Tornado Warning 12, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1247 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1246 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

- There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of Severe Weather along and
  to the east of a line of thunderstorms today. Damaging wind gusts in
  excess of 60 mph and a couple tornadoes embedded within the line
  are the primary concerns. A Tornado Watch is in effect for much of
  the region through 3 PM CT/4 PM ET.

- Gusty winds ahead of the line of thunderstorms are expected.
  Frequent gusts of 30 to 40 mph are forecast, especially across the
  Florida Big Bend into South-Central Georgia. A Wind Advisory
  remains in effect for the aforementioned areas into this evening.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the coastal waters
  through tonight, along with a high rip current risk along the
  Gulf Beaches and high surf at the Emerald Coast beaches into Monday.

- There is a medium to high (50 to 80 percent) chance of well above
  normal highs exceeding 80 degrees between Thursday and Saturday,
  which may approach daily record values at some of our climate sites.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1120 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

As of 1150 AM ET, a line of thunderstorms is moving through the FL
Big Bend and portions of Southwest GA. Along and ahead of the line,
a Tornado Watch is in effect through 3 PM CT/4 PM ET. Damaging
thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and a couple tornadoes
embedded within the line of storms are the primary concerns. The
line of storms will exit the Suwanee Valley of GA and the FL Big
Bend between 5 PM and 6 PM ET. A Wind Advisory remains in effect
until 6 PM ET for gusty southerly winds ahead of the line. Frequent
gusts of 30 to 40 mph are forecast.

Low pressure and attendant cold front move east of the area early
tonight. With a moist air mass remaining in place, patchy fog is
possible especially if winds decouple enough late tonight.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the coastal waters
through tonight, along with a high rip current risk along the
Gulf Beaches and high surf at the Emerald Coast beaches into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1120 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Looking ahead, a warm period of weather is on tap from Tuesday
through Friday, with highs warming well into the 70s to around 80.
There is a medium to high (50 to 80 percent) chance of well above
normal highs exceeding 80 degrees between Thursday and Saturday,
which may approach daily record values at some of our climate sites.
Mainly dry weather Monday through Wednesday with the next chance of
showers on Thursday and Friday. The pattern looks increasingly
favorable for fog by midweek as a moist air mass overspreads the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

A strong and nearly solid thunderstorm squall line has moved east
of TLH and will cross VLD from now through 20z. Where the line
has moved on, a dry slot will follow, with a 2-4 hour long wedge
of simply fair weather cumulus, albeit with gusty west winds. Then
an upper low will move across the terminals during the late
afternoon and early evening, bringing a round of showers with
somewhat reduced vsbys. Once the upper low moves on late this
evening, the terminals will be left with steady post-frontal
stratus. The post-frontal stratus will start to scatter out a few
hours after sunrise Monday, as surface winds clock around
northeasterly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1120 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the coastal waters
into tonight for southerly winds around 20 to 25 knots with brief in
excess of 34 knots and seas just offshore of 6 to 9 feet. Briefly
higher winds and seas are likely as a line of thunderstorms sweeps
across the waters from west to east prior to sunset. In addition,
brief wind gusts in excess of 34 knots are likely preceding this
line as well. Winds will clock around to the west and begin to
diminish with the passage of a cold front tonight, when any patchy
fog will dissipate. A gradual return to tranquil boating conditions
is expected by Tuesday as seas decrease.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1120 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

The air mass begins to dry out tonight in the wake of a cold frontal
passage with dry weather on tap through Wednesday. Afternoon Min RH
dips down into the 50s each day with some pockets of 40s possible.
Fair dispersion is expected Monday and Tuesday with modest mixing
heights and northeast transport winds clocking around to southeast,
expect lower values along the Apalachee Bay coast, especially Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1120 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Radar-estimated rainfall as of late this morning much of Southeast
AL and the Eastern FL Panhandle indicates 1-2 inches of rainfall,
with a strip of ~3" amounts from Walton into Geneva Counties. The
remainder of the region will see around 1 inch of rain with pockets
of 2" possible, until the rain ends by tonight. This is welcomed
rain given the ongoing severe to extreme drought. WPC also maintains
a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall today; the
main concern is nuisance flooding of poor drainage areas, as the
bar for flash flooding is very high. No river flooding issues are
expected.

In terms of coastal flood potential, the slightly faster arrival of
the front means the gusty southerly winds should be turning more
westerly in Apalachee Bay. That said, water levels will approach
around 1.5 ft above MHHW around the times of high tide this evening
into early Monday morning. This is sufficient to get some locals
into Action Stage, especially in the upper reaches of the bay.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   56  69  49  72 /  30   0   0   0
Panama City   56  70  53  69 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        54  69  48  71 /  40   0   0   0
Albany        53  69  45  70 /  60   0   0   0
Valdosta      54  69  46  72 /  50   0   0   0
Cross City    54  72  47  77 /  50   0   0   0
Apalachicola  56  68  53  64 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for FLZ015>019-027>029-
     034-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ108-
     112-114.

GA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for GAZ125>131-143>148-
     155>161.

AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for GMZ730-755-765-
     775.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ735.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ751-752-770-
     772.

&&

SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
130 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1059 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE Bethany            30.87N 84.72W
02/15/2026                   Decatur            GA   911 Call Center

            Quite a few trees blown down along Spring
            Creek Rd. A car was blown off the road.

&&

Haner

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
139 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 S Grady Co a/P        30.85N 84.16W
02/15/2026                   Grady              GA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            A tree was blown across Shiloh Rd in the 200
            block.

&&

Haner

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
143 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1154 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Forest Meadows Park 30.57N 84.28W
02/15/2026                   Leon               FL   Emergency Mngr

            There was a tree down on N Meridian Rd at
            Gardner.

&&

Haner

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
205 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNE Whigham           30.92N 84.31W
02/15/2026                   Grady              GA   Utility Company

            Grady EMC reports a broken power pole,
            affecting 109 members.

&&

Haner

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
214 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0104 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SSE Port Leon         30.07N 84.18W
02/15/2026  M44 MPH          Wakulla            FL   Mesonet

            Courtesy FSWN Wakulla St Marks Lighthouse.

1209 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSW Madison           30.45N 83.42W
02/15/2026  M43 MPH          Madison            FL   Mesonet

            Courtesy FSWN Madison County EOC.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
241 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SSE Hanover           30.88N 84.64W
02/15/2026                   Decatur            GA   911 Call Center

            This updates the location of an earlier LSR
            focused on Spring Creek Rd. A car was blown
            off the road and trees blown down at Spring
            Creek Rd and Pineywoods Dr.

&&

Haner