Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
315 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front as it crosses
  the region on Sunday. A few of the storms may be strong.
  Beneficial rain will affect much of the region, but forecast
  rainfall amounts below 1 inch will offer no drought improvement.

- Lingering rain/showers are in the forecast through early to mid week
  before a drying trend occurs heading into next weekend.

- A prolonged period of high rip current risk will continue at all local
  beaches through this evening. Swim near a lifeguard, and heed
  the advice of beach flags.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

SHORT TERM [Tonight and Tomorrow...]

This afternoon's showers and thunderstorms should diminish within
a couple hrs after sunset. Quiet weather prevails tonight outside
of patchy to areas of fog developing along/west of the ACF basin
tomorrow morning. Some of the fog may become locally dense, so
exercise caution during your Easter Sunday AM commute. Widespread
lows in the low 60s are forecast.

The main focus tomorrow is the arrival of a front - per 15Z
surface analysis, extending from the Southern Plains to the Great
Lakes and attendant to a well-defined Parent Low swirling over the
Upper Midwest. This system will be accompanied by widespread
showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong. Severe
weather prospects are not that great given marginal deep-layer
shear (20-25 kts) and fleeting upper-level support. Daytime
instability will have to make up for these limiting factors, so
frontal timing is key. The main area of convection is forecast to
arrive at the Wiregrass region mid to late morning, then sags into
the Flint River Valley by the afternoon. The highest rain chances
are roughly along/NW of an Albany-Marianna-DeFuniak Spring line
(~65-90%) with a drastic drop off elsewhere.

High temperatures are trickier than normal given expected frontal
passage in the middle of the day. We are currently looking at a
solid gradient with maxT ranging from low-mid 70s (W-NW) to mid
80s (E-SE). Lastly, beachgoers are reminded to be aware of what
flags are flying with respect to rip current risk.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 4
2026

Convective coverage decreases with the gradual loss of diurnal
heating and upper-level forcing Sunday evening. However, some re-
development is expected Monday afternoon in response to a southern
stream impulse aloft forcing a wave low pressure trailing the
front across the Gulf. The best rain chances are along/south of
the I-10 corridor at ~35-45%. Patchy fog over Apalachee Bay into
the SE FL Big Bend may precede this activity Monday morning.

The axis of precipitation gradually shifts SE as the front and
it's attendant wave's forward eastward progress continues. Low-end
rain chances remain in the forecast, but are mostly confined to
the coast into the Suwannee Valley. There are signals of diurnal
convection Wednesday-Thursday as low-end PoPs spread a bit
northward compared to Monday-Tuesday. A drying trend then takes
place Friday.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s, then increase to
the upper 70s-low 80s on Friday. Widespread lows in the 50s will
be common starting Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Convection is developing in the FL panhandle into southeast AL.
Development will continue in this area with a general movement to
the north is expected. Isolated convection may also develop into
southwest GA through sunset. Convection will wind down after
sunset. Overnight, areas of fog and low stratus will develop
through the FL panhandle and southeast AL where flight conditions
will drop to LIFR generally from 08-14Z. A cold front will
approach our western counties towards the end of the TAF period
with the possibilities of showers accompanying the front though
the overall coverage of rain will be decreasing with time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A passing front some time Sunday afternoon or evening causes
winds to veer southerly and southwesterly. Patchy sea fog is
possible prior to the front's arrival. Winds then quickly freshen
out of the north following frontal passage, so small craft should
exercise caution west of Apalachicola by Monday morning. Rainy
weather is likely to persist into mid week from a wave low
pressure traversing the Gulf. The chances for advisory winds and
seas increase on Tuesday and persist the remainder of the work
week. Gale conditions are also possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

The main fire concerns over the next 3 days are high afternoon
dispersions on Sunday (ahead of a front) and Tuesday. The latter
is expected to be more widespread as we see winds increase out of
the NE. For tomorrow, the higher dispersions via west to SW
breezes focus from Apalachicola Nat'l Forest towards the I-75
corridor before the arrival of a front. This boundary will
initially be accompanied by widely scattered showers with embedded
thunderstorms, but convection loses steam after crossing the
Apalachicola-Flint River basin. Locations to the west stand the
best chance of experiencing a wetting rain.

Rain chances stick around on Monday despite frontal passage
thanks to a wave of low pressure traversing the Gulf. This system
forces a swath of showers that extends roughly along/south of the
FL state line. The axis of precipitation then gradually shifts SE
towards the Forgotten Coast and Suwannee Valley Tuesday. Lingering
showers are in the forecast through Thursday followed by a drying
trend heading into the weekend. East to NE winds prevail much of
the upcoming week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

The best chances for rain over the next several days are Sunday
through Tuesday, which will be much welcomed given our ongoing
extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought conditions. However,
forecast amounts are not terribly impressive. We then dry out
later this week into the weekend.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the
following websites:
weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   62  83  61  73 /   0  20  30  40
Panama City   65  75  59  72 /   0  20  50  40
Dothan        62  73  53  70 /  10  90  30  10
Albany        62  78  54  73 /  10  50  40  10
Valdosta      63  86  60  73 /   0  30  30  30
Cross City    61  84  64  77 /   0   0   0  40
Apalachicola  65  74  62  70 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Sunday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
310 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

ALZ065>069-FLZ007-009>013-016-112-326-GAZ121-123-142-143-155-156-
042045-
Coffee AL-Geneva AL-Houston AL-Dale AL-Henry AL-Gadsden FL-
Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-Northern Liberty FL-North Walton FL-
Coastal Bay FL-Holmes FL-Jackson FL-Washington FL-Miller GA-
Decatur GA-Calhoun GA-Clay GA-Early GA-Seminole GA-
310 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT DALE...GENEVA...HOUSTON...HENRY
AND COFFEE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...NORTHWESTERN WALTON
COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...NORTH CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY IN
BIG BEND FLORIDA...WASHINGTON...JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN BAY AND
NORTHERN CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...NORTHWESTERN
GADSDEN COUNTY IN BIG BEND FLORIDA...HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA...CLAY...WESTERN CALHOUN...EARLY...SEMINOLE...WESTERN
DECATUR AND MILLER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA THROUGH 445 PM
EDT/345 PM CDT/...

At 308 PM EDT/208 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms in the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and
extreme southwest Georgia. These storms are drifting around 5 to 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, hail up to penny sized, and heavy
         rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible. Heavy rains could product localized flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Daleville, Elba, Abbeville, Colquitt, Cottonwood, Fort Gaines,
Vernon, Bonifay, Geneva, Marianna, Headland, Dothan, Fort Rucker,
Ozark, Blakely, Chipley, Graceville, Donalsonville, Blountstown, and
Bainbridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8619 3153 8619 3154 8614 3156 8614
      3165 8524 3165 8494 3162 8494 3162 8468
      3143 8463 3126 8464 3126 8458 3108 8453
      3065 8468 3045 8502 3025 8550 3066 8575
      3094 8639 3099 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 188DEG 17KT 3103 8603 3070 8526 3072 8476

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

21-WD