Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
131 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- Tropical Depression Two is moving slowly to the NW and is
  expected to become a Tropical Storm later today. A Tropical
  Storm Watch is in effect along the Panhandle Coast over to
  coastal Franklin County.

- Locally heavy rain is the main concern over the next several
  days. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of Excessive
  rainfall, mainly over Florida, through at least Thursday
  morning. Do not drive through flooded roadways.

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions are expected much of the work
  week. A High Risk of rip currents is forecast the next several
  day at all area beaches along with High Surf. It is strongly
  discouraged to enter the surf on high risk days. Please heed the
  beach flags and advice from local officials.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

As of the 7 AM CDT Intermediate Advisory from NHC, Tropical
Depression 2 was located about 85 miles South-Southwest of
Apalachicola and moving Northwest at 3 mph. Maximum sustained
winds are near 35 mph, and the depression is expected to become
a tropical storm later today, with a slow northwestward motion
expected during the next day or so.

There are no changes to the forecast or key messages with this
update. Please refer to the short and long term section below for
more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Depression #2 continues to swirl in the northeastern Gulf.
It's forecast to gradually drift northwest to west over the coming
days as it attempts to get better organized. As far as the impacts
on our weather is concerned, bands of showers and a few
thunderstorms will spiral around TD#2, giving us periods of tropical
downpours and gusty winds. The heaviest rain is forecast to fall
along and south of I-10 in the Florida Big Bend where 2" to 5" of
rain is forecast with pockets of 7" or more possible. This could
cause some localized flooding concerns and is why there is a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall through
Wednesday. Also, while not super likely, we'll also monitor the
potential for a quick tornado or two within any of the bands that
will spiral around TD#2 through at least Tuesday night. But, again,
that chance is very low.

Meanwhile, strong onshore winds will create dangerous beach
conditions at all of our area beaches starting today and lasting
through at least Wednesday before gradually improving Thursday.
There is a High Risk of Rip currents at all area beaches through
Thursday night. Surf is also forecast to increase to 6 to 8 feet at
the Panhandle Beaches starting Tuesday and lasting through Wednesday
night. This will create dangerous beach conditions along with the
potential for beach erosion as TD#2 crawls westward.

TD#2 crawls away from our area late Tuesday night into Wednesday but
will leave behind ample tropical moisture. This will lead to
additional showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast for
Wednesday. An H5 trough over the eastern third of the country will
push a front into the Southeast Thursday before stalling it over our
area Friday and into the weekend. This front will be the focal point
for showers and storms late in the work week into next weekend.
Precipitable Water values (PWATs) are forecast to be between 2.2" to
2.5", which is over the 90th percentile for late July. In other
words, more locally heavy rain will be possible later this work week
into the weekend. Interestingly, the deterministic runs of the GFS
and EURO highlight the potential for a few inches of rain across
much of the area next weekend; however, the EURO AI and the GEFS and
EURO Ens aren't as enthused. Nonetheless, we'll monitor the trends
for next weekend.

As far as temperatures are concerned, abundant cloud cover and
periodic tropical downpours should lead to temperatures in the upper
80s to lower 90s across the area today and Tuesday. The middle 90s
take over across the area Wednesday and beyond. Overnight lows will
be quite tropical with middle to upper 70s the next several
mornings.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The terminals will be under the influence of the outer bands of
Tropical Depression 2 through the period. Continued -SHRA with
VCTS at TLH/ECP/VLD may lead to brief MVFR/IFR in heavier rain
until around sunset. Tonight, MVFR cigs are expected to develop
with highest confidence at TLH/ECP/VLD; have shortened the time
interval of MVFR at DHN/ABY based on the latest guidance. Cigs
gradually lift to VFR Tuesday morning, although confidence in
timing is lower. By late Tue AM, -SHRA w/VCTS at TLH/ECP/VLD.
Winds E/SE increase to around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Depression Two in the northeastern Gulf is forecast to
strengthen into a tropical storm on Monday while moving slowly
northwestward. The system gradually turns westward Tuesday as it
slowly heads away from our coastal waters. Winds continue to
strengthen through Tuesday before slowly diminishing east to west
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Several bands of tropical downpours
are forecast through at least Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Bands of tropical downpours and a few thunderstorms will continue to
rotate through the area around Tropical Depression Two (TD#2) the
next few days. Locally heavy rain is the primary concern for our
area along with some gusty winds within the heavier downpours. Gusty
winds are forecast along the immediate coast today and Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Bands of tropical downpours will spiral around TD#2 and into our
area through at least Wednesday. The heaviest rain is forecast along
the Forgotten Coast where 2" to 5" of additional rainfall is
expected with some isolated totals exceeding 7". Away from the
coast, these tropical downpours could produce a quick inch or two.
This could lead to localized instances of Flash Flooding the next
couple of days, especially if the heavier rain falls over more urban
areas.

Additional rounds of heavy rain, not directly related to TD#2, are
possible Friday and into the weekend as a front stalls near the
region. This is thanks to a front stalling near the area running
into ample moisture left over from TD#2.

Rivers from the Aucilla River eastward are relatively low, and with
the latest rainfall forecast, amounts are not sufficient to lead to
river flooding. From the Ochlockonee River Basin westward, rivers
are more susceptible to flooding, should more widespread significant
rainfall occur

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   88  75  88  77 /  80  70  90  30
Panama City   88  76  88  79 /  80  70  90  70
Dothan        91  74  89  75 /  60  20  70  20
Albany        93  75  91  75 /  60  10  60  10
Valdosta      92  75  91  76 /  70  20  70  10
Cross City    90  75  91  77 /  90  60  70  20
Apalachicola  85  79  86  80 /  90  90  90  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ108-
     112-114-115.

     Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ108-112-114-115.

     High Surf Advisory from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Tuesday to 5 AM EDT
     /4 AM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ735-751-752-755.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ730-765.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ770-772-775.

&&

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1118 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

FLZ028-128-201600-
Inland Taylor FL-Coastal Taylor FL-
1118 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY
THROUGH NOON EDT...

At 1118 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles north of Steinhatchee, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Perry, Pinland, Secotan, Boyd, Smith, Carbur, Foley, Salem,
Perry-Foley Airport, Bucell Junction, Athena, Hampton Springs, and
Fenholloway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2983 8338 2981 8348 3004 8376 3024 8365
      3020 8337
TIME...MOT...LOC 1518Z 167DEG 20KT 2989 8344

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1123 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

FLZ014-015-115-426-201615-
Inland Franklin FL-Southern Liberty FL-Inland Gulf FL-
Coastal Franklin FL-
1123 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GULF...SOUTHWESTERN
LIBERTY AND NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM EDT/1115
AM CDT/...

At 1123 AM EDT/1023 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 7 miles northwest of Carrabelle, moving northwest at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Carrabelle, Stonemill Creek, Wewahitchka, Carrabelle Beach, Morgan
Place, Vilas, High Bluff, Chipola Cutoff, Yent Place, Jensen Place,
Central City, Owens Bridge, Kern, Wilma, Sumatra, Lanark Village,
Nixon Garden, Twin Pole, and Fort Gadsden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3011 8522 3020 8510 3026 8488 2989 8453
      2976 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 1523Z 140DEG 27KT 2994 8474

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

55-SCHOLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
122 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

GAZ157>159-201800-
Brooks GA-Grady GA-Thomas GA-
122 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN GRADY...THOMAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN BROOKS COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

At 122 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thomasville, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Thomasville, Cairo, Boston, Ochlocknee, Pavo, Coolidge, Barwick,
Thomasville Municipal A/P, Grooverville, Capel, Dillon, Everett,
Enon, Merrillville, Chastain, Quality, Dixie, Akridge, Grady Co A/p,
and Elpino.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 8357 3068 8410 3108 8429 3108 8401
      3104 8400 3104 8380 3103 8379 3104 8375
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 164DEG 28KT 3080 8391

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

55-SCHOLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
135 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

FLZ015-027-115-127-426-201800-
Inland Franklin FL-Southern Liberty FL-Coastal Wakulla FL-
Coastal Franklin FL-Inland Wakulla FL-
135 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN WAKULLA...
SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 200
PM EDT...

At 135 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Carrabelle, moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sopchoppy, Alligator Point, Saint Teresa, Turkey Point, Buckhorn,
Panacea-Wakulla Airport, Mcintyre, Sanborn, and Curtis Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3004 8472 3013 8448 2990 8433 2981 8452
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 142DEG 16KT 2990 8447

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

55-SCHOLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
145 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

ALZ069-FLZ011-GAZ142>145-155>157-201830-
Houston AL-Jackson FL-Miller GA-Decatur GA-Baker GA-Mitchell GA-
Seminole GA-Grady GA-Early GA-
145 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN HOUSTON...NORTHEASTERN
JACKSON...NORTHERN DECATUR...NORTHWESTERN GRADY...MILLER...
SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL...WESTERN BAKER...SEMINOLE AND EARLY COUNTIES
THROUGH 230 PM EDT/130 PM CDT/...

At 144 PM EDT/1244 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Pelham
to 10 miles north of West Bainbridge to 6 miles east of
Donalsonville to 12 miles northeast of Marianna. Movement was north
at 25 mph. At 135 PM EDT. the Decatur County Airport gusted to 38
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Colquitt, Cottonwood, Bainbridge, Donalsonville, Blakely, Columbia,
West Bainbridge, Douglasville, Centerville, Malone, Greenwood,
Gordon, Iron City, Damascus, Brinson, Jakin, Bascom, Iveys Mill,
Crosby, and Grangeburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3132 8439 3094 8423 3086 8471 3074 8508
      3103 8531 3136 8506 3142 8462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 166DEG 20KT 3103 8425 3107 8455 3104 8476 3084
8506

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
221 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

GAZ127-145-146-158-159-201900-
Brooks GA-Worth GA-Colquitt GA-Mitchell GA-Thomas GA-
221 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL...
THOMAS...BROOKS...COLQUITT AND SOUTHERN WORTH COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM
EDT...

At 221 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Moultrie, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Moultrie, Thomasville, Quitman, Boston, Omega, Norman Park, Doerun,
Ochlocknee, Pavo, Coolidge, Riverside, Schley, Morven, Berlin,
Funston, Barwick, Sale City, Ellenton, Reed Bingham State Park, and
Minton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 8367 3143 8367 3143 8365 3133 8365
      3133 8358 3126 8353 3119 8352 3108 8358
      3105 8355 3105 8351 3064 8348 3068 8403
      3137 8407
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 164DEG 19KT 3107 8375

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

55-SCHOLL