Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
909 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk for heavy rain today into the weekend with
  localized flooding possible.

- High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches into the
  weekend.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with dangerous lighting into
  the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Deep tropical moisture remains over the area with the 12Z TBW
sounding showing PWATs at 2.41 in, which is at the climatological
daily max for today. Expect the areas of morning scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorm to continue to develop and move
over the state with heavy rain and frequent lighting possible
today. Convective winds gusts have generally been around 30 mph
this morning but diurnal heating may add extra instability for
stronger gusts this afternoon. Persists SW-W flow over the E gulf
continues to produce dangerous rip currents along area beaches
today into the weekend. Have update latest grids and forecasts
based on radar trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA continue to develop and move over the area
with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs with all terminals potentially
impacted periodically throughout the day. VFR conditions return
tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026
A frontal boundary will stall across north central Florida today.
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop over the northern/central coastal waters late
tonight/early Thursday morning and will push onshore in broad west
to southwest flow. Locally heavy rain will be possible and may
cause urban/street flooding, and flooding of low lying/flood
prone areas. Slightly stronger winds over the near shore waters
will also create a high risk of rip currents.

Similar pattern will remain in place for Friday with onshore
boundary layer flow, deep tropical moisture over the forecast
area, and scattered to numerous showers/storms re-developing over
the northern/central coastal waters Thursday night and advecting
onshore during the late night/early morning hours Friday. Locally
heavy rain will again be possible with the potential for localized
flooding. The high risk of rip currents along area beaches will
also persist.

Over the weekend, an anomalously sharp U/L trough will dig over
the eastern U.S. with an associated frontal boundary pushing
across the southeast U.S. on Saturday, and stalling over the
Florida panhandle on Sunday. This will enhance the deep southwest
flow over the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula and will create
large scale lift across the region. This will aid in developing
numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms over the
northern/central coastal waters which will again move onshore much
of west central Florida both Saturday and Sunday. This will also
increase the risk for flooding from approximately the
Sarasota/Bradenton area and north to Levy county. Heaviest
rainfall totals will likely be near and along the coast.

The heavy rain threat will spill into early next week with
additional U/L energy overriding the stalled frontal boundary.
Residual deep layer moisture will hold over the forecast area on
Tuesday with the shower/thunderstorm pattern going back to
more typical sea breeze driven scenario along with storms forming
due to afternoon boundary collisions under weak southerly
boundary layer flow.

Some drier air aloft may finally work its way over the forecast
area by mid week with boundary layer flow shifting to the
southeast. Best chance for afternoon storms will be over southwest
Florida in region of best deep layer moisture, and over the
coastal counties along the west coast sea breeze boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1212 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026
West to southwest flow will persist through the weekend with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over
the waters during the overnight hours and shifting onshore mainly
through the morning and early afternoon each day. Cautionary level
winds will occur on portions of the waters for the next several
days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1212 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above
critical levels for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  81  89  79 /  80  50  50  50
FMY  90  79  91  78 /  50  10  10  10
GIF  91  76  92  76 /  80  50  50  40
SRQ  89  78  90  78 /  70  30  40  40
BKV  90  76  90  75 /  80  60  70  60
SPG  88  81  88  80 /  80  50  50  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
910 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

FLZ043-248-249-301345-
Inland Hernando FL-Inland Pasco FL-Sumter FL-
910 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL SUMTER...
NORTHEASTERN PASCO AND CENTRAL HERNANDO COUNTIES THROUGH 945 AM
EDT...

At 910 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brooksville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Spring Hill, Brooksville, Dade City, St. Leo, Hill n Dale, South
Brooksville, North Brooksville, Ridge Manor, San Antonio, Saint Leo,
High Point, Lake Lindsey, Blanton, Spring Lake, Garden Grove,
Nobleton, Croom, Brookridge, Lacoochee, and Istachatta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2869 8244 2869 8242 2867 8242 2867 8233
      2862 8209 2831 8225 2854 8253
TIME...MOT...LOC 1310Z 289DEG 23KT 2855 8237

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TBW