Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1232 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and
  into early next week.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the
  afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026
Widespread showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain
continues from about the Tampa Bay area and north. Shower activity
will very slowly stratify out and dissipate over the next several
hours, but localized flooding continues to be a threat.

Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to
extend across the Florida peninsula for the next several days
with the ridge axis located north of the forecast area. This will
cause east to southeast boundary layer flow to persist into early
next week. The west coast sea breeze boundary will push inland
about 20 to 40 miles each afternoon and will be the focus for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms...with the
boundary/storms likely pushing back to the coast during the
evening hours. Abundant deep layer moisture over the region will
again lead to the risk of locally heavy rain/flooding this
afternoon/evening.

Slightly drier air aloft will advect over the forecast area Monday
and Tuesday which will reduce the areal coverage of afternoon
storms. However, the drier mid level air may cause a few storms to
be strong with gusty winds of 40 to 50 MPH.

Deeper moisture will return mid/late next week as an U/L trough
develops over the Florida peninsula. Onshore boundary layer flow
is also likely to develop as well.  U/L energy (with daily
details to far out to discern attm) associated with the U/L trough
will enhance large scale lift increasing areal coverage of
showers/storms as it taps the better deep layer moisture profile.
This pattern generally favors showers/storms to develop over the
coastal waters during the overnight hours advecting onshore each
day with fairly widespread activity expected. Can't rule out
locally heavy rain, especially over the coastal counties mainly
from the Tampa Bay area and north, as training could develop off
the increasingly warmer waters of the Gulf. Will continue to
monitor evolution of this pattern change over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026
Showers/storms will impact TPA/PIE and possibly LAL during the
next couple of hours with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs in heavier
showers/storms. Activity is expected to end a few hours before
sunrise with skies becoming generally partly cloudy to high
broken VFR CIGs around 250. Showers/thunderstorms will redevelop
Sunday afternoon/evening and may impact all terminals for a few
hours again with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs with the stronger
storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1209 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026
Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the
middle of the upcoming week. Main hazard will be showers/storms
developing over land each afternoon which will push offshore
during the evening hours causing locally gusty winds and rough
seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1209 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026
Sufficient low level moisture will hold across the forecast area
for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon
relative humidity values above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  76  90  77 /  70  60  40  50
FMY  93  76  93  76 /  60  50  30  20
GIF  92  75  92  76 /  50  40  30  20
SRQ  91  75  92  75 /  50  60  40  40
BKV  92  73  93  73 /  80  60  40  50
SPG  92  77  92  77 /  60  50  50  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby