages. Travel could be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.


&&

$$

MTZ304-312-313-319-131000-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.A.0021.260514T0600Z-260515T0000Z/
Eastern Toole and Liberty-Cascade County below 5000ft-Judith
Basin County and Judith Gap-Helena Valley-
Including the following locations: Galata, Chester, Helena,
Lothair, Benchland, Moccasin, Shelby, Great Falls, Stanford,
Raynesford, Devon, Hobson, Joplin, Windham, Geyser, and Whitlash
1247 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible.

* WHERE...Eastern Toole and Liberty Counties, Cascade County below 
  5000ft, Judith Basin County and Judith Gap, and Helena Valley.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause isolated power outages. Travel could be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.

&&

$$

MTZ305-306-310-311-314-318-131000-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.A.0021.260514T0900Z-260515T0600Z/
Hill County-Northern Blaine County-Western and Central Chouteau
County-Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Fergus County
below 4500ft-Snowy and Judith Mountains-
Including the following locations: Rocky Boy, Lewistown, Carter,
Chinook, Zurich, Havre, Fort Belknap, Hilger, Hogeland, Floweree,
Harlem, and Fort Benton
1247 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph possible.

* WHERE...Snowy and Judith Mountains, Bears Paw Mountains and 
  Southern Blaine, Fergus County below 4500ft, Hill County, Northern 
  Blaine County, and Western and Central Chouteau County.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause isolated power outages. Travel could be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.

&&

$$

IG

775 
WWUS75 KTFX 130548
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1148 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

MTZ323>330-132315-
/O.UPG.KTFX.HW.A.0022.260513T1800Z-260514T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.HW.W.0024.260513T1800Z-260514T0300Z/
Canyon Ferry Area-Missouri Headwaters-Madison River Valley-
Gallatin Valley-Northwest Beaverhead County-Beaverhead and
Western Madison below 6000ft-Ruby Mountains and Southern
Beaverhead Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and
Centennial Mountains-
Including the following locations: Bozeman, Cameron, Wisdom,
Harrison, Gallatin Gateway, Norris, Townsend, Dillon, Chief
Joseph Pass, Wise River, Ennis, Jeffers, Monida Pass, Glen, West
Yellowstone, Winston, McAllister, Bannack, Targhee Pass, Dewey,
Whitehall, Big Sky, Pony, Waterloo, Big Hole Pass, Willow Creek,
Raynolds Pass, Three Forks, and Toston
1148 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwesterly winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 
  60 mph possible.

* WHERE...Southwestern Montana along and south of Interstate 90, and 
  Canyon Ferry Area.

* WHEN...From noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will also be widely scattered showers 
  and thunderstorms capable of producing localized wind gusts 
  between 60 and 80 mph Wednesday afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

MTZ301>303-307-308-315-132315-
/O.UPG.KTFX.HW.A.0021.260514T0000Z-260515T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.HW.W.0024.260514T0000Z-260515T0600Z/
East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains-Eastern Glacier,
Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-
Southern High Plains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass-
Including the following locations: Logan Pass, MacDonald Pass,
Choteau, Dupuyer, Santa Rita, Pendroy, Bynum, Rogers Pass, Kiowa,
East Glacier Park, Ethridge, Flesher Pass, Marias Pass, Cut Bank,
Heart Butte, Marysville, Babb, Saint Mary, Browning, and Lincoln
1148 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT 
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Westerly winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 90 mph 
  possible along the Rocky Mountain Front, with gusts up to 75 mph 
  elsewhere.

* WHERE...The Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent foothills and 
  plains, Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera 
  Counties, and Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Wednesday to midnight MDT Thursday Night.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult to dangerous, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

MTZ304-312-313-132315-
/O.UPG.KTFX.HW.A.0021.260514T0600Z-260515T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.HW.W.0024.260514T0600Z-260515T0000Z/
Eastern Toole and Liberty-Cascade County below 5000ft-Judith
Basin County and Judith Gap-
Including the following locations: Galata, Raynesford, Chester,
Shelby, Great Falls, Devon, Geyser, Joplin, Whitlash, Windham,
Benchland, Lothair, Stanford, Hobson, and Moccasin
1148 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM 
MDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Westerly winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Toole and Liberty Counties, Cascade County below 
  5000ft, and Judith Basin County and Judith Gap.

* WHEN...From midnight Wednesday Night to 6 PM MDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause isolated power outages. Travel could be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

MTZ305-306-310-311-314-318-132315-
/O.UPG.KTFX.HW.A.0021.260514T0900Z-260515T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.HW.W.0024.260514T0900Z-260515T0600Z/
Hill County-Northern Blaine County-Western and Central Chouteau
County-Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Fergus County
below 4500ft-Snowy and Judith Mountains-
Including the following locations: Fort Benton, Hilger,
Lewistown, Rocky Boy, Chinook, Fort Belknap, Harlem, Carter,
Havre, Zurich, Hogeland, and Floweree
1148 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT 
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Westerly winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Snowy and Judith Mountains, Bears Paw Mountains and 
  Southern Blaine, Fergus County below 4500ft, Hill County, Northern 
  Blaine County, and Western and Central Chouteau County.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday Night.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause isolated power outages. Travel could be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

MTZ320-132315-
/O.NEW.KTFX.HW.W.0024.260513T1800Z-260514T0300Z/
Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-
Including the following locations: Maudlow, Battle Ridge Pass,
Deep Creek Pass, Bozeman Pass, and Trident
1148 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains.

* WHEN...From noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause isolated power outages. Travel could be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will also be widely scattered showers 
  and thunderstorms capable of producing localized wind gusts 
  between 60 and 80 mph Wednesday afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

MTZ309-132315-
/O.NEW.KTFX.HW.W.0024.260514T0600Z-260515T0000Z/
Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-
Including the following locations: Conrad, Brady, and Ledger
1148 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM 
MDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Westerly winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight Wednesday Night to 6 PM MDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause isolated power outages. Travel could be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

MTZ319-132315-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.A.0021.260514T0600Z-260515T0000Z/
Helena Valley-
Including the following locations: Helena
1148 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Westerly winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Helena Valley.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause isolated power outages. Travel could be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.

&&

$$

RG

140 
WWUS75 KTFX 131838
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1238 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

MTZ319-141230-
/O.UPG.KTFX.HW.A.0021.260514T0600Z-260515T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KTFX.HW.W.0024.260514T0600Z-260515T0000Z/
Helena Valley-
Including the following locations: Helena
1238 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT 
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Helena Valley.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing dust may create locally 
  reduced visibility Thursday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

Remember, a High Wind Warning means that there is at least an 80% 
chance of 40 mph sustained winds or 58 mph wind gusts occurring 
during the warning period.

&&

$$

MTZ316-141230-
/O.EXA.KTFX.HW.W.0024.260514T0600Z-260515T0000Z/
Gates of the Mountains-
Including the following locations: Canyon Creek, Wolf Creek, and
Craig
1238 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT 
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Gates of the Mountains.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing dust may create locally 
  reduced visibility Thursday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

Remember, a High Wind Warning means that there is at least an 80% 
chance of 40 mph sustained winds or 58 mph wind gusts occurring 
during the warning period.

&&

$$

MTZ320-323>330-140300-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-260514T0300Z/
Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area-Missouri
Headwaters-Madison River Valley-Gallatin Valley-Northwest
Beaverhead County-Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-
Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains-Gallatin and
Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-
Including the following locations: Dillon, Toston, Wise River,
Pony, Jeffers, Harrison, Chief Joseph Pass, Big Sky, Winston,
Waterloo, Dewey, Glen, Norris, Bozeman Pass, Three Forks, Wisdom,
Bozeman, Willow Creek, Battle Ridge Pass, Trident, Ennis,
Maudlow, Deep Creek Pass, Monida Pass, McAllister, Raynolds Pass,
Bannack, Whitehall, Cameron, Gallatin Gateway, West Yellowstone,
Big Hole Pass, Townsend, and Targhee Pass
1238 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Southwestern Montana along and south of Interstate 90, Big 
  Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains, and Canyon Ferry Area.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing dust may create locally 
  reduced visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

Remember, a High Wind Warning means that there is at least an 80% 
chance of 40 mph sustained winds or 58 mph wind gusts occurring 
during the warning period.

&&

$$

MTZ301>303-307-308-315-141230-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0024.260514T0000Z-260515T0600Z/
East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains-Eastern Glacier,
Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-
Southern High Plains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass-
Including the following locations: Kiowa, Marysville, Cut Bank,
Santa Rita, Pendroy, Rogers Pass, Heart Butte, Flesher Pass,
Ethridge, East Glacier Park, Saint Mary, Bynum, Lincoln, Dupuyer,
Babb, Choteau, Logan Pass, Marias Pass, MacDonald Pass, and
Browning
1238 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 
MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 55 mph with gusts up to 80 mph expected.

* WHERE...The Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent foothills and 
  plains, Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera 
  Counties, and Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to midnight MDT Thursday Night.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

Remember, a High Wind Warning means that there is at least an 80% 
chance of 40 mph sustained winds or 58 mph wind gusts occurring 
during the warning period.

&&

$$

MTZ304-309-312-313-141230-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0024.260514T0600Z-260515T0000Z/
Eastern Toole and Liberty-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-
Cascade County below 5000ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-
Including the following locations: Great Falls, Benchland,
Windham, Lothair, Raynesford, Devon, Joplin, Whitlash, Shelby,
Brady, Conrad, Geyser, Chester, Stanford, Hobson, Ledger,
Moccasin, and Galata
1238 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM 
MDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Toole and Liberty Counties, Eastern Pondera and 
  Eastern Teton Counties, Cascade County below 5000ft, and Judith 
  Basin County and Judith Gap.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing dust may create locally 
  reduced visibility Thursday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

Remember, a High Wind Warning means that there is at least an 80% 
chance of 40 mph sustained winds or 58 mph wind gusts occurring 
during the warning period.

&&

$$

MTZ305-306-310-311-314-318-141230-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0024.260514T0900Z-260515T0600Z/
Hill County-Northern Blaine County-Western and Central Chouteau
County-Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Fergus County
below 4500ft-Snowy and Judith Mountains-
Including the following locations: Fort Belknap, Chinook, Fort
Benton, Hogeland, Rocky Boy, Zurich, Harlem, Lewistown, Havre,
Floweree, Carter, and Hilger
1238 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 
MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph expected.

* WHERE...Snowy and Judith Mountains, Bears Paw Mountains and 
  Southern Blaine, Fergus County below 4500ft, Hill County, Northern 
  Blaine County, and Western and Central Chouteau County.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday Night.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

Remember, a High Wind Warning means that there is at least an 80% 
chance of 40 mph sustained winds or 58 mph wind gusts occurring 
during the warning period.

&&

$$

Hoenisch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
538 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Breezy through the early evening, particularly across North-
   central Montana.

 - After a benign day Tuesday, the overall pattern becomes active
   again beginning Wednesday. Hot temperatures, showers and
   thunderstorms, along with gusty winds will all be a concern
   Wednesday.

 - Additional stretches of breezy winds and precipitation after
   Wednesday, with Thursday looking the most likely day for the
   strongest winds.
 &&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

Through Tuesday night:

Upper level ridging is in its initial stage of building in across
the western US this afternoon. A lingering shortwave quickly exiting
eastward ahead of the building ridge is resulting in cumulus fields
so far this afternoon across the Hi-Line and near the Idaho border.
Latest RAP mesoanalysis and forecast shows a few hundred J/Kg
instability in these areas through the afternoon and early evening.
Isolated showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms seems reasonable
through the remainder of the afternoon. Given the already
synoptically gusty conditions across North-central Montana, and
forecast soundings near West Yellowstone featuring modestly deep
inverted-V profiles, gusty winds would be the primary concern with
any thunderstorms in both of these areas through the evening.

Ridging continues Tuesday and Tuesday night, allowing for a largely
benign day across the region. A few high resolution guidance members
develop a few terrain based showers across SW MT Tuesday afternoon,
but they seem to be the outlier at this time.

Wednesday into Thursday:

An active stretch of weather begins Wednesday. A potent upper level
low cuts through the upper ridging through the day Wednesday across
the Pacific Northwest and eventually the Northern Rockies. Ahead of
this upper low, southerly to southwesterly winds develop across the
region, which will result in warm air advection across the region.
Temperatures look to peak across the forecast area Wednesday, mainly
in the upper 80s or lower 90s. While the hot temperatures are
certainly notable, as they look to be approaching record levels for
the date, the primary concern Wednesday will be for the combination
of dry and gusty conditions resulting in some localized fire weather
concerns (See Fire Weather Section for more details) in addition to
scattered showers and thunderstorms bringing potential for strong
and erratic winds gusts.

Concern then transitions to strong westerly flow aloft developing
along side and behind the passage of the upper level low Wednesday
evening and overnight. This flow begins to be translated to the
surface near the Rocky Mountain Front Wednesday night before
spreading elsewhere through the day Thursday as daytime mixing
ensues. There has been quite a bit of run to run model guidance
volatility on the overall strength of winds for Thursday, though it
should be noted that the latest trend has been toward stronger
winds.

Snow levels look to fall sufficiently low enough to result in some
mountain snow by Thursday morning. While some light pass level
snowfall cannot be ruled out, it would be difficult to see a
scenario where this snow would be able to accumulate on any roads
given warm temperatures preceding the snow.

Friday into the weekend:

An additional quick moving shortwave moves in from the Eastern
Pacific Ocean and Pacific Northwest Friday. Details at this range
for this system are murky, but another stretch of breezy to gusty
winds along with another opportunity for precipitation will
accompany this system Friday into Saturday.

Active weather looks to persist into at least Sunday, evident by
cluster guidance showing high confidence for troughing across the
west. That said, individual cluster members paint different pictures
as to timing and strength of troughing. The main takeaway will be
for cooler temperatures and opportunities for precipitation. -AM

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Wednesday Thunderstorm Risk:

Wednesday will be an intriguing day for several reasons, but I will
keep this discussion to thunderstorm potential.

A belt of stronger southwesterly winds aloft looks to arrive through
the day Wednesday ahead of the upper level low moving east from the
Pacific Northwest. Daytime mixing will result in these stronger
winds mixing to the surface, resulting in a synoptically gusty
(Perhaps strong gusts in SW MT) day across much of the region.
Forcing for ascent will overspread the region in the afternoon as
the upper low continues its approach. Sufficient instability looks
to be in place to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening. The already synoptically gusty
conditions along with very deep inverted-V soundings will result in
the risk for isolated pockets of very strong outflow gusts in areas
where the strongest thunderstorms form.

Mitigating factors in this setup that would ultimately hinder the
risk for strong thunderstorm gusts would be ample cloud cover
limiting daytime heating. This would limit overall coverage of
thunderstorms, resulting in a more isolated risk for stronger
outflow gusts.

Synoptic winds across SW MT Wednesday:

As mentioned prior, a belt of stronger SW flow aloft overspreads the
region during the day Wednesday. Guidance is becoming more
consistent with this signal for stronger winds. That said, I'd like
to see another model cycle or two of consistency before considering
a High Wind Watch for these areas.

Winds Wednesday Night into Thursday:

Confidence is increasing in strong westerly mid-level flow
developing on the backside of the upper low progressing east of the
region Wednesday night into Thursday. That said, there is still a
small piece of uncertainty with respect to timing the strongest
winds aloft. Presently most guidance moves these strongest winds
across the region late Wednesday night, during a timeframe that
would not be conducive to widespread gusts being realized at the
surface. Should the timing of the stronger winds aloft be delayed by
6 hours or so, concern would rise for these much stronger winds
mixing to the surface Thursday across much of the region. Should
this scenario unfold, impacts from the gusty winds would be higher
compared to a similar magnitude event during winter, simply from the
perspective that trees are developing leaves.

This timeframe will continue to be monitored for trends in timing
and confidence levels. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
12/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions and generally light winds will prevail through the
TAF period with only a few passing high clouds expected through
the day on Tuesday. The exception will be along the Rocky Mountain
Front where winds will pick up Tuesday afternoon with gusts up to
35kts possible through the evening hours. -thor

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected on
Wednesday as temperatures soar well above normal and into the mid-
80s to low 90s, with the potential for numerous locations to set new
daily record highs for May 13th across Southwest through North
Central Montana. The warm temperatures will be accompanied by strong
and gusty south to west winds; most notably along and south of the I-
90 corridor within the north-south orientated valleys of Southwest
Montana, west of the I-15 corridor over the plains of Central and
North Central Montana, and across Hill and Blaine Counties. Further
enhancement of winds are likely beneath and/or near shower and
thunderstorm activity, especially across Southwest and portions of
Central Montana or generally along and south of the US Hwy 12
corridor. Dry conditions, with relative humidity values in the teens
will be common across much of the plains and valleys. Probabilities
for the Hot-Dry-Windy Index (HDWI) rising to within the 95Pct of
Climatology has increased to a 60% or greater chance across most
lower elevations across Southwest Montana south of the I-90 and
across Hill and Blaine Counties in North Central Montana, with Fire
Weather partners indicating that fuels would be receptive to fire,
especially across Southwest Montana. For this reason a Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for much of Southwest Montana and Fire Weather
Zone 113 in North Central Montana from 18z Wednesday through 03z
Thursday. - Moldan

&&

.CLIMATE...

...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR MAY 11...

LOCATION             FORECAST HIGH       RECORD HIGH
Dillon                   80                 83
West Yellowstone         77                 80

...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR MAY 12...

LOCATION             FORECAST HIGH       RECORD HIGH
Boulder                  80                 84
Dillon                   83                 84
West Yellowstone         80                 79

...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR MAY 13...

LOCATION             FORECAST HIGH       RECORD HIGH
Boulder                  84                 83
Bozeman MSU              89                 86
Chester                  89                 86
Choteau                  89                 85
Conrad                   89                 87
Cut Bank                 86                 84
Dillon                   88                 87
Fort Benton              94                 88
Great Falls              91                 89
Helena                   90                 89
Havre                    93                 92
Lewistown                88                 88
Shelby                   87                 84
Stanford                 88                 86
West Yellowstone         83                 81

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  79  50  89 /   0   0   0  30
CTB  38  76  46  82 /  20   0   0  30
HLN  42  83  48  89 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  39  81  45  88 /   0   0   0  20
WYS  36  80  41  81 /  20   0   0  20
DLN  42  83  49  84 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  38  78  47  92 /  20   0   0  20
LWT  39  74  46  88 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for Hill and Blaine Counties.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls