Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
827 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler temperatures return later today and tonight. A Cold
  Weather Advisory is in effect for tonight and a Freeze Watch is
  in effect for Monday night/Tuesday morning.

- High fire danger for the Nature Coast this afternoon and for
  the entire forecast area Monday afternoon.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected through Monday night into
  Tuesday along with a high risk for rip currents.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

The cold front is now to the south of the forecast area with
clearing skies and drier conditions moving into the region.
Northwesterly winds have increased behind the departing front with
some wind gusts to 30-40 mph at times. These higher gusts are
generally limited to along the coast but even inland winds are
gusting to 20-30 mph. Cooler air is also moving in behind the
front with overnight lows tonight forecast down in the mid 30s to
mid 40s. The combination of cold temperatures and strong winds
will lead to wind chill values in the mid 20s to mid 30s areawide.
Due to this, there is a cold weather advisory in effect for most
of the area overnight tonight and in Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
Cooler and drier air has started to filter into the northern part
of the forecast area this afternoon behind a frontal boundary
located over central Florida. We still have a broken line of
showers headed toward southwest Florida, but these will soon be
out of our forecast area. The next few days will feature a couple
of colder mornings, with a few hazards in place. There is a Cold
Weather Advisory in effect tonight into Monday morning for
portions of the area as breezy winds will lead to lower wind
chills, followed by a Freeze Watch for Tuesday morning as that
still looks like the coldest morning of the week. Some inland
locations will likely see a hard freeze while freezing
temperatures will be seen for most of the forecast area outside of
the coast. Most if not all of that area will likely be upgraded
to a warning later tonight.

The rest of the week will feature a rather quick warm-up as surface
high pressure shifts eastward. Temperatures will be closer to normal
Wednesday afternoon after a cool start to the morning, then Thursday
through the weekend we'll see highs in the upper 70s to lower or
even mid 80s once again. Another weather system comes through late
Friday into Saturday, bringing our next chance for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF cycle. The main
aviation impact will be the gusty winds. Northwest winds could
gust to near 30 kts at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 107 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
A cold front is moving through the region today, with winds turning
northwest and increasing to advisory levels along with some gusts to
gale force. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all zones
through Monday night before conditions improve Tuesday through the
rest of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
Much drier air has started to move into the region behind a frontal
boundary, and with gusty winds also in place, the Red Flag Warning
continues for several Nature Coast counties this afternoon. For
tomorrow afternoon, the drier air will be over the entire area and
gusty winds will remain, and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect.
Low relative humidity values continue into mid-week, but winds
diminish, so there are no other Red Flag concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  44  55  37 /  60   0   0   0
FMY  79  43  62  36 /  50   0   0   0
GIF  77  40  57  33 /  60   0   0   0
SRQ  74  46  57  38 /  50   0   0   0
BKV  73  33  55  26 /  50   0   0   0
SPG  74  50  57  44 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Polk-Sumter.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-
     Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-
     Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-
     Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-
     Polk-Sumter.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana