Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
144 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 141 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

- A Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk for severe storms continues
  through this evening. The main threats are strong to damaging
  wind gusts and large hail. A brief tornado or two cannot be
  ruled out.

- Hazardous marine conditions are expected today through tonight
  due to strong breezes southwest breezes ahead of a cold front. A
  Small Craft Advisory is in effect through late tonight for
  waters west of Apalachicola.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will prevail through the day
today as an upper level shortwave trough passes over the region.
The amount of bulk layer shear has decreased since this morning
but the low and midlevel instability has increased as temperatures
will have warmed to the low 70s. The threats of strong to
damaging wind gusts and large hail will remain until the cold
front passes later this evening. The tornado threat was always low
but it cannot be entirely ruled out. The SPC has the entire
region highlighted in a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe
weather.

The storm motion is nearly parallel to the trough, allowing for
training storms. Rainfall amounts above 2" are possible today in
some locations. Although this won't lead to widespread or riverine
flooding, there could be some nuisance ponding in urban/low-lying
areas. The cold front will pass through the region from northwest
to southeast this evening, clearing out the remaining
showers/storms. Behind the front, there will still be enough
moisture for a deck of stratus clouds and potentially fog to
linger into the day Sunday. With the lingering clouds,
temperatures for the day are expected to be slightly below NBM
guidance with highs in the mid-60s and low 40s for Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 141 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Following the frontal passage, upper level ridging will take over
with a surface high will be drifting east over the Carolinas.
This will lead to light easterly and southeasterly flow over the
region. During this time, there will be enough moisture for fog to
develop during the morning hours. However, there is uncertainty
as to how many mornings we can expect it to develop before the
surface high exits. It'll be something to monitor as we progress
through the week.

As the surface high moves off into the Atlantic, our winds will
shift to be more southwesterly, allowing for temperatures to warm
as we head towards the middle of the week.

Towards the end of the period, there looks to be a large trough
with an attending cold front that will cross the country bringing
another chance for showers and thunderstorms. However, the timing
and impacts at the moment are uncertain. PoPs for this upcoming
weekend are generally around 30-40 percent. We will continue to
monitor and provide updates as the system sets up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Restrictions across the region today, especially in SHRA and TSRA.
Gusty Southwest winds. SHRA/TSRA will end with the cold frontal
passage around 00Z. Low clouds will set in overnight with fog as
well. Restrictions in low clouds and fog slowly lift on Sunday
morning. Meanwhile, northwest winds will veer to the northeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the waters today as a
cold front moves through today into this evening. Along the
front, winds will increase to Advisory levels in our waters west
of Apalachee Bay, with Cautionary conditions to the east. These
storms can produce erratic winds with gusts above 34 kts, and have
the potential to produce large hail and a couple of waterspouts
can't be ruled out. Following the frontal passage, winds and seas
will begin to calm down. Favorable boating conditions are expected
to return by Monday and be tranquil through the rest of the work
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Beneficial rain has fallen and/or will continue to fall over all
districts today. For districts along and south of I-10, rain
accumulations may exceed 1" in some locations. During the
afternoon, thunderstorms may develop with the potential of
generating strong gusty winds. The tornado threat is very low.
There is also a hail threat with these storms. Following today's
cold front, winds will be northerly and will become easterly by
Monday. Dispersions on Sunday will be poor for most districts
south of I-10, and low in our AL and GA districts for the
afternoon. All around low dispersions are expected for Monday
afternoon. Moisture will linger following the front which would
lead to potential fog development each morning for the rest of the
weekend and into the start of the work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 141 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Ongoing showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue
through the region today into the evening. We have reports of 2+
inches for locations in Walton County from this morning. The
current set up shows the continued potential for training storms.
We expect widespread amounts of .25 - .75 inches of rain, with
isolated higher amounts. Some locations may experience nuisance
flooding from the training storms but, widespread or riverine
flooding is not expected. All this rain is beneficial however,
drought conditions are still ongoing. For more information on
local impacts from drought, please visit
www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   51  64  46  68 /  40   0   0   0
Panama City   53  65  49  68 /  30   0   0   0
Dothan        49  64  45  67 /  20   0   0   0
Albany        48  63  43  67 /  30   0   0   0
Valdosta      48  62  43  68 /  50   0   0   0
Cross City    53  66  46  73 /  60   0   0   0
Apalachicola  54  63  52  65 /  40   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ751-752-
     770-772.

&&

SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1247 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

ALZ068-FLZ007-009-031930-
Geneva AL-Holmes FL-North Walton FL-
1247 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL GENEVA...NORTH
CENTRAL WALTON AND NORTHWESTERN HOLMES COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM CST...

At 1246 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Florala, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Black, Miller Crossroads, Gordon, Leonia, Gaskin, Barker Store,
Cerrogordo, Prosperity, Darlington, Gritney, Arrant Settlement,
Sweetgum Head, Royals Crossroads, Glendale, Vaughanville, Smith
Crossroads, Hickory Hill, Izagora, New Hope, and Baker Settlement.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8629 3103 8574 3078 8574 3078 8575
      3079 8575 3079 8579 3088 8628
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 273DEG 41KT 3093 8622

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

73-YOUNG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
150 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

GAZ125-144-145-031930-
Baker GA-Dougherty GA-Mitchell GA-
150 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN DOUGHERTY...
NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND NORTHEASTERN BAKER COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM
EST...

At 150 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Baconton, or 10 miles north of Newton, moving east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Putney, Albany, Baconton, Walker, Lester, Freeman, Radium Springs,
Red Store Crossroads, Williamsburg, Southwest Ga Regional A/P, Pecan
City, and Ducker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3148 8400 3147 8399 3146 8400 3132 8400
      3138 8439 3154 8438 3154 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 278DEG 18KT 3146 8429

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

73-YOUNG