High Wind Warning 29, NWS Great Falls, MT

101 
WWUS75 KTFX 020537
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1137 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

MTZ325-030000-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0029.260902T1800Z-260903T0300Z/
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.A.0025.260903T0300Z-260904T0300Z/
Madison River Valley-
Including the cities of McAllister, Cameron, Ennis, Jeffers, and
Norris
1137 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning on Wednesday, southwest winds 35
  to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. For the High Wind Watch
  on Thursday, south winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  possible.

* WHERE...Madison River Valley.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday.
  For the High Wind Watch, from Wednesday evening through Thursday
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may cause damage to trees and power lines.
  Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind speeds will decrease to between 20 to 30
  mph from the late evening hours on Wednesday through the
  mid-morning hours on Thursday before increasing once again.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around
or damaged by the wind.

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.

&&

$$

Moldan

432 
WWUS75 KTFX 022043
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
243 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

MTZ325-030300-
/O.CAN.KTFX.HW.A.0025.260903T0300Z-260904T0300Z/
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0029.000000T0000Z-260903T0300Z/
Madison River Valley-
Including the cities of Cameron, Jeffers, Norris, Ennis, and
McAllister
243 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning on Wednesday, southwest winds 35
  to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Madison River Valley.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may cause damage to trees and power lines.
  Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

IG

272 
WWUS75 KTFX 030228
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
828 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

MTZ325-030330-
/O.CAN.KTFX.HW.W.0029.000000T0000Z-260903T0300Z/
Madison River Valley-
Including the cities of Cameron, McAllister, Jeffers, Ennis, and
Norris
828 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The threat for strong winds have ended.

$$

Brusda

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1145 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over the plains of
   Central and North Central Montana Wednesday, with the primary
   risk being damaging winds.

 - Above normal temperatures today falling near to below normal
   for the remainder of the week.

 - Strong and gusty winds on Wednesday and Thursday, especially
   within the north-south orientated valleys of Southwest Montana.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 843 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Longwave troughing over the Western CONUS, with south to southwest
flow aloft across the Northern Rockies, will dominate the upcoming
week. Shortwaves ejecting from the base of the trough axis and
lifting north to northeast within the aforementioned flow regime
will bring multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms to
Southwest through North Central Montana, most notably today and
Wednesday when the areal coverage precipitation will be greatest.
High temperatures, with the exception of today when highs will
generally be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, will mostly range from
near to below normal. Periods of strong and gusty winds will occur
over the next week, especially on Wednesday and Thursday within the
north-south orientated valleys of Southwest Montana where frequent
gusts in excess of 45 mph are likely to occur. - Moldan

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Strong Winds on Wednesday and Thursday...

ECMWF EFIs with respect to winds continue to support the potential
for an unusual to very unusual wind event, for early September,
through the period along and south of the I-90 corridor; most
notably within the Madison River Valley. Southerly H700 winds per
NAEFS analysis across Southwest Montana are prog'd to increase to
between 30-40kts by 18z Wednesday, and remain so through 00z Friday
before decreasing. These 2 to 2.5 standard deviation wind speeds
aligned with the north-south terrain in Southwest Montana,
specifically the Madison River Valley, combined with deep mixing
between 16z to 02z each day will support an ideal scenario for an
early season High Wind event. Given that NBM5.0 probabilities within
the Madison River for sustained wind speeds to exceed 40 mph range
between a 60-70% chance (Wednesday) and 30-40% chance (Thursday),
confidence remains high enough to continue the High Wind Watch with
this forecast package. The main reason for not upgrading the High
Wind Watch was uncertainty with respect to Wednesday night's into
Thursday's winds, which at this point in time appear to be slightly
weaker than during the daylight hours on Wednesday. Additionally, I
was unable to find a (6-9 hour) period in which wind speeds and/or
gusts decrease significantly enough in order to break-up the event
into two (2) distinct wind events, thus the watch from 18z Wednesday
through 03z Friday remains in effect for the Madison River Valley.

Listed below are the NBM5.0 probabilities for wind gusts to exceed
35, 45, and 55 mph for select locations across North Central,
Central, and Southwest Montana.

                    Wednesday's Wind Gusts Probabilities
LOCATION               > 35 mph | > 45 mph | > 55 mph
Browning                  95%   |    50%   |     5%
Cut Bank                  95%   |    60%   |    15%
Havre                     80%   |    40%   |     5%
Great Falls               90%   |    60%   |    20%
Lewistown                 60%   |    10%   |    <5%
Helena                    80%   |    45%   |    15%
Bozeman                   90%   |    65%   |    15%
Dillon                    90%   |    70%   |    25%
Ennis                    100%   |    85%   |    30%
West Yellowstone          95%   |    60%   |     0%

                     Thursday's Wind Gusts Probabilities
LOCATION               > 35 mph | > 45 mph | > 55 mph
Browning                  90%   |    65%   |    20%
Cut Bank                  90%   |    65%   |    20%
Havre                     75%   |    35%   |    <5%
Great Falls               80%   |    45%   |     5%
Lewistown                 70%   |     5%   |     0%
Helena                    75%   |    25%   |     0%
Bozeman                   85%   |    50%   |     5%
Dillon                   100%   |    60%   |    10%
Ennis                     95%   |    70%   |     5%
West Yellowstone          85%   |    40%   |     0%

Severe Thunderstorm Risk for Wednesday...

A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, mainly capable of
producing damaging winds, exists on Wednesday along and northwest of
a Helena, to Monarch, to Winifred line. Showers and thunderstorms
lifting northeast from Idaho and Western Montana are expected to
overspread the aforementioned area through the afternoon hours, with
BUFKIT sounding depicting inverted-V's beneath cloud bases of
10000kft. These high cloud bases combined with already anomalous low
level wind speeds will support the potential for a few severe
thunderstorm/shower wind gusts across portions of Central and North
Central Montana. - Moldan

&&

.AVIATION...
01/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals during this TAF
Period outside of during any thunderstorms. Showers and
thunderstorms will affect the KBZN, KEKS, KWYS, and KHLN terminals
between 02/01Z and 02/10Z. During any thunderstorms there will be
gusty, erratic winds, lightning, and a brief heavy downpour. The
heavy downpour could briefly cause mountain obscuration and a
reduction in visibility to MVFR-levels. Winds will between to
increase across Southwestern Montana by the end of this TAF
Period. During this TAF Period smoke from wildfires will reduce
slantwise visibility across all terminals. -IG

For KGTF: Winds will be light through at least 00Z with a zero
percent chance for exceeding the 15kt crosswind threshold. Between
01Z and 05Z there is a 30% chance for wind gusts to exceed the 15
kt crosswind threshold. Between 05Z and 08Z there is a 20 - 30%
chance for a shower and/or thunderstorm to reach KGTF and produce
an outflow wind which would exceed the 15kt crosswind threshold.
-IG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  85  56  81  48 /   0  10  50  20
CTB  83  52  77  45 /   0  10  70  50
HLN  86  51  78  48 /  10  40  60  10
BZN  82  49  77  45 /  20  40  20   0
WYS  69  37  64  33 /  40  60  20   0
DLN  81  45  74  42 /  30  50  60  10
HVR  88  54  87  49 /   0   0  50  60
LWT  83  54  82  48 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
evening for Madison River Valley.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls