Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
941 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 938 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through early next week.
  Highs will range from the low to middle 90s across inland areas, with
  heat indices ranging from 96-104F.

- Rain chances increase on today, especially in the Florida
  Counties, and continue Monday. Afternoon thunderstorms this
  evening and again on Sunday may have gusty winds and small hail,
  in addition to lightning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Showers have gotten an early start on land with just enough lift
from the upper-level low on the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula. A couple lightning strikes have been observed, but most
of this activity has been light to moderate showers. Expect these
ton continue moving southward toward the coast over the next few
hours. Then, we'll await the daytime heating to kick things off on
the seabreeze this afternoon. Main adjustments to the forecast
package were to increase rain chances this morning over the FL
Panhandle, southeast AL, and far southwest GA and nudge highs out
west down by a degree or two given the extra cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Overnight water vapor imagery shows the spin of an upper low in the
east Gulf, northeast flow north of the upper low and moisture
feeding into the area from the Atlantic. Further west, dry air
associated with an upper high and subsidence is located across
central and east Texas east to southern Mississippi. Surface ridging
to the north is keeping surface winds from the east and northeast
while speeds are generally light to moderate. Upstream showers and
storms into central Georgia and South Carolina are pushing to the
southwest, and if it holds together, will reach our area overnight.

This general weather regime will continue Sunday into Monday before
the upper low lifts north and becomes absorbed in the flow later
Monday ahead of a shortwave trough moving into the upper Midwest.
Thunderstorm development each day will begin in the mid afternoon
and generally be concentrated in the Florida counties where the
higher rain chances reside and associated with the seabreeze.
Additional storms will develop later in the day over southeast
Alabama and southwest Georgia and continue into the evening hours.
East coast seabreeze activity will also arrive along the I75
corridor and eastern Big Bend later in the afternoons. Much like
today, stronger storms are possible and will be accompanied with
strong and gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Highs
Sunday through Tuesday will reach the low to mid 90s, and with good
mixing experienced over the past few days, this will keep heat
indices relatively checked into the 96-102F range.

The ridge attempts to build back to the east as the upper low
departs, however, troughing east of the Mississippi river digs south
while strengthening and shunts the ridge back west. Meanwhile,
models depict a cold front passing through the area midweek (timing
differences between the GFS and Euro) with high pressure building
back down the Appalachians behind the frontal passage towards next
weekend. Northeast to east winds build back in on the southside of
the surface ridge with highs moderating down towards the mid 80s
this time next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Generally VFR conds prevail the next 24 hrs. There is a brief
window of MVFR patchy fog/low stratus possible at VLD/ABY/DHN.
Another round of scattered aftn thunderstorms expected maintains
PROB30s at all sites, though the onset has been slightly edited
again based on the latest CAMs. Best convective coverage appears
to be TLH/ECP/VLD. Winds remain lgt/vrb thru the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Gentle to moderate northeast breezes expected through midweek with
high pressure generally north of the waters. Within the seabreeze
zone, moderate onshore flow will develop each afternoon into the
evening before switching offshore during the overnight hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected through midweek as
well. A cold front is slated to move through the Gulf waters later
this week. Expect moderate to fresh northeast winds to accompany the
front towards next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

High pressure remains anchored to our north continuing northeast
transport winds into early this week. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will develop each afternoon into the evening hours with
the better coverage along and south of I-10 associated with the
seabreeze. Erratic and gusty winds, in addition to lightning, are
the main concerns. Afternoon minRHs will fall into the mid-40s to
mid-50s over the next few days. Heat indices the next few days will
be between 96-104F during the afternoon hours. LOw dispersions today
will be located from I-75 south into the Florida Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase Sunday and Monday,
especially in the FL Counties, then decrease by midweek. While
locally heavy rainfall may lead to minor flooding within areas of
poor drainage, the probability of flash flooding is low and there
are no riverine flooding concerns over the next several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  73  92  72 /  50  20  40  20
Panama City   90  74  91  75 /  50  20  40  10
Dothan        92  71  93  71 /  40  30  20  20
Albany        92  72  92  71 /  40  10  20  30
Valdosta      90  71  92  71 /  50  20  30  10
Cross City    90  72  90  72 /  60  30  60  10
Apalachicola  88  75  87  75 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
107 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

FLZ028-128-201745-
Inland Taylor FL-Coastal Taylor FL-
107 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY THROUGH
145 PM EDT...

At 107 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Perry. The strong thunderstorm is nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Perry, Pinland, Secotan, Boyd, Foley, Perry-Foley Airport, Bucell
Junction, Hampton Springs, and Fenholloway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3024 8366 3016 8338 2989 8366 3000 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 345DEG 1KT 3012 8358

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
121 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

FLZ019-201800-
Madison FL-
121 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MADISON COUNTY THROUGH 200 PM
EDT...

At 121 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Madison. The strong thunderstorm is nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Greenville, Lee, Ebb, Moseley Hall, Hopewell, Cherry Lake,
Hamburg, Hanson, Pinetta, and Sirmans.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 8324 3038 8328 3026 8339 3026 8347
      3030 8347 3031 8380 3065 8351 3064 8334
      3062 8327 3059 8326 3055 8326 3052 8324
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 122DEG 4KT 3044 8351

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD