Tornado Warning 1, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

505 
WWUS52 KTBW 121758
SVSTBW

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
158 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

FLC101-121830-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260512T1830Z/
Pasco FL-
158 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL PASCO COUNTY...

At 158 PM EDT, a radar indicated waterspout was just offshore located
near Jasmine Estates, or near Hudson, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Hudson and Jasmine Estates around 205 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Bayonet Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2837 8278 2838 8278 2840 8262 2828 8264
      2829 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 266DEG 11KT 2832 8276 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

TBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
824 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for eastern portions of
  the forecast area today and tomorrow afternoon.

- Locally heavy rain possible this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026
A stationary boundary persists across north Florida. An U/L
disturbance will continue to ride over the frontal boundary today
and tonight and will generate numerous to widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms. An atmospheric river remains evident on
W/V imagery extending from the tropical eastern Pacific...across
the Gulf...and Florida peninsula. This will increase the risk for
locally heavy convective rainfall across the forecast area this
afternoon with a few 2 to 4 inch bullseye possible, with the best
chance over the interior. This is due to the continued onshore
west to southwest boundary layer flow which favors highest pops
over the interior and eastern Peninsula. An MCS which formed over
the central Gulf on Monday has been weakening as its pushed off
the loop current and is currently moving over the relatively
cooler eastern Gulf. However, there may be enough of this remnant
complex to hold together and move onshore the west central coast
of Florida around sunrise with a few showers and possibly a
thunderstorm...although satellite imagery indicates this area of
showers/storms has been dissipating rather quickly over the past
several hours. Will continue to monitor.

As the U/L disturbance exits the region tonight, the frontal
boundary across north Florida will sink south down the Florida
peninsula with winds veering to the north and northwest.
Shower/thunderstorm activity will also exit to the east.

On Wednesday, surface high pressure will begin to build over the
forecast area. Remnant deep layer moisture in the wake of the
exiting system will be sufficient to generate scattered showers
and thunderstorms mainly over the interior in region of max
heating and L/L convergence. NBM POPs appear to be a bit
overdone.

High pressure and drier air will become better established
Thursday through Saturday with overall dry conditions expected
with high temperatures generally in the mid 80s at the coast to
the lower 90s inland each day.

Low level moisture will recover a bit Sunday and Monday with a
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly south of
Tampa bay.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 822 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Biggest weather concern today for our airports will be scattered
showers and storms that are expected to form in the afternoon and
evening. Storms should develop closer to the coast in the the
early afternoon before shifting to inland locations. Best chances
will be away from the coast. Winds will generally stay below 10
knots outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026
Relatively weak gradient will persist over the waters through the
period with no headlines expected. Main hazard today will be
isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead of a frontal boundary
which will move across the waters today and tonight. The storms will
be capable of producing strong gusty winds and locally rough
seas. High pressure will build over the waters in the wake of the
front Wednesday, and will hold over the region through the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026
No fire weather hazards are expected through Thursday as
sufficient low level moisture will keep minimum relative humidity
values above critical levels through mid week. Dry air combined
with warm temperatures may create critical relative humidity
values over portions of the nature coast and interior Friday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  74  86  73 /  50  50  20  10
FMY  92  74  89  73 /  30  20  30  10
GIF  89  71  88  70 /  80  40  60  10
SRQ  90  73  87  72 /  30  30  30   0
BKV  88  66  87  66 /  70  50  30  10
SPG  91  75  87  75 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce