Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Great Falls, MT

635 
WGUS75 KTFX 012240
FFSTFX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
440 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MTC007-043-049-012250-
/O.CAN.KTFX.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260701T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Broadwater MT-Jefferson MT-Lewis and Clark MT-
440 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR BROADWATER, JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS AND CLARK COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended and flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1200 AM MDT Thursday for
portions of central and southwest Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4655 11203 4658 11209 4668 11211 4672 11193
      4673 11168 4673 11162 4662 11149 4632 11129
      4625 11132 4629 11158 4637 11163 4654 11180

$$

RCG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
540 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through
  at least Friday, most widespread this afternoon and evening.

- Drier, warmer, and breezy to windy conditions move in for
  the holiday weekend.

- Temperatures warm further heading into early next week,
  although shower and thunderstorm activity looks to ramp up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

An initial wave of showers and thunderstorms moving through
central MT this morning will slowly diminish and end around dawn.
There is also some lingering smoke and haze from Canadian
wildfires that will be clearing out this morning as the general
flow aloft becomes west and eventually southwesterly. A shortwave
will move through this increasingly unstable southwesterly flow
and bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. ML CAPE values will be running roughly
between 600 and 1100 J/kg over southwest MT and central/north-
central areas east of I15/highway 87. The combination of this
instability with bulk shear running above 30 kts will be
sufficient to produce a few strong to severe storms in these areas
with strong, gusty winds, hail, and heavy downpours being the
primary hazards in addition to cloud to ground lightning.

Similar conditions prevail on Thursday and Friday with widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms, but there will be a lack of a
defined shortwave and shear on Thursday and on Friday the
shortwave positioning looks to be a little too far east for
widespread activity. Flat ridging starts to build in and bring
warmer temperatures and drier conditions for the holiday weekend;
however, a mid-level trough passing north of the Canadian border
looks strengthen the westerly flow aloft and combine with deep
layer mixing for breezy to windy conditions. Saturday,
Independence Day, will be the windiest day with the highest
probabilities for 40 mph wind gusts or higher along the Rocky
Mountain Front. The greatest impacts from the winds will be for
holiday related activities and for outdoor recreation. Recent
rainfall and surface greening should preclude fire weather
concerns despite the low afternoon humidities.

Mid-level heights continue to rise and bring summer like
temperatures early next week. The only caveat will be a
southwesterly flow aloft developing again in response to a trough
moving onto the PAcific NW coast. Shortwaves look to interact with
building instability for increased shower and thunderstorm
activity next Monday and Tuesday. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index
(EFI) is already beginning to highlight unusually high CAPE and
shear availability for strong to severe storms for these days
should this pattern come to fruition. - RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
01/12Z TAF Period

Quiet conditions this morning, before another round of
showers/thunderstorms affects Southwest and Central MT this
afternoon/evening. Some storms could produce gusty winds this
afternoon. Smoke from distant fires is now affecting much of the
CWA for distant visibility. Distant visibility is now less than 20
miles in some areas. Expect distant visibility to be affected
across the CWA by clouds/precip/smoke through the period. Brusda

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Ongoing flooding continues to be reported along Swift Creek in
the Many Glacier area, so the Flood Warning for that area was
extended through 430 PM today. All other flood products were
lifted per receding waters and no significant rains expected in
the near term. - RCG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  75  51  77  52 /  30  30   0  10
CTB  72  48  73  48 /  20  20   0   0
HLN  73  50  76  51 /  70  60  30  10
BZN  74  46  76  48 /  70  40  10  20
WYS  70  37  72  39 /  10  20  10   0
DLN  71  44  75  46 /  70  40  10  10
HVR  79  53  80  52 /  20  40  10  10
LWT  74  47  74  48 /  50  60  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1231 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MTZ328-329-011900-
Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains MT-
Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft MT-
1231 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BEAVERHEAD COUNTY
THROUGH 100 PM MDT...

At 1230 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles northeast of Leadore, or 28 miles southwest of Dillon, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clark Canyon and Grant.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4484 11304 4493 11323 4513 11306 4497 11270
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 221DEG 21KT 4494 11306

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
105 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MTZ322-324-011945-
Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains MT-Missouri Headwaters MT-
105 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MADISON AND
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM MDT...

At 105 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles east of Walkerville to 12 miles east of
Butte to 6 miles west of Whitehall. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Whitehall, Cardwell, Lewis And Clark Caverns State Park, and Elk
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4609 11247 4624 11207 4607 11183 4581 11177
      4577 11226 4579 11228 4581 11236 4586 11242
      4591 11241 4598 11245 4602 11244 4605 11248
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 249DEG 20KT 4604 11240 4596 11225 4585 11223

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

IG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
119 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MTZ327>330-012000-
Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains MT-
Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains MT-
Northwest Beaverhead County MT-
Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft MT-
119 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL BEAVERHEAD COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM MDT...

At 119 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 8 miles south of Dillon, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dillon, Sheridan, Alder, Dell, Beaverhead Rock State Park, Laurin,
and Clark Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4460 11272 4508 11305 4546 11220 4499 11177
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 240DEG 20KT 4509 11269

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
147 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MTZ322-012030-
Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains MT-
147 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL BROADWATER AND
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM MDT...

At 147 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Boulder, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhorn State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4620 11204 4628 11213 4650 11187 4630 11164
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 233DEG 19KT 4627 11202

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

IG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
213 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MTZ322-323-012100-
Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains MT-Canyon Ferry Area MT-
213 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BROADWATER AND
EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM MDT...

At 213 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Townsend, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Townsend, Silos, Winston, and Goose Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4629 11175 4639 11185 4661 11155 4633 11134
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 243DEG 14KT 4638 11170

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
223 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MTZ315-316-319-320-322-323-012115-
Helena Valley MT-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains MT-
Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains MT-
Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass MT-Canyon Ferry Area MT-
Gates of the Mountains MT-
223 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LEWIS AND CLARK AND
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM MDT...

At 223 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 12 miles west of East
Helena to near Helena to near Montana City. Movement was north at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Helena, East Helena, Montana City, Alhambra, Spring Meadow Lake State
Park, Clancy, Black Sandy State Park, and Austin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4684 11221 4681 11191 4668 11169 4642 11195
      4649 11208 4654 11230 4655 11231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 199DEG 18KT 4658 11219 4655 11205 4653 11201

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG