Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
646 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 637 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- A complex of severe thunderstorms over northern Alabama may
  weaken before reaching our northern counties tonight.

- A cold front will bring a threat for severe storms and excessive
  rainfall tomorrow with high coverage of showers and
  thunderstorms.

- Mostly dry and "cooler" weather is expected following frontal
  passage mid week.

- A high risk of rip currents continues at the FL Panhandle
  beaches through Tuesday evening. Chances for advisory level
  boating conditions has increased for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Isolated showers and storms will continue to develop along a
stalled frontal boundary where convergence will be enhanced by
the sea breeze. A complex of severe thunderstorms over northern
Alabama will move into an unstable environment over central AL as
indicated by an 18Z KBMX sounding. It is certainly possible that
storms will still be strong to severe as the system will makes
it's way into the TAE area by evening.

A stronger front will approach the region from the north tomorrow.
This front, combined with any outflow boundary from the MCS will
provide plenty of lift within the in situ moist unstable airmass
in place across the region. MU CAPE around 2000 J/kg and
sufficient deep-layer shear could produce marginally severe storms
with both a wind and hail threat. Both SPC and WPC have the area
under a marginal risk for severe storms and excessive rainfall
respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

The front will sweep south of the area by Wednesday providing a
rare June respite from the hot and humid conditions we normally
expect this month for the middle to later part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A line of TSRA will be moving in from the NW at TAF issuance,
impacting KDHN and KABY first. These storms have been severe and
will likely produce significant gusts and reduced visibilities at
these terminals. It is unclear how well this line will hold
together at this moment, but there will be possible impacts later
at the remaining terminals as the line moves southward. Otherwise,
a cluster of storms becoming severe is also currently near ECP.
Eventually conditions will improve tonight, with another active
round expected near most terminals tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Gentle to moderate westerly breezes prevail through Tuesday
evening. Chances for advisory level conditions have increased mid
to late this week following frontal passage when winds increase
out of the east. High chances for showers and thunderstorms will
precede Wednesday's frontal passage with lingering convection
across the offshore waters on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A moist airmass and high rain chances should keep fire concerns
minimal through Tuesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
pose a frequent lightning, and gusty/erratic wind threat on Tuesday.
Wetting rains are possible are also expected tomorrow when a
reinforcing cold front moves from north to south. Drier air will
arrive following frontal passage for the mid to late week.

High afternoon dispersion indices are forecast over parts of the FL
Big Bend and panhandle Wednesday afternoon and will increase later
in the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Numerous showers and storms are expected again on Tuesday across the
area, which may produce locally heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall
totals over the next 2 days will be around 0.5-1.5 inches. But
localized high-end totals (10% chance of exceedance) of 3-5 inches
are possible, which could be enough to cause flash flooding. Flash
flood guidance across the area is 2.5-3.5 inches in 1 hour or about
3 to 4.5 inches in 3 hours.

On the riverine front, both the Shoal and the lower Choctawhatchee
Rivers are in action stage and are cresting. Outside of the Shoal
and lower Choctawhatchee, no other rivers are forecast to reach
action stage over the next 7 days with chances from ensemble members
being less than 30%.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  73  92  66 /  10   0  50  80
Panama City   89  76  89  68 /  30  10  40  70
Dothan        90  71  88  64 /  10  30  60  60
Albany        88  70  87  61 /   0  20  70  60
Valdosta      88  70  89  63 /   0  10  50  80
Cross City    92  75  93  68 /  50  10  50  80
Apalachicola  88  77  88  71 /  20  30  20  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112-
     114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for GMZ735.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM....Wool
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...Young

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
741 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     Marine Tstm Wind Mexico Beach            29.95N 85.42W
06/01/2026  M44 MPH          Bay                FL   Mesonet

            44 MPH gust reported from Ambient Wind.

&&

rh

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
743 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 WNW Miramar Beach     30.39N 86.39W
06/01/2026  E41 MPH          Walton             FL   Mesonet

            Ambient wind reported a gust of 41 MPH.

&&

rh

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
745 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 W Standleys Store     31.70N 85.09W
06/01/2026  E48 MPH          Clay               GA   Public

            Ambient Wind reported a gust of 48 MPH.

&&

rh

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
747 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Lowe Army Heliport      31.35N 85.75W
06/01/2026  M49 MPH          Dale               AL   AWOS

            AWOS station KLOR Fort Novosel reported a
            gust of 49 MPH.

&&

rh

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
754 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NW Shell Army Field   31.38N 85.87W
06/01/2026                   Coffee             AL   Utility Company

            Trees reported down north of enterprise in
            coffee county.

&&

rh

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