Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
232 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- A Tornado Watch is in effect until 8 AM ET / 7 AM CT for areas
  along and west of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers. A squall
  line will move through the area with the threat of damaging wind
  gusts and a few tornadoes. Some strong storms are possible east
  of the watch area later this morning. Have multiple ways to
  receive warnings.

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for Thursday for open Gulf
  waters west of Apalachicola as well as St. Andrews Bay. Winds
  and seas will be hazardous to those operating smaller vessels.

- Chances of a late season frost/freeze remain low to medium for
  Monday and Tuesday nights. This will be particularly impactful
  for agricultural interests who have planted early.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A squall line is currently approaching I-65 early this morning in
southwestern Alabama. This line of storms has a history of producing
damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes. We expect the line of
storms to enter our westernmost counties by 2:30-3:30 AM CT.
There will be ample instability ahead of the line and deep layer
shear is quite high at 50-60 kt. The low-level jet should also
increase some over the next couple hours. Thus, a Tornado Watch
is now in effect until 8 AM ET/7 AM CT for areas generally along
and west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. Strong, potentially
damaging winds of 40-60 mph and a few tornadoes are the primary
threats. Once it gets east of the rivers, shear starts to back
off, instability wanes a bit, and the shortwave starts to dampen
out. Thus, the line is expected to lose some potency and
organization as it moves farther east. The caveat may be across
south Georgia where the low-level jet remains the strongest early
Thursday morning ahead of the line. Therefore, we still can't
rule out some gusty winds and a brief tornado or two across south
central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. We'll keep an eye on
things if we need to locally extend the watch in area and time.

Behind the front, winds will be quite gusty with frequent gusts of
25-35 mph expected. While not quite Wind Advisory level, some low-
end impacts such as small broken tree limbs and unsecured small
objects being blown around can't be ruled out. Also, if there are
any fires, the gusty winds could cause some control issues as we'll
quickly dry out behind the storms.

Temperatures will fall behind the front. Lows will be in the 40s
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

High pressure moves across our area Friday then moves off the
Atlantic coast by Saturday. Friday will be rather pleasant with
highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s, except near 80 in the southeast
Big Bend. The flow quickly becomes more southeasterly and southerly
over the weekend with a return to warm and humid weather, though not
record warmth as highs rise back into the low 80s.

Chances for showers and storms increase again Sunday ahead of the
next system as a shortwave moves into the southeast. The larger
parent trough swings a strong cold front through the area late
Sunday into Monday. Right now, shear and instability ahead of this
system don't appear favorable for severe weather, but we'll keep
watching.

Much colder air arrives next week with a medium to high chance (30-
70%) of temperatures favorable for a late-season front (36 or lower)
Monday and Tuesday nights. Additionally, there is a low chance (30%
or less) for a light freeze away from the coast, especially Tuesday
night. This would be hazardous for agricultural interests if
planting has started early. Also, we'll have much drier air in
place, which could lead to elevated fire danger next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Conditions will deteriorate this morning as a strong to occasionally
severe squall line sweeps across the area through the morning hours.
Ahead of the line, expect widespread IFR cloud cover. Gusty non-
thunderstorm winds will also occur both ahead of the squall line and
behind the squall line as winds quickly shift northwest with frontal
passage. Some severe storms could contain 35 to 45 knot gusts,
especially at western terminals of ECP/DHN.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A line of strong to potentially severe storms will move across the
marine area through early this afternoon. Strong wind gusts and
waterspouts will be possible. Behind the front, strong northerly
breezes are expected with a low chance (30% or less) of gale-force
gusts over our western waters. Small Craft Advisories will be in
effect for our waters through Friday morning, except through this
evening for St. Andrews Bay. Winds slacken heading into Friday with
moderate easterly breezes. Winds turn more southeasterly and
southerly Sunday ahead of the next cold front. Another round of
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Monday behind the
next cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A line of strong to severe storms will move across the area this
morning into early this afternoon. Strong, erratic winds are likely
with the stronger storms. Behind the storms, dispersions become high
as transport winds become northerly around 20-30 mph. Winds become
much lighter and more variable on Friday as high pressure moves
overhead with low dispersions likely. Transport winds become more
southeasterly Saturday and increase to 10 mph or so, leading to good
dispersions. Min RH values will remain above critical levels through
the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The fast motion of the squall line will keep rainfall totals under
an inch in most places. A couple localized spots could see as much
as an inch and a half. The next system doesn't look to bring much in
the way of meaningful rainfall, only up to half an inch at most.
Thus, no flood concerns are expected. The only hydrologic concern
remains the severe to extreme drought ongoing across the area.

For more information on local drought impacts, visit
www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  44  74  51 /  90   0   0   0
Panama City   70  47  71  53 /  80   0   0   0
Dothan        65  41  69  47 /  80   0   0   0
Albany        69  40  69  46 /  90   0   0   0
Valdosta      71  42  74  49 /  90   0   0   0
Cross City    74  47  80  55 /  80   0   0   0
Apalachicola  72  52  68  57 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GMZ730-755-
     765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Friday for GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ735.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM CDT Friday
     for GMZ751-752-770-772.

&&

SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
628 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSE Wilson Mill       31.13N 85.33W
03/12/2026                   Houston            AL   Law Enforcement

            Tree and powerlines down near Cottonwood Rd.

&&

BAS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
635 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W Sylvan Grove        31.35N 85.48W
03/12/2026                   Dale               AL   Law Enforcement

            Tree and powerlines down across CR 67.

&&

BAS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
639 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW Dothan            31.21N 85.40W
03/12/2026                   Houston            AL   Law Enforcement

            Downed powerline near intersection of Floyd
            and South Lena.

&&

BAS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
643 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ENE Ozark             31.46N 85.64W
03/12/2026                   Dale               AL   Law Enforcement

            Tree down on East College Street.

&&

BAS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
646 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WNW Kelly Springs     31.28N 85.48W
03/12/2026                   Houston            AL   Law Enforcement

            Multiple trees down blocking lanes along
            Brannon Stand Road and State Highway 52.

&&

BAS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
708 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 NW Vada               31.12N 84.48W
03/12/2026                   Mitchell           GA   Law Enforcement

            Tree down near GA Hwy 311.

&&

BAS