Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
326 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

- A HIGH RISK of rip currents at area beaches into the Memorial
  Day weekend. Beachgoers are urged to consult lifeguards on surf
  conditions and discouraged to enter the surf if red or double
  red flags are flying.

- Hot afternoon temperatures are expected through this weekend.
  Inland high temperatures will most commonly reach the 90 to 95
  degree range. Moderate heat-related impacts are expected,
  affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health
  systems and industries.

- Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and storms
  will be possible each day. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
  locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with stronger
  storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Moist southerly flow continues today as our forecast area sits
between a ridge of high pressure along the atlantic coastline, and a
shortwave enhancing more organized thunderstorm activity to our
west. The majority of organized activity is expected to diminish as
it pushes east into the panhandle this evening, with some activity
lingering a bit later into SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Cloud cover is
currently keeping daytime temperatures suppressed a bit this
afternoon, with seabreeze convection having form along the inland
big bend then pushing northward.

Saturday is expected to be more active, with the suppression of high
pressure sliding east, and some upper level enhancement in place.
SPC currently has our Georgia counties under a marginal risk. That
said, we can still expect some overall expanded thunderstorm
coverage, and the chance for a few strong to severe storms
still possible outside of the SPC marginal risk.

PWATS will remain elevated under continued southerly flow and a
similar setup next week, making any storms rather efficient
rainmakers. Temperatures will be staying slightly lower with highs
generally in the mid to upper 80s, though heat indicies are still
expected to be in the mid 90s to near 100.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Thunder will be the main aviation concern this TAF period. Have a
combo of prevailing VCTS with aftn tempo groups at all terminals
to acct for isolated convection off the seabreeze and a larger
storm cluster moving east near the I-65 corridor. Storms gradually
wane after sunset with southerly winds going lgt/calm. Some MVFR
stratus overspreads DHN/ABY late tonight, followed by an early
start to convection at ECP/DHN as soon as 12Z. Intro'd PROB30
groups for thunder everywhere to conclude this period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will continue for the next
several days with seas around 1-2 feet. Daily chances for showers
and storms continue, especially during the overnight and early
morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Winds will weaken over the weekend to around 10 mph, which will
yield good dispersions each day. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms are expected each afternoon, which may produce gusty,
erratic winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected each day.
Given the deep moisture with PWATs at or above the 95th percentile,
locally heavy rain will be possible in storms. This could lead to
localized flooding concerns, particularly in urban, low-lying, or
poor drainage areas. Most likely rainfall totals over the next 7
days will range from 0.5 to 1.5 inches across the FL counties with
1.5 to 2.5 inches across southeast Alabama and south Georgia. Higher
amounts are possible in localized areas. This rain will also help to
recharge our river systems, which are still quite low. This rain is
extremely beneficial for the area as severe to exceptional drought
continues. For the latest on drought impacts, please visit
www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   71  88  71  90 /  10  50  10  50
Panama City   73  86  73  87 /  50  50  20  30
Dothan        69  85  68  87 /  40  80  30  80
Albany        69  86  68  88 /  40  70  50  80
Valdosta      70  90  69  90 /  20  70  40  80
Cross City    73  92  72  92 /  20  40  30  80
Apalachicola  75  85  75  86 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Humphreys
LONG TERM....Humphreys
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Humphreys

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