Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
Issued by National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1222 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- High coverage of mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms
  through the weekend. There remains a small chance of heavy
  rainfall amounts leading to localized flooding.

- Seasonably hot and muggy conditions persist each day. Highs in
  the lower 90s will feel more like 100 to 105 due to the
  humidity. Residents and visitors should take hydration breaks
  and seek the shade or A/C if feeling unwell.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

The Florida Peninsula remains situated beneath mid-level high
pressure extending along the southern tier of the U.S. and into
the western Atlantic. Very weak energy perturbations were analyzed
at H5; these are forecast to lift north over the state through
tonight. Total moisture (PWAT) levels remain near to above
seasonal norms. At the surface, an axis of high pressure sits
north of Central Florida, allowing light southeasterly boundary-
layer flow.

Over the next few days, the mid-level ridge should remain very
close to the state before building over the Appalachians by early
next week. This should keep background flow light or southeasterly
through the weekend before turning ENE early next week. Moisture
values are expected to hold near or just above normal as well.

Within this pattern, scattered to numerous showers and storms are
forecast to develop each afternoon and evening, with a concentration
closer to the Gulf Coast today before shifting slightly into the
interior on Friday through the weekend. Light winds should allow the
Gulf breeze to make some progress inland, focusing convection where
it interacts with other mesoscale boundaries. There is a low threat
for gusty winds up to 50 mph from the strongest storms, and a 5%
chance of rainfall totals exceeding 3-4" which may cause flooding
in areas that have already experienced heavy rain this week.

Seasonably hot and muggy conditions will continue before any showers
and storms manage to develop. Expect highs in the low-mid 90s,
and peak heat index readings from 100 to 105.
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR will continue, absent SHRA/TSRA. TSRA is more likely to begin
from RSW/FMY/PGD after 18-19z and spread north/west thereafter,
approaching LAL/SRQ by 19-21z, then TPA/PIE after 21-22z. Gusty,
variable winds and brief MVFR/IFR reductions are possible with
+TSRA. Activity dissipates gradually from S-N after 00-01z Fri.

A similar story is forecast Fri. with SHRA/TSRA beginning after 18z,
increasing in coverage 21z near/east of TPA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

(previous discussion) Weak high pressure will hold over the waters
through the period with winds below cautionary levels each day. The
main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms,
mainly during the evening and overnight hours, which may cause
locally gusty winds and rough seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

(previous discussion) No fire weather hazards
are expected as abundant moisture will keep minimum afternoon
relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next
several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  90  78  91 /  30  50  20  70
FMY  77  93  77  92 /  30  70  30  70
GIF  75  93  76  93 /  40  60  30  70
SRQ  76  91  77  92 /  30  40  20  70
BKV  73  92  74  93 /  20  60  30  70
SPG  78  90  78  90 /  30  50  20  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER... Heil (MLB)
AVIATION...Schaper (MLB)

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
448 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SE Solana             26.92N 82.00W
09/10/2026  M51 MPH          Charlotte          FL   ASOS

            ASOS station KPGD Punta Gorda reported 51
            mph wind gust.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
523 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     Flood            3 N Southwest Internat  26.58N 81.75W
09/10/2026                   Lee                FL   Public

            Public shared video of minor street flooding
            in Gateway.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
643 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

FLZ043-052-249-102330-
Inland Pasco FL-Sumter FL-Polk FL-
643 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER...EAST
CENTRAL PASCO AND NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 643 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Combee Settlement, or 12 miles north of Lakeland,
moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Polk City, Withla, Rockridge, and Kathleen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2814 8205 2816 8206 2817 8206 2835 8214
      2838 8196 2835 8196 2835 8186 2836 8185
      2836 8183 2817 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 165DEG 7KT 2823 8194

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
735 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

FLZ149-151-249-251-110015-
Inland Pasco FL-Coastal Hillsborough FL-Coastal Pasco FL-
Inland Hillsborough FL-
735 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PASCO AND NORTH
CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

At 735 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Keystone, or 7 miles west of Lutz, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
New Port Richey, Lutz, Jasmine Estates, New Port Richey East, Land O
Lakes, Citrus Park, Lake Magdalene, Keystone, Greater Northdale,
Greater Carrollwood, Moon Lake, Gowers Corner, Odessa, Jay B Starkey
Wilderness Park, Bayonet Point, Lake Fern, Cheval, Trinity,
Westchase, and Shady Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2809 8244 2806 8258 2832 8273 2838 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 164DEG 12KT 2817 8257

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
739 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

FLZ043-248-110030-
Inland Hernando FL-Sumter FL-
739 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL SUMTER AND EAST CENTRAL
HERNANDO COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

At 738 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mascotte, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bushnell, Lake Panasoffkee, Center Hill, Webster, Wahoo, Adamsville,
Tarrytown, and Sumterville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2850 8196 2846 8205 2848 8206 2848 8214
      2872 8225 2874 8223 2882 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 161DEG 10KT 2856 8200

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
812 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

FLZ043-242-110115-
Inland Citrus FL-Sumter FL-
812 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN CITRUS AND NORTHERN
SUMTER COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

At 812 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wildwood. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Inverness, Wildwood, Inverness Highlands South, Lake Panasoffkee,
Coleman, Arbor Lakes, River Lakes Manor, Rutland, Adamsville,
Withlapopka Isle, Gospel Island, Oxford, and Floral City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2896 8231 2896 8196 2881 8195 2872 8226
      2897 8241 2897 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 137DEG 3KT 2882 8202

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TBW